With less than two weeks before Election Day, California voters appear poised to pass the state’s redistricting measure, Proposition 50, to counter Republican redistricting efforts in Texas to gain more seats in Congress.
A new Emerson College poll found that 57% of likely California voters support Proposition 50, which allows temporary changes to the state’s congressional maps, while 37% oppose it. Six percent are undecided.
“Some demographic groups that were hesitant to support the measure last month came out to support Proposition 50, such as black voters, whose support increased from 45% to 71%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
California’s proposed U.S. House districts — drawn up by Democrats behind closed doors — are designed to add five Democratic House seats to offset Trump’s moves in Texas to gain five Republican districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. That would boost the Democratic margin to 48 of California’s 52 congressional seats, up from the 2026 midterm elections. 43 which the party now occupies.
Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana are also taking steps that could add GOP seats in the House as well.
Republicans currently hold a 219-213 majority in the US House of Representatives, with three vacant seats.
Republican rise in California governor’s race
The poll found that Democrat Katie Porter, who was criticized after two videos surfaced showing her losing her temper, now finds herself in a statistical tie with Republican Steve Hilton for the lead in the 2026 California governor’s race.
Hilton, a British-born conservative commentator, gained six points from the mid-September poll and is now on 16%, while Porter’s support remains largely unchanged, falling by just one point from 16% to 15%. Riverside County Mayor Chad Bianco, a Republican, received 11%. Democrats Antonio Villaraigosa and Javier Becerra are tied at five percent.
The Emerson College poll, conducted Oct. 20-21 of 900 likely voters, had a margin of error of 3.2%.
Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed were undecided, and many political heavyweights, including Developer Rick Caruso and US Senator Alex PadillaThey are reportedly still considering entering the governor’s race.
The poll showed that Porter, a Harvard and Yale graduate who represented Orange County in Congress, faces an uphill battle to improve her favorability rating among voters.
Porter is viewed favorably by 26% of respondents, while 35% have a negative opinion. Steve Hilton has a 21% positive rating and a 12% negative rating. Chad Bianco is viewed favorably by 19%, while 14% express a negative view of the sheriff. Senator Alex Padilla received a 40% positive rating, compared to 28% negative rating.
The survey results will be discussed in depth this weekendInside California Politics,broadcastNextstar TV stationsIn California at the following times:
KTLA: Sunday, June 15 at 5:30 a.m
Kron: Saturday, June 14 at 6:30 p.m
KSEE: Saturday, June 14 at 6:30 pm and Sunday, June 15 at 8:30 am
KSWB: Sunday, June 15 at 5:30 a.m. and 11:00 p.m
Kigit: Sunday, June 15 at 8:30 am
KTXL: Saturday, June 14 at 11:00 PM and Sunday, June 15 at 7:30 AM
The Associated Press contributed to this report.