Mass. needs 60,000 new immigrants annually to sustain workforce

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The report says that the healthcare, higher education and construction industries are most vulnerable to a decline in the immigrant population.

Massachusetts will need at least 60,000 new immigrants each year through 2030 to maintain its working-age population and prevent a decline in the labor force, according to a new report. a report By Boston Indicators and MassInc Policy Center.

“We are people who came here to move the country forward,” said Carlene Desire, the organization’s executive director. Haitian Women’s Association of BostonBoston.com said. “It’s not about abusing the system here – it’s about how we contribute to looking after ourselves [and] Take care of our people.”

The report, released Thursday, warns that reduced immigration could contribute to slower economic growth and worsening labor shortages in key industries, including health care, higher education and construction.

Researchers pointed to an aging workforce, a population moving out of state, and a slowdown in immigration as factors leading to a potential labor shortage in the coming years.

Immigrants already play an important role in the state’s economy, making up nearly a quarter of the state’s workforce. In 2024, immigrants had an estimated $50.5 billion in purchasing power and contributed $7.4 billion in state and local taxes, according to the report.

To estimate future workforce needs, Boston Indicators and Mass Inc. analyzed trends in workforce aging, population growth, domestic migration, and new arrivals.

Researchers estimate that Massachusetts loses approximately 29,000 workers each year as residents retire or move out of the state. Because not all immigrants are of working age or participating in the labor force, offsetting these losses would require between 60,000 and 64,000 new immigrants arriving annually through 2030, according to the report.

The report estimates that Massachusetts could receive nearly 29,000 net international immigrants in 2026, less than half the number needed to maintain the state’s current workforce size.

At the national level, immigration is expected to decline significantly from recent highs. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that immigration could decline nearly 90% from its peak in 2024 by mid-2026, while separate estimates from the Brookings Institution suggest the U.S. could see a net loss of about 1 million immigrants by the end of the year, the report said.

The researchers also noted increased federal immigration enforcement efforts under the Trump administration, including Operation Patriot 1 and Operation Patriot 2, which resulted in the arrests of nearly 3,000 people in Massachusetts. Many of those arrested were immigrants from Brazil, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

“Although conditions are changing rapidly, and we are only less than a year and a half into Trump’s second term, national and state data already show a double-digit decline in migration flows,” the report said.

The report identifies health care, higher education, research and construction as among the industries most vulnerable to declining immigration.

With TPS in limbo, the healthcare workforce may face additional stress

The report notes that health care providers may face special challenges, as immigrants make up a large percentage of that workforce.

According to Massachusetts Senior Care Association40 percent of Massachusetts nursing facility workers are foreign-born, including nearly 2,000 frontline workers with Haitian Temporary Protected Status (TPS).

The TPS allows people from countries experiencing armed conflicts, environmental disasters, or other unusual circumstances to live and work legally in the United States. The report highlights concerns that changes to the program could further strain the state’s health care workforce.

A pending Supreme Court decision could determine whether the Trump administration is able to move forward with efforts to dismantle the program. In Massachusetts, ending TPS protections for Haitians could affect approximately 45,000 residents who rely on the program to live and work in the United States.

Nursing homes may be particularly vulnerable because they already operate on tight margins and are chronically understaffed. Nursing facilities statewide currently face direct care vacancy rates of about 13 percent, according to the report.

Last month, Sen. Ed Markey Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley released a report examining the potential impact of ending TPS protections for Haitian immigrants on the health care system. Lawmakers argued that ending the program would exacerbate workforce shortages and limit access to care.

“If the Trump administration ends legal protections for Haitian workers, everyone will be worse off,” Warren said in a statement to Boston.com. “The health care system is already strained by deep federal budget cuts, and this harsh decision will jeopardize patient care nationwide. We must keep fighting.”

According to Legislators reportmembers LeadingAge Uncertainty surrounding immigration status is already impacting service providers, with some workers losing work licenses and others leaving their jobs early due to concerns about their future legal status, she reported.

Haitian immigrants have become an increasingly important part of the state’s health care workforce, working as certified nursing assistants, managers, administrative staff and home health care workers, Desire said.

Nursing homes and hospitals are already struggling to hire workers, and further losses could increase workloads, contribute to burnout, and impact patient care, Desire said.

“If they lose [TPS workers]“Things could get very difficult for nursing homes,” said Desire, who has family members who work in health care.

Many Haitian immigrants affected by TPS have lived in the United States for decades and built lives, careers and families in Massachusetts, she said.

“We have an amazing workforce when it comes to the Haitian people,” Desire said. “They work hard. They respect people. They do what they have to do. And they are team players.”

Immigrants contribute beyond the health care sector, occupying essential jobs in schools, transportation systems and small businesses across the state, Desire said.

“They end up contributing a lot more than people think,” she said. “I think whether it’s the jobs they hold, the taxes they pay, or many other things, they are very important to the Massachusetts economy today.”

International students and migrant workers enhance education

The Boston Indicators and MassInc report also highlights the role of immigrants in Massachusetts’ higher education sector.

The report says Massachusetts has the largest number of international students in the country by total higher education enrollment and the fourth-largest number of international students overall, after California, New York and Texas.

The researchers noted that international students contribute to the state’s economy by paying tuition fees and spending on housing, food, transportation, and other local services.

Immigrants also support schools in less visible but essential roles, including as bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and aides who support students with disabilities, Desire said.

The construction industry is vulnerable to a lack of immigration

Migrant workers play a critical role in building new housing in a state already suffering from a severe housing shortage, according to the report.

Boston Indicators and MassInc conducted interviews with homebuilders, who described growing workforce instability and project delays related in part to concerns about increased immigration enforcement activity.

“Although projects have not been completely shut down by the migration crackdown, employers have repeatedly warned that the gradual erosion of the workforce could lead to delays and additional costs that compound over time, especially when combined with rising interest rates and rising material costs,” the report said.

An Uncertain Future: How the Immigration Crackdown Threatens Massachusetts’ Workforce by Samantha.Ganzer