World Cup
Boston is already saying a sad farewell to the Tartan Army. But calculations suggest Scotland could play another match in Foxborough later this month.
Members of the Tartan Army sing and cheer during a school bus ride to Foxborough for Scotland’s World Cup match. Jess Rinaldi/Global Staff
After Scotland lost 1-0 to Morocco at Boston Stadium (Gillette Stadium) on Friday night, Bostonians and visiting Scots alike began to bid a heartfelt farewell.
“Goodbye Scotland” Read the headline at MassLive. “I’m already mourning the loss of the Scots and the atmosphere of this World Cup.” he said in a post on Reddit. “Thank you Boston,” read A Thank you letter From a departing member of the Tartan Army.
But Boston should not despair just yet: as of Saturday morning, Scotland are tentatively scheduled to play a third match at Boston on Monday, June 29, if current results hold.
It’s a scenario that would excite Scottish fans and Bostonians alike — especially those who own downtown bars. But how likely is this to happen? The answer is complicated.
Explaining the FIFA rules for determining third place
In previous World Cups, the group stage consisted of 32 teams divided into eight groups of four. The four teams will play each other once, receiving three points for a win, one point for a draw, and zero points for a loss. The top two teams from each group will then qualify for the knockout stage.
Thanks to the recent expansion of the World Cup stadium to accommodate 48 teams, there are now 12 groups instead of eight. At the end of the group stage, the eight third-placed teams with the most points from group play will qualify for the knockout stage.
If a team is equal on total points, the next tiebreaker is (in order): goal difference, total goals scored, team conduct score (how many yellow and red cards the team received,) and finally, the FIFA World Rankings.
As of now, Scotland sit in third place, although that is likely to change when more groups play their second match.
How likely is Scotland to advance?
The first step for Scotland to play a third match in Boston is for the team to qualify for the round of 32.
Scotland has already clinched at least third place in Group C after its head-to-head victory over Haiti. Scotland currently have three points and have a 73.57% chance of qualifying for the second round. Per Opta statistics.
Scotland’s chances will increase significantly if the team can draw against Brazil on June 24, bringing the group stage total to 4 points. Before the tournament, BBC number crunchers I calculated that any team that ranks third and manages to obtain 4 points in the group stage will have a 99.81% chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds.
How likely is it that third-placed Scotland will end up in Boston?
The short answer? The odds are very good. But how do we get to this answer is very complicated.
The knockout match will take place on June 29 at Boston Stadium, pitting the winner of Group E against the third-place finisher from Group A, B, C, D or F.
If all of these teams qualify, the order in which they finish in third place will not matter. The only thing that matters is Any combination Of eight teams advancing.
To explain this further: If the eight third-placed teams that advance to the Round of 32 came from Groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H, this would be one hypothetical result. If me and the teams from Groups A, B, C, D, E, F and G qualify, it will be a different second scenario.
All in all, a mind-boggling set 495 possible permutations Those in third place advance.
In depth attachment FIFA World Cup Regulations Guidethere is a table that lists exactly where each team will be placed in the knockout bracket based on which of these 495 scenarios will be played out.
Of the 330 permutations that Scotland offers, 231 (70%) of them It will open them up at Boston Stadium for a knockout match.
Other possibilities for Scotland and Boston Stadium
If Scotland qualify, the only other possible points for relegation would be on June 30 against Mexico in Mexico City (29% chance) or the winner of Group A in New Jersey (less than 1%).
As for Boston, if Scotland don’t return, the next team likely to play in Foxborough on June 29 will be the third-placed team in Group D, which will be either Australia or Paraguay.
Ultimately, many Scotland fans who have already spent more than a week in Boston may return home regardless of what happens to the team in the future. But to be safe, maybe Boston bars should consider keeping them “Yes sir, I can dance.” On music until the end of the month. And they should definitely Stock up on beer.
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