The No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish finished the regular season with a dominant 49-20 win over the Stanford Cardinal to seal a 10-2 regular season record. Despite winning 10 straight games, the Fighting Irish dropped one place in the latest College Football Playoff ranking, behind the Alabama Crimson Tide.
According to PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter, coach Marcus Freeman’s team has an 84.5% chance of making the 12-team field.
Notre Dame Predicted To Drop Out of Playoff Race by Insider
The Fighting Irish’s chances of being included in the playoff have been gauged against those of the No. 12 Miami Hurricanes, given the teams’ similar records (10-2). Both teams’ chances of being included in the field hinged on various results on conference championship weekend going their way.
The No. 11 BYU Cougars were blown out 34-7 by the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 championship game, further complicating the playoff permutations for Miami and Notre Dame.
After the game, Fox Sports analyst Aaron Torres tweeted his prediction that the Fighting Irish would be left out of the playoff by the College Football Playoff Committee after the Big 12 result.
“Truly believe the College Football Playoff field (ACC champ) is set. With BYU losing, Notre Dame + Miami are now next to each other in the standings. Easy for the committee to compare Notre Dame vs. Miami now – and Miami gets in with the head-to-head win. It’s happening,” Torres tweeted.
Truly believe the College Football Playoff field (ACC champ) is set.
With BYU losing – Notre Dame + Miami are now next to each other in the standings.
Easy for the committee to compare Notre Dame vs. Miami now – and Miami gets in with the head-to-head win.
Its happening ✍️✍️ https://t.co/jqif5v8pYI
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) December 6, 2025
Crucially, the Hurricanes hold the edge over the Fighting Irish after beating them 27-24 in their season-opener.
Mario Cristobal Makes Case for Miami Over Notre Dame
During Friday’s segment of ‘The Herd’ podcast, Miami coach Mario Cristobal made a strong case for the Hurricanes to be included in the 12-team field over the Fighting Irish, citing their head-to-head record as the deciding factor.
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“When you look at all of it, we had an opportunity to play four common opponents,” Cristobal said, “In three of those games, our results were significantly more impressive and more dominant than Notre Dame’s.
“More significantly, we played, and we won the game, and never in the history of the CFP have two had a head-to-head and never once has the loser advanced, and the winner of that game back held back.”
Should the Fighting Irish be left out of the College Football Playoff, it would be a stunning reversal of fortunes after Freeman’s team reached the national championship game against the Ohio State Buckeyes last season.
A one-point loss (41-40) to the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies and a three-point loss to the Hurricanes are the margins that could cost Notre Dame another tilt at the national championship.