The Browns, just like every offense, has tells. Some are schematic and some are just habits. Either way, the job the week of a game is to find them before Sunday and then figure out whether the defense on the other side is built to take advantage. It’s an incredibly small sample size, but I endeavored to see what kind of tells the Browns showed in Week 1. This isn’t a player matchup deep dive. For that, please check out the fantastic work by Bailey Adams here.
The Browns on First Down
The Browns had a successful first down offense last week. Successful, but not explosive. Running on first down kept the ball out of Deshaun Watson’s hands and led to second-and-manageable. They used 21 personnel at one of the highest clips in the league. They also ran counter at a league leading rate.
They ran out of shotgun at an inverted rate, where the league passes out of shotgun at an almost 70% clip while Cleveland does so at a 27% rate. If they go shotgun, the Bucs should drop a seventh man in the box. But if the Browns go under center on first down, Todd Bowles should run blitz. Cleveland struggled to pass protect on the under-center play action snaps, with Cover 4 behind it. Arizona ran a version of this against the Chargers last week.
— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) September 19, 2026
The Browns got the same productivity out of their run game when facing a light box (six defenders) as a neutral one (seven defenders). The Bucs can use this to their advantage by running more two-high shells against 11 personnel, but I’d rather them stick with neutral or even heavy boxes and dare Watson to be even an average quarterback, which I don’t think he is.
Browns on Second Down
This is where Todd Bowles can lean into his Cover 3 if Tampa Bay can push Cleveland into second-and-medium or longer. But Watson and the Browns struggled with two-high structures even more. Cover 6 and Cover 4 could be strong changeups for this matchup, especially from a post-snap rotation. The Jaguars were able to run these coverages successfully last week and it could help the Bucs confuse Watson while simultaneously operate as a changeup from their own tendencies.
Browns on Third Down
The Browns struggled on third down last week trying to beat man coverage.
— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) September 19, 2026
Tampa Bay’s corners aren’t as strong in man coverage, so the Bucs should look to alternative avenues. This is where their Cover 3 behind a fire zone can be most effective.