The most likely worst-to-first team in the NFL next season finished above .500 last year. Detroit went 9-8 in 2025 and still landed last in the NFC North, and that contradiction is exactly why the Lions top The Hot List of 2026 worst-to-first candidates.
Host Ian Cummings ranked five teams with a realistic path from the division basement to first place: the Titans, Raiders, Giants and Saints, with Detroit at No. 1. None is a lock. Eight divisions means eight theoretical shots, and most of those teams have too much ground to make up.
Why the Detroit Lions Top the Worst-to-First Rankings
Detroit is the rare last-place team that never actually collapsed. “Don’t count out Motor City Dan Campbell,” Cummings said, pointing to a coach who has averaged better than 11 wins a season since 2022. The Lions lost 326 games to injury in 2025, which Cummings pegged as the second-highest total in the league, and the healthy core still produced.
By PFSN’s impact metrics, five Detroit offensive players graded inside the top 10 at their positions, including Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell, the second-rated offensive lineman in the league. That nucleus is intact. The defense carries more questions, with Kerby Joseph (knee, missed the final 11 games) and Brian Branch (December Achilles tear) both working back from injury.
“As long as the Lions can get back to 80 to 90 percent health across the board, I think there’s a good chance that they can stay competitive and potentially exploit the weaknesses of the Packers and the Bears,” Cummings said. In a division with Green Bay and a fast-rising Chicago, health is the whole argument.
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The next-best path runs through the league’s softest division. New Orleans checks in at No. 2, and the case rests on the division as much as the roster. “No division in football is more winnable for a potential worst-to-first team than the NFC South,” Cummings said. Carolina just won it at 8-9.
Tyler Shough enters his second season in Kellen Moore’s system, with first-round wideout Jordyn Tyson added to a group that already features Chris Olave. Near .500 has been enough to take that division before, and the Saints have flirted with it for years.
New Coaches Give the Giants, Raiders and Titans a Puncher’s Chance
The bottom three of the list share a theme. Each hired a coach this offseason and is betting on the stability it has lacked.
The Giants landed the biggest name. John Harbaugh, “consistently seen as a floor raiser for organizations that need the kind of stability, and the Giants have been hurting for it,” per Cummings, takes over a roster with Jaxson Dart entering his second season. Harbaugh’s track record backs the framing. He inherited a Ravens team that went 5-11 in 2007 and led it to 11-5 in his 2008 debut, a six-win turnaround.
Las Vegas sits fourth, and the division is the problem. The Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers all profile as contenders. The hope is Klint Kubiak, fresh off coordinating Seattle’s Super Bowl 60 offense, paired with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and a defense anchored by Maxx Crosby.
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Tennessee rounds out the five. Robert Saleh, with Brian Daboll calling plays for second-year quarterback Cam Ward, gives the Titans a defensive identity. Cummings called Saleh “one of the most proficient defensive minds at getting organic pressure with four guys down,” and a rebuilt front could punish the shaky pass protection in Houston and Jacksonville.
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None of these climbs is likely. The Lions are different because they were already here a year ago, just hurt. Get the bodies back, and worst-to-first stops sounding like a long shot.