Boston Bruins
A strong showing from Jeremy Swayman and a punishing forecheck will help Boston’s chances in the first round of the playoffs.
Nikita Zadorov did a lot of damage against the Sabers earlier this season. (Ken McGaa for The Boston Globe)
For the first time since 2011, the Buffalo Sabers are back in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Boston Bruins are hoping to make it a shortened postseason for their Atlantic Division foe.
Boston will face Buffalo in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs — with Game 1 scheduled for Sunday at KeyBank Center.
Buffalo may have momentum and home-ice advantage on its side, but the Bruins — who went 3-1-0 against the Sabers during regular season play — have some advantages in this series.
“I think our teams are built a little differently, in that they’re a little smaller and faster, and we’re probably bigger and heavier,” Casey Mittelstadt said Thursday. “I think it’ll be a good contrast between that. I think it’s a good matchup for us. … It’ll be a battle both ways.”
Here are four things the Bruins must do if they want to stop the Sabers:
Suiman must stand tall
You can play with all the basic stats, key metrics, star power, depth, momentum, etc.
When it comes to the game of hockey, there is no greater equalizer than strong goaltending.
And if Jeremy Swayman Up to the task, the Bruins have to like their odds in this best-of-seven series.
Swayman should be in consideration for a Vezina Trophy this spring — often belying Boston’s fragile defensive structure in 2025-26.
Swayman went 31-18-4 with a .908 save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average in an encouraging bounce-back campaign – With his goals saved higher than the expected average of 28.8 He ranks second in the league among qualifying goaltenders behind only Washington’s Logan Thompson (29.3).
The Bruins’ top goaltender has enjoyed his reps against Buffalo over the years – posting an 8-1-1 record in his career against the Sabers with a .925 save percentage.
Buffalo’s scoring has also been strong this season, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon splitting reps between the pipes.
Luukkonen finished the year well, going 11-2-1 with a .918 save percentage after the Olympics. But Boston outplayed the 27-year-old goaltender in their last meeting, scoring four goals against him on 31 shots in a comeback win in Buffalo on March 25.
Luukkonen — who ranks 17th in the NHL in goals scored above expected (10.5) — has never appeared in a postseason game.
The last time Swayman made the playoffs in 2024, he nearly led Boston to a first-round win over the Maple Leafs — while also pushing the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers to six games into the next round.
Swayman finished that playoff run with a save percentage of .933 in 12 games. While his qualifying campaign ended in the second round. His 13.3 goals saved above were expected after the season He still leads all goaltenders in the playoffs.
If Swayman puts up a similar performance in the postseason, he could cover for many of the other shortcomings on Boston’s roster.
Boston’s top line needs to wake up
The Sabers field one of the deepest forward groups in the Eastern Conference, with Tage Thompson, Josh Norris and Ryan McLeod anchoring a line with plenty of skill and scoring punch.
If Boston wants to stay off the ropes at 5-on-5, they’ll need to counterattack with some offensive contributions up and down their lineup.
Boston’s second line of Pavel Zacha, Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson has been a 5-on-5 buzzsaw all season – Outperforming competitors 42-22 in 583 minutes of play.
The fourth line of Sean Kuraly, Tanner Guinot and Mark Castelich appears to be heating up. The trio has combined for four goals and 10 points in their last two games.
And a third line of elder statesmen in 21-year-old Fraser Minten, 23-year-old Marat Khusnutdinov, and 19-year-old James Hagens could be Boston’s best X-factor if that trio can spark some offense further down the depth chart.
But Boston’s 5-on-5 offense will take a big hit if the Bruins’ first line of David Pastrnak, Morgan Geiki and Elias Lindholm continues to falter.
Any offensive lineup that includes a power forward in Pastrnak and a 39-goal scorer like Geki should tip the ice in Boston’s favor. But that was not the case this season.
In 348 minutes of this set of 5-on-5 reps this season, the Bruins have already been outscored 19-16.
Giki’s recent goalscoring surge (five goals in his last four games) is a welcome sight after he went 17 games without scoring from 7 March to 5 April. However, if this line remains neutral, Marco Storm He will once again need to adjust his lines in order to keep Boston’s offense buzzing.
If Buffalo’s top defensive duo of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson can contain Boston’s top forwards, spreading the wealth across the Bruins’ lineup represents the next course of action.
Tilting the ice during special teams
This series may come down to which team finally decides to wake up.
Boston’s power play was a consistent method of offense for most of the year, with assistant coach Steve Spott overhauling a unit that consistently took advantage of its opportunities from October through early February.
But, after being on the field as a top-five player for much of the season, Boston’s men’s advantage has diminished since his return from the Olympic break.
The power play Bruins — who finished the season ranked ninth in the league (23.4) — converted just 16.2 percent of their chances after the Milan-Cortina games, ranking just 28th in the league during that stretch.
Getting that power back online is a priority for Spott and Co., with Hagens’ skating ability and knack for creating clean zone entries worth keeping an eye on if the rookie joins the lineup.
But the Sabers aren’t exactly the type of team that makes life easy on the man advantage. Buffalo’s PK ranks fourth in the NHL — denying 82.1 percent of opposing power plays — while their 10 shorthanded goals are third-most in the league.
Even if Boston’s power play works in this series, the Bruins’ knack for finishing in the box may not burn them, given that Buffalo’s power play has been largely pedestrian.
The Sabers converted just 19.8 percent of their power plays, 19th in the league. They’ve been worse in the final stretch of the season, with only the Kraken and Blackhawks performing worse on the power play than Buffalo (14.0 percent) since March 9.
There is a lot of talent in the power plays in both Boston and Buffalo. Whoever starts out finding traction can go a long way toward determining who wins their ticket to the next round.
Softening Imp Vectors
Cam Neely’s preseason decision that the Bruins would be “tough” and play with “piss and vinegar” was largely evident on the ice.
The Bruins could have a lot of postseason experience and some high-end talent at important roster spots. But Boston’s willingness to endure a lot of pain against an opponent has been one of the driving factors in the Bruins’ turnaround.
With players like Mark Kastelic, Tanner Jeannot, and Nikita Zadorov, teams facing the Bruins tend to stock up on ice bags before games at TD Garden.
When Sturm is called, retrieving pucks and moving them across the neutral zone is akin to navigating a minefield against Boston.
Over the course of a seven-game series, Boston’s relentless pressure to check bruisers and willingness to finish off their hits could wear down an immensely talented Buffalo D team that may look over their shoulders with some trepidation as this matchup continues into the first round.
Just as the Florida Panthers made an unexpected playoff run in 2023 by hitting skaters on the glass and forcing turnovers, the Bruins will need to follow a similar script against Buffalo — especially against foul-prone D-men under pressure like Logan Stanley, Bowen Byram and Owen Power.
It’s a punitive approach — and one the Bruins will need to adhere to if they want to level the playing field against opponents that boast more talent and depth.
Given what we’ve seen so far this year, Boston should have no qualms about making life miserable for its opponents.
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