The final lineup for the women’s singles is all set at the 2026 Australian Open, as top seed Aryna Sabalenka will be ready to face the fifth-seeded Elena Rybakina under the bright lights of the Rod Laver Arena on Jan. 31. This will be a repeat of the 2023 final, which was won by the Belarusian, who was in her first Major final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Match Details
Date: Jan. 31, 2026
Tournament: Australian Open 2026
Round: Final
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Category: Grand Slam
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, RDS, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Head-to-Head
After 14 meetings, it is Sabalenka who has an 8-6 lead in the head-to-head against Elena Rybakina. The last time they met was in the summit clash of the 2025 WTA Finals in Riyadh, which Rybakina won 6-3, 7-6(0).
Sabalenka began her campaign at the Australian Open with straight-set wins over Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Bai Zhuoxan, and Anastasia Potapova. The first seeded opponent for Sabalenka came in the fourth round in the form of the 17th-seeded Victoria Mboko, with the Belarusian winning 6-1, 7-6(1). She went on with her momentum, winning 6-3, 6-0 against the 18th-seeded Iva Jovic in the quarterfinals, after which she registered another dominant 6-2, 6-3 against 12th-seeded Elina Svitolina.
Rybakina began her campaign with straight set wins over Kaja Juvan, Varvara Gracheva, and Tereza Valentová in the first three rounds. She faced the 21st-seeded Elise Mertens in the fourth round, winning 6-1, 6-3 against the Belgian, and then beat the second seed, Iga Świątek, 7-5, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. In the semifinal, she faced sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula, winning 6-3, 7-6(7).
Sabalenka vs Rybakina Prediction
Sabalenka won 69 percent of her service points and 49% of the return points in her semifinal match against Svitolina. The world No. 1 was broken once in the match, while she broke the Ukrainian’s serve four times. The Belarusian hit 29 winners and made 15 unforced errors, which shows the top seed’s dominance. Even when Svitolina got an early break in the second set, Sabalenka immediately broke back and snuffed out any form of comeback from her opponent.
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On the other hand, Rybakina won 62% of her service points and 47% of her return points against Pegula in her semifinal match. She hit 31 winners but also made 29 unforced errors, especially during the latter stages of the second set, when the American staged a late comeback, saving three match points. The match seemed to be slipping away from the grasp of Rybakina, as Pegula had set points in the tiebreak. However, the fifth seed kept her calm and closed out the match in the tiebreak.
The PFSN Exclusive Simulator has made Sabalenka the favorite to win the upcoming match, assigning a 63% win probability to the Belarusian. Rybakina has been one of the few players on the Tour to counter Sabalenka’s power with her own. The Kazah player has been serving exceptionally well at the Australian Open, and whether Sabalenka can make inroads in her serve will be a big deciding factor.
The two players are evenly matched in power and ball striking, but Sabalenka holds the advantage in her movement. The Belarusian will be playing her fourth consecutive final at Melbourne Park, and will have the edge to go on and win a fifth Major title, third in Australia.
Pick – Sabalenka to win in three sets