Four weeks after the United States and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran’s theocracy, the war has reached a turning point.
Over the past few days, President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken optimistically about the chances of reaching an agreement.
Many of the 15 points in the peace proposal Trump sent to the Iranians — dismantling their nuclear program, ending support for regional terrorist proxies, and keeping open the vital Strait of Hormuz trade route — would be anathema to the regime.
In fact, Tehran has already responded to Trump’s overtures with contempt.
However, on one crucial point, the regime is likely to conclude that it has room to maneuver.
Trump’s plan would reportedly restrict Iran’s use of missiles for “self-defense” purposes.
The regime will undoubtedly interpret the phrase “self-defense” as a license to continue producing its deadly products Hurtful Missiles.
Before Operation Epic Fury, Iran controlled the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East.
It used these projectiles lethally in 2024 and 2025 in its attacks on Israel.
This month, it launched more than 2,000 missiles at the Gulf states.
It also fired more than 400 missiles at Israel – which, despite achieving a 92% interception rate, received a taste of the devastation these weapons can wreak when a ballistic missile struck the southern town of Arad, wounding 88 people.
Just last week, Tehran directed two long-range missiles towards the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which serves as a forward base for British and American military operations.
The island is located about 2,500 miles from the Iranian coast.
European capitals such as Paris, Rome and Berlin fall within a similar range.
If Iranian missiles can reach Diego Garcia, they can easily reach the Champs-Elysées.
On the other hand, CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently told the Senate Intelligence Committee that “if the Iranian regime is left unimpeded, it will eventually have the ability to launch missiles into the continental United States.”
Any truce that left Iran’s missile program intact would leave Iran’s Arab neighbors vulnerable to Tehran’s missiles, put more pressure on Israeli air defenses — and risk the American homeland itself.
If Tehran succeeds in maintaining control over its stockpile of enriched uranium, or succeeds in developing new underground enrichment facilities, the regime – now more entrenched than ever in the brutal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – will redouble its efforts to equip its missiles, even supposedly “defensive” ones, with nuclear warheads.
Highly intrusive inspections will be needed to ensure that the regime abandons its nuclear programme.
When it comes to Iran’s missile program, equally strict monitoring will be needed – along with diplomatic and military measures to stifle further missile development.
This means that all missiles and launch systems must be confined and destroyed.
This means that US and European sanctions on missile entities – especially IRGC-linked airlines, procurement networks and front companies – will need to be expanded rather than bartered in negotiations.
The missile arsenals of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite militias, which are effectively an extension of Iran’s missile force, must be subject to the same stringent measures.
The IRGC remains determined to make good on its March 5 threat that “Khorramshahr’s moments are on the horizon” — a reference to the Khorramshahr-4 missile, which can travel up to 1,900 miles carrying a massive 4,400-pound payload.
If the truce with Tehran comes to fruition, it would be naive to assume that the devastated regime will focus on rebuilding civilian infrastructure at the expense of its missile program.
To hold such hope is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the IRGC.
The attack on Arad signals to its leaders that breaking Israel’s air defenses and subduing the Gulf states with a barrage of missiles is an achievable goal.
If Trump wants this war to be the last waged against the Revolutionary Guard-dominated regime, there can be no talk of allowing missiles in the name of “self-defense.”
Iran has a strong incentive to hunker down until Trump leaves the White House less than three years from now.
Not even the most peaceful future administration in Washington, guided by remorse for the current war, will be able to ignore the consequences of Iran weaponizing its enriched uranium and reviving its missile production capabilities.
But by then, it will be too late: Iran will have a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking American soil.
This is why Trump needs to continue military operations until Iran’s missile infrastructure is completely destroyed.
Mark Dubowitz is CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and host of the show “Iran’s collapse” Podcast. Ben Cohen is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.