Baker Mayfield Bucs Storylines In 2026

The countdown to the Bucs’ 2026 season is on. Right now, we’re:

90 days away from Bucs regular season kickoff
60 days away from Bucs preseason kickoff
Under 50 days away from Bucs training camp

In the leadup to training camp, Pewter Report’s Bailey Adams will be diving into storylines for 26 key figures who will be crucial to the Bucs’ success in 2026.

Today, the series starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield.

How Will Baker Mayfield’s Contract Situation Play Out?

As of right now, 2026 will be a contract year for Baker Mayfield. Just a couple of weeks ago, he said at his camp that the Bucs “are not anywhere close” to what he and his side are thinking in terms of numbers for a possible contract extension and that if a deal isn’t reached before training camp, any further contract talks will be tabled and picked back up after the season.

Both general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles have maintained that they and everyone within the team’s leadership want to make sure Mayfield is around for a long time to come. Bowles said this week that Mayfield is a true professional and that he knows the contract situation won’t affect him or his preparation for the upcoming season.

But how will this all play out? While things could change, it appears unlikely that the Bucs and Mayfield will reach an agreement on an extension within the next six weeks or so, which would result in the 31-year-old playing out the final year of the 3-year, $100 million contract he signed after the 2023 season. That ultimately puts the pressure on Mayfield to prove that he’s worth what he’s asking for, which right now is likely something between $55 million and $60 million per year, whereas the team may be closer to $45 million right now.

There are so many directions this situation could go depending on the type of year Mayfield has. If he puts up a repeat of last season, which saw him complete 63.2% of his passes for 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns – all lows for his Bucs career – perhaps the team would have a stronger argument for his value being closer to what it has in mind. But if he even comes close to replicating that 2024 season in which he completed 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns? Mayfield would have more leverage in that case.

Then, of course, there’s the franchise tag. That’s a legitimate option for Tampa Bay given that it would cost right around $50 million to keep him in town for 2027. Not to mention, the Bucs could always use the tag to ensure they have Mayfield on the books for another year and continue to negotiate before the season actually rolls around. Licht recently said the tag is the “furthest” from their minds right now, but it’s there if the team needs it.

As much as Baker Mayfield will look to put the contract talks to the side as he plays out the 2026 season, there’s no doubt that this will continue to be a looming storyline – even if only in the background – as his fourth campaign in Tampa unfolds.

Can Baker Mayfield Return To His 2024 Form?

What would help Mayfield’s case when it comes time to negotiate a new deal – assuming it’s after the 2026 season – is a season like the one he had in 2024. Ever since the Bucs hired Zac Robinson to be their new offensive coordinator back in January, a lot of the talk has been about how this year’s offense will look more like the one Liam Coen ran in 2024 than the one Josh Grizzard directed in 2025.

Robinson and Coen both come from the Sean McVay coaching tree out in Los Angeles, plus the two guys are best friends. They think a lot alike and have similar backgrounds within McVay’s system, so it stands to reason that the 2026 Bucs offense will be similar to the 2024 version. Grizzard came from a different offensive background and incorporated more of a vertical attack last year, and now it sounds like there this year will be a return to more of what worked when Coen was leading the way two seasons ago.

Back in 2024, Mayfield was at his absolute best. Not only was it his best year as a Buc, but it was a career year for the former No. 1 overall pick. With a 71.4% completion percentage, 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, he set career highs on his way to his second Pro Bowl nod. And he put up those numbers despite a midseason lull for the team during a stretch when the offense was without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan. Mayfield kept the offense afloat by turning to tight end Cade Otton and while the wins weren’t there during that stretch, it was hardly on the quarterback or the offense.

It was clear throughout that year that Mayfield was operating very comfortably within Coen’s offense. He had a preexisting relationship with Coen thanks to the brief stint he had with the Rams late in the 2022 season, and that made for a great foundation to work from once Tampa Bay brought Coen in to replace Dave Canales. Now, the Bucs are hoping for similar results with Robinson, who Mayfield also spent time with during that late-2022 period in Los Angeles. With their prior experience working together, it’s fair to wonder if 2026 could turn into another big-time year for the Bucs’ franchise quarterback.

The big difference this year will be the absence of Evans, who signed with the 49ers this offseason. The future Hall of Famer posted 1,004 yards and 11 touchdowns in that 2024 season, helping Mayfield set those high marks. Now, in 2026, where does that type of production come from? You don’t simply replace a guy like Evans, but this year’s offense does include the likes of Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst, plus there’s a more seasoned McMillan as well as a healthier Godwin. The depth is unquestionably better this year than it was two seasons ago, so might that help Mayfield replicate what he did back then?

Will Baker Mayfield Stay Healthy In 2026?

Just as a return to his 2024 production would help his contract situation next offseason, what would be a big help for Mayfield in terms of getting back to that level of success is a year in which he can stay relatively healthy. Because of his playing style and fearless demeanor, No. 6 will take some hits from time to time. But to return to the height of his powers this year and therefore help the Bucs maximize their potential, Mayfield needs to stay healthier than he did in 2025.

Mayfield battled through injury after injury last year. First, it was a foot/toe injury, then came a right biceps injury. From there, he had a knee issue, then an oblique injury and then briefly an illness before a multi-week left shoulder injury. He then played through right shoulder and knee injuries in Week 18. Overall, he was on the Bucs’ injury report in 10 out of 18 weeks.

Tampa Bay needs Baker Mayfield at 100% or as close to it as possible in order to recapture the success it had prior to 2025, which was the end of the team’s four-year reign atop the NFC South and five-year playoff streak. The good news is that there may be a couple of reasons to believe that he’ll stand a better chance of avoiding the constant rash of injuries he suffered through a year ago.

On the one hand, the number of injuries the Bucs had to battle through on the offensive line was simply unheard of. They started the season without Tristan Wirfs, and by the time he returned, Cody Mauch was out for the season and Luke Goedeke was out for a prolonged period of time. Even after Goedeke eventually returned, Ben Bredeson went down and Wirfs later missed more time with another injury. There were even injuries to depth linemen like Luke Haggard, who was one of the many tasked with stepping into one of the starting guard roles due to injury and the reshuffling of the line. You’d have to think the Bucs have better luck up front this year. Surely?

Beyond that, the quicker, more rhythmic throws in Zac Robinson’s offense will certainly help Mayfield get the ball out quicker. In 2025, more downfield throws naturally meant more time spent hanging tough in the pocket, and that may have put the quarterback in harm’s way at times, especially given the offensive line injuries. It’ll also be up to Mayfield to be smart about when he takes those hits on his scrambles because while you want to let him be him, he also has to know when to live to play another down.