Trump administration prepares to seek Raul Castro indictment as it pressures Cuba, AP sources say

Miami — The Justice Department is preparing to file an indictment against former Cuban President Raul Castro, three people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Friday, as President Donald Trump threatens possible military action against the communist-run island.

One of the people told the AP that the potential indictment is related to Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 downing of two planes operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Castro was Minister of Defense at the time.

The three people spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the ongoing investigation. The Cuban government did not respond to a request for comment on the possible indictment, which was reported earlier by CBS.

Any criminal charge against Castro, which would need to be approved by a grand jury, would dramatically escalate tensions with Havana and raise expectations of U.S. military action in Cuba like the one that occurred in January in Venezuela to bring President Nicolas Maduro to New York on drug trafficking charges.

After Maduro’s ouster, the Trump administration quickly turned its attention to its ally Cuba and ordered an economic blockade that choked off fuel shipments to Cuba, leading to severe power outages, food shortages and a collapse in economic activity across the island.

The Iran War gave Cuba a break

It seems that the American war in Iran gave Cuban leaders some relief from the United States’ talk of regime change.

As Trump seeks to end that conflict, speculation is growing that he may soon turn his attention to Cuba after earlier this year vowing to “take friendly control” of the country if its leadership does not open its economy to US investment and expel US adversaries.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus who specializes in Latin America at the University of California-San Diego, said any accusation against Castro would resonate with voters in South Florida, but would be unlikely to persuade war planners at the Pentagon to fight a second, optional war — this time just 90 miles from Florida.

“There is no easy version of Venezuela,” Feinberg said. “There is no clear line of succession and it is difficult to imagine regime change without US forces on the ground.”

The Associated Press reported in March that the U.S. attorney in Miami had created a special working group of prosecutors and federal law enforcement to build cases against senior Cuban officials amid calls from several South Florida Republicans to reopen the investigation into Castro’s alleged role in the 1996 downing of the plane.

Trump calls Cuba a “degenerate country”

Trump declined to discuss a possible indictment on Friday, referring the matter to the Justice Department.

“But they need help, you know, and you’re talking about a country in decline, it’s actually a nation or country in decline, so we’ll see,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “We have a lot to talk about Cuba, but maybe not today.”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Castro’s grandson, during a high-level visit to the island on Thursday.

Castro, 94, took over as president from his ailing brother Fidel Castro in 2006, then handed power to a handpicked loyalist, Miguel Díaz-Canel, in 2018.

Although he has largely avoided the spotlight since his retirement in 2021 as head of the Cuban Communist Party, it is widely believed that he wields power behind the scenes, a fact underscored by the emergence of his grandson, Raul Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, who previously met secretly with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The downing of the plane in the Florida Strait was a watershed moment in relations between Cuba and the United States

Cuba’s downing of two Cessna planes in 1996 operated by the Brotherhood of Rescue was a watershed moment in decades of hostilities between the two countries.

At the time, President Bill Clinton was cautiously exploring ways to reduce tensions with a Cold War foe, but faced stiff opposition from exiles who organized flights into Havana seeking publicity, dropped anti-Castro leaflets, and aided boatloads of Cubans fleeing economic deprivation and one-party rule.

The Cubans had warned the US government for several months that it was prepared to defend against what it saw as deliberate provocations. But these calls went unheeded, and on February 24, 1996, missiles fired by Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets shot down two unarmed civilian Cessna planes outside Cuban airspace, according to an investigation by the International Civil Aviation Organization. A third plane carrying the organization’s leader miraculously survived.

“In hindsight, it appears that Castro’s motive was to slow engagement with Clinton because they needed the United States as a foreign enemy to justify their national security posture,” said Richard Feinberg, who worked on Cuban issues at the National Security Council at the time.

They succeeded beyond their wildest dreams,” Feinberg said.

Shortly after the plane was shot down, Congress passed what became known as the Helms-Burton Act, which codified the 1962 US trade embargo and made dealing with Cuba much more complicated for successive US presidents.

To date, the United States has convicted only one person of conspiracy to commit murder in connection with the takedown of the Brotherhood of Salvation. Gerardo Hernandez, the leader of a Cuban spy network dismantled by the FBI in the 1990s, was sentenced to life in prison but was released by President Barack Obama during a prisoner exchange in 2014 as part of an attempt to normalize relations with Cuba.

Two fighter pilots and their commander have also been charged, but are beyond the reach of US law enforcement while living in Cuba.

Castro was previously investigated for drug trafficking

Castro has previously been the subject of a US criminal investigation. In 1993, federal prosecutors in Miami considered charging him and several other senior Cuban military officials with cocaine trafficking based on testimony from Colombian traffickers who appeared in the drug trial of former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, the Associated Press reported in 2006.

But an indictment was never brought amid concerns about the witness’s credibility, as well as concerns that it could threaten U.S. intelligence operations and impede Clinton’s initial outreach.