China’s Xi warns Trump that differences over Taiwan could lead to conflict

BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping warned President Donald Trump on Thursday that the two countries could clash over Taiwan if the issue is not handled properly, an unusually harsh warning that contrasted with the US leader’s praise of his counterpart.

The exchanges at an upcoming summit in Beijing highlighted how far apart Trump and Xi are on thorny issues, including the war in Iran, trade disputes and Washington’s relations with Taiwan, which is self-governing but which China claims as part of its territory.

She also indicated that Trump’s three-day visit to China is likely to be longer in terms of pomp and symbolism than achieving substantive political or economic breakthroughs.

The two leaders met for nearly two hours behind closed doors in the Great Hall of the People after an elaborate welcome ceremony that included cannons thundering, a marching band playing “The Star-Spangled Banner,” the Chinese national anthem, and hundreds of schoolchildren waving flowers and American and Chinese flags.

According to a post on X by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, Xi told Trump that “the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-US relations.”

“If the matter is handled properly, bilateral relations will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will face clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship at great risk,” she wrote.

This came after a brief public exchange before the meeting began, in which Trump offered platitudes, telling Xi: “You’re a great leader. Sometimes people don’t like me saying that, but I say it anyway, because it’s true.”

“It is an honor to be your friend,” Trump said, before pledging that “the relationship between China and the United States will be better than ever.”

Xi was far more explicit than Trump in his opening remarks, expressing hope that the United States and China could avoid conflict and asking “whether the two countries are able to move beyond the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new model of major power relations.”

This is a common term in foreign policy studies, and refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established power, the result is often war. Xi’s use of the term when Trump showed optimism was noteworthy and was a foreshadowing of his closed-minded comments on Taiwan.

However, Xi used a more conciliatory tone when describing the overall relationship. “Cooperation benefits both sides, while confrontation harms both sides,” Xi said. “The two countries should be partners, not competitors.”

Economic questions raised by the Iran war loom

After their meeting, Xi took Trump on a tour of the Temple of Heaven in Beijing, and the couple planned to attend a state banquet in the evening.

In its summary of what was said confidentially, the White House said the meeting touched on ways to enhance economic cooperation, including expanding market access for American companies in China and increasing Chinese investments in American industries.

That assessment did not mention Taiwan directly, but regarding Iran, it said both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for oil and natural gas, should remain open. The closure of the strait has stranded tankers and caused energy prices to rise, threatening global economic growth.

The war and its effects dominate Trump’s domestic agenda and fuel concerns about the potential weakness of the US economy heading into the midterm elections in November – when Republicans will look to maintain control of Congress.

China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News that Trump will defend Beijing to exert its influence over Iran, noting that administration officials will confirm that “economies are collapsing because of this crisis,” which means that consumers “are buying less Chinese products.”

It is not clear whether Trump has convinced Xi to exert his influence. The White House said Xi opposes imposing any tariffs on ships transiting the strait, and expressed interest in the possibility of China buying more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on Gulf oil in the future.

Taiwan issues remain controversial

Xi’s warning on Taiwan reflects China’s dissatisfaction with the US plan to sell weapons to the island. The Trump administration has approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, but has not yet begun implementing it.

The United States has a long-standing commitment to helping the island defend itself if it comes under attack, but Trump has shown greater ambivalence toward Taiwan, raising speculation about whether the president could be persuaded to withdraw US support.

Meanwhile, Taiwan expressed gratitude for Washington’s “long-term support.”

“The government views all measures that contribute to regional stability and manage potential risks from authoritarian expansion positively,” Michelle Lee, a spokeswoman for the Taiwan Prime Minister, told reporters. She added that the United States “has repeatedly affirmed its firm and clear position in support of Taiwan.”

The United States still hopes to achieve trade gains

The White House insisted that Trump would not make the trip without looking to secure results before he departs, suggesting there could be upcoming announcements on trade.

This could include China’s commitment to buy US soybeans, beef and aircraft. Trump administration officials also want to work on establishing a trade council with China to address trade disputes between the two countries.

The leaders discussed trade on Thursday, with Xi saying the door of opportunity for China would open wider. Xi also met with a group of American business leaders who accompanied Trump to China.

But neither party has yet provided specific details about what Trump’s trip might entail at a time when close economic ties between Beijing and Iran could complicate matters.

George Chen, a partner at Asia Advisory Group, said Xi had made his “red line” on Taiwan clear. But Chen said Xi also expressed a welcoming tone on the economic front and a desire to ensure China is a place where profits can flow to the American business community.

The United States and China reached a trade truce last year that calmed each side’s threats to impose heavy tariffs on the other. The White House says there are ongoing discussions and shared interest in extending the agreement.

The two leaders also discussed continuing to halt the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States, and increasing Chinese purchases of American agricultural products, according to the White House.