Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at CHI)

We will see what this wrist injury means for Aaron Rodgers, but it won’t matter for us.

The future Hall of Famer hasn’t thrown multiple TD passes in November and hasn’t reached 250 passing yards a single time this year. This offense isn’t structured for him to attempt high-risk, high-reward passes, and without any rushing in his profile, he’s left without a clean path to top-10 numbers.

With just two finishes better than QB15 this season, I’m not wasting brain power on considering him in any capacity this weekend, should he gut through this injury.

Baker Mayfield | TB (at LAR)

Baker Mayfield made a few of the gritty plays that we’ve come to assume from the former first overall pick (the highlight being a fourth-down scramble on a zone read for a touchdown in the second quarter), but the bad ways outweighed the good for fantasy managers.

Against the Bills, Mayfield completed just 57.1% of his passes, his second-worst showing since September, and failed to throw multiple TDs for the third time in four games. The struggles, in my opinion, are more the result of a crumbling surrounding cast, but it doesn’t matter why it’s happening, just that it projects to continue.

Over his past four games, Mayfield has misfired on 16 of his 20 deep passes. There simply isn’t much per-pass production to chase in this offense as it currently sits, and if Bucky Irving returns, the focus on this three-man backfield might be the best way for Tampa Bay to compete at a high level.

It’s a difficult reality after the start to this season, but Mayfield is no longer a lineup lock in a neutral setting … and this is even worse than that.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs CAR)

Brock Purdy laced’em up for the first time since Week 4 (toe) last week in Arizona and didn’t miss a beat.

He’s been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league since assuming the starting gig, and that was on full display Sunday with 19 of his 26 pass attempts being thrown to or short of the sticks.

As Rodgers has proven this season, short targets alone don’t make you a dangerous option. What it does for Purdy is that his understanding of the Kyle Shanahan system allows him to feed his top playmakers with opportunities in space, something that is ultimately the goal of every offense.

In the Week 11 win, he fed six targets to each of his three priority targets (Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings), elevating his fantasy floor in the process. What makes him different from most is his composure: five of seven with a touchdown when throwing on third down last week, success that not only carries counting numbers with it, but extends drives.

Purdy has thrown 174 passes over his last five starts, and 12 of them (2+ in every game) have ended in touchdowns. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he refused to leave the pocket (one rush for -7 yards), but I think we see that bounce back with time.

He’s not an elite runner by any means, but his 21.5 rushing yards per game a season ago helped him sustain QB1 value, and if he can get back to that come December, then we are in business.

For Monday night, I have Purdy ranked as my QB8, making him a viable option across all formats and hopefully bringing home your matchup.

Bryce Young | CAR (at SF)

Another tight win for the Panthers, and this one saw Bryce Young break the slate. He looked good from the jump (six different players caught a pass on the first drive), and he never slowed down.

In the overtime victory, he threw for 448 yards and three scores, numbers that he didn’t threaten over his previous three games combined (364 passing yards and one touchdown).

With this team in the playoff mix and facing a beat-up 49ers defense, should Young be on your radar in a week with four teams on a bye?

I’ll pass.

Last week, 82.2% of his passes came when not under duress, a rate that I think they are going to have an awfully hard time replicating if I’m right in assuming that historical outlier is, well, an outlier. Then this house of cards comes crashing down in a hurry.

Young’s fantasy production per pressured attempt is identical to where it stood last season, and that’s a problem. There is raw talent on this roster, and that’s good for the long-term outlook, but there isn’t enough polish to make this offense worthy of our attention.

Week 11 was good to see, but not predictive in any way.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs BUF)

This concussion resulted in C.J. Stroud being ruled out for Week 11, a second consecutive missed game, on Thursday without having taken part in a single practice since getting banged up against the Broncos.

Maybe the symptoms clear up in time for him to get the start for Houston next week, but it shouldn’t matter for your fantasy team. Stroud has one top-10 finish this season and, for his career, averages 17.6% fewer PPG as an underdog than otherwise.

He hasn’t cleared 15 fantasy points in a losing effort since Week 16 of last season, and, should he get the nod this week, the odds aren’t great of him snapping that string of struggles. The Bills project to be playing with a lead, and thus allowing them to unleash an aggressive plan against this shaky offensive line.

Stroud Splits Vs Pressure

• 2024: 13.1 yards per completion, 1.2% INT%, 71.0 passer rating
• 2025: 10.3 yards per completion, 4.3% INT%, 60.4 passer rating

If we get Stroud back next week, you’re not playing him, but you are watching. The Texans host the Cardinals and Raiders in Weeks 15-16, matchups that could allow him to produce fringe QB1 numbers during the most important time of your fantasy season. For reference, the Week 15-16 schedule for some quarterbacks in that general range:

Caleb Williams | CHI (vs PIT)

Caleb Williams threw multiple touchdown passes in two of his first three games this season, but he’s just one of seven since, and that one came against the Bengals, so I’m not even sure it counts in full.

I don’t want to say he was skittish on Sunday, but he was just 4 of 11 when not pressured, his first sub-50% completion rate game in such situations this season. This is concerning at face value, but when you consider that this offensive line grades out as elite, it’s even more of a worry.

Given this team’s strengths, what motivates them to blitz?

That’s a double-edged sword. No blitzing means fewer single coverage opportunities down the field, and it also means more good running spots, something that I think this offense wants to lean into.

The Steelers kept the high-flying Bengals in check last week, and while they’ve lacked consistency on that side of the ball, Williams offers at least as much risk as reward.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs SEA)

The Titans were about as competitive as you could ask for on Sunday, and Cam Ward dropped back to pass 43 times, but he failed to reach 200 yards through the air for the fifth time this season, and he still doesn’t have a multi-pass TD effort on his professional resume.

With Calvin Ridley lost for the season, it’s tough to make the case for Ward in even a two-QB league. The rookie hasn’t reached 14 fantasy points in a game, and this doesn’t project to be the matchup that ends those struggles.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs PHI)

Dak Prescott was all we could have asked for on Monday night against a vulnerable Raiders secondary, with 78.4% of his passing yards being picked up by his two star receivers.

He tied Matthew Stafford for the league lead in games with 3+ TD passes, and all five of Prescott’s have come in his past seven games. I’d be surprised if he adds to that total this week against an Eagles defense that has made Jordan Love and Jared Goff look like replacement-level QBs, not franchise options.

Prescott and Baker Mayfield (at Rams) are the two quarterbacks who I found most difficult to rank this week. Both are sitting just outside of my top 10 at the position for a lack of upside in these matchups, but a nod to the floor they are capable of providing.

Daniel Jones | IND (at KC)

The Daniel Jones house of cards seems to be wobbling a bit. Maybe the bye week is enough for him to right the ship, but given his career track record and the ability of this offense to succeed without asking him to do much, he’s off my radar this week in standard leagues.

• Weeks 1-8: 0.53 points per pass (5.3% TD rate)
• Weeks 9-10: 0,31 points per pass (2.6% TD rate)

This team wants to limit his volume, and if the efficiency is fleeting, this profile gets thin in a hurry. We know that Jones can pile up the fantasy points on the ground, but his value in that regard has been more sporadic than you might realize.

• Four games with 20+ rushing yards
• Five games under five rushing yards

He’s scored five rushing touchdowns, and that’s still driving some of his per-game rankings for this season, but that’s a dangerous thing to count on for any QB, never mind one who is handing the ball off to an MVP candidate.

With four teams (Bo Nix and Justin Herbert among the usable QBs) on a bye this week, the streaming options are thin. Still, I’d take a look at your wire (hit me up on X at KyleSoppePFN with your lineup decisions, I think you’d be surprised at how many QBs grade better this week and Mr. Dimes).

Dillon Gabriel | CLE (at LV)

Dillon Gabriel didn’t return from a head injury for the second half against the Ravens on Sunday, paving the way for the Shedeur Sanders experience.

You’re not counting on the Browns, and this doesn’t change that. If you’re in one of those leagues where every quarterback is rostered, I think you’re clear to move on from Gabriel. Cleveland now has an excuse to look at Sanders, and that will give them (provided health) a near equal sample size to compare the two rookies.

If early returns mean anything, I’m not the least bit sold that the franchise quarterback is on this roster.

Drake Maye | NE (at CIN)

TreVeyon Henderson cashed in two touchdowns from seven yards out, and that eliminated some of the fantasy upside for Drake Maye on Thursday night against the Jets, but good luck getting any sympathy.

Maye has averaged north of eight yards per pass in eight straight games and is showing tremendous signs of development. In three of his past four games, he’s completed over 76% of his passes when taking 2.5+ seconds to throw (10 of his 13 TD passes over that stretch have come on those attempts), something that points to a high level of effectiveness when allowing the play to develop.

That’s huge.

So many young players want to bail after their first read, especially when gifted the physical tools that Maye possesses. So no, I’m not worried that Maye has seen his rushing yardage decline in four straight games or that he hasn’t scored a touchdown on the ground since September.

Instead, I’m encouraged — encouraged that he was five-of-six with a touchdown against the Jets last week when out of the pocket. He’s showing signs of maturity that I didn’t think were on the 2025 radar. He’s now dangerous on the move as a passer and a runner, putting defenses into a true can’t-win situation.

Patriots QB Drake Maye’s pocket presence and accuracy on the move. Poetry in motion. pic.twitter.com/V121zWDY9I

— PatriotsPlaybook (@Pats_Playbook) November 19, 2025

This matchup makes just about any QB interesting, and that makes it impossible to rank Maye too high this week. The bye looms (Week 14), and that’s a pain, but coming out of that for the fantasy playoffs, he’ll be tasked with keeping up with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

This is going to be a fun ride to the finish line!

Geno Smith | LV (vs CLE)

The NFL is very much a league of haves and have-nots.

Every week, we see some quarterback play at a borderline all-time level, but the other side of that coin is some awfully dismal play, and that’s the neighborhood in which Geno Smith has lived all season.

Dillon Gabriel hasn’t shown much in the way of potential, J.J. McCarthy is struggling despite a strong system around him, and Cam Ward can’t seem to put 60 good minutes together.

All of those names are on the board, and it’s Smith who owns the league’s lowest passer rating on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield this season.

• 81 attempts
• 36 completions
• 3 touchdowns
• 7 interceptions

There’s a real chance that the D/STs post the highest fantasy point totals in this game. Smith isn’t worth a look in any format. We can only hope that he throws enough accurate passes in the direction of Brock Bowers.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at GB)

J.J. McCarthy is not an NFL-level starting quarterback right now.

Fantasy managers and the Minnesota Vikings alike would love for him to be, but he’s not. At the moment, he can’t keep his top target fed (22-of-43 with five interceptions when throwing in the direction of Justin Jefferson) and isn’t a threat to stretch the field at all.

When Throwing Past The Sticks

• Weeks 1-2: 61.1% completion percentage, 101.6 passer rating
• Weeks 9-11: 31.3% completion percentage, 22.1 passer rating

I understand that the Green Bay defense hasn’t been as consistent as projected, but this is still a talented group, and we haven’t been given any reason to believe that McCarthy can string together 30 consecutive good minutes, forget about 60.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (vs JAX)

We are looking at at least two more missed games for Kyler Murray (foot). GM Monti Ossenfort said shortly after he was placed on IR that he believed Murray would return this season. At the same time, Adam Schefter reported that the team and Murray will have “extensive discussions” about his future with the team.

Who knows?

What I do know is that Jacoby Brissett is cutting it loose right now (NFL record 47 completions last weekend) and is facing a defense that has allowed 20+ fantasy points to a QB in each of their past five games.

The QB production is one thing, but their two games coming out of the bye have been played against the Raiders and Texans.

Multiple touchdowns feel safe, something that Brissett has done in all five of his starts, and with 36+ pass attempts in four of those games, I’m expecting another top 10 performance.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at DAL)

People will study the 2025 Jalen Hurts season for years to come.

He’s trying to solve the A.J. Brown situation by throwing deep, and it’s just not working. In Weeks 1-9, 19.5% of his throws traveled 15+ yards in the air, a rate that is north of 30% over the past two weeks. In theory, if that elevates his ceiling, but with him misfiring on 15 of those 20 attempts over the past two, it’s really just lowering his floor.

The 31 rushing yards last week were his most since September, and that’s good to see, but without the passing numbers (four games with under 155 passing yards and five games with one or fewer TD passes), the fantasy production is underwhelming.

Hurts is at risk of falling in my rankings, but he’s still my QB5 in this strong matchup.

I understand that the Cowboys’ defense looked better last week with some of their guys back, but it was also on an extended week to prepare for Geno Smith.

This is a hinge week. If the Dallas defense shows up, how I view them as a matchup going forward changes in a big way, and the same is true for Hurts.

Jameis Winston | NYG (at DET)

It was fun to talk about, but Jameis Winston was unable to juice any value out of this banged-up Giants offense, and we probably shouldn’t be surprised.

What has made Jaxson Dart a fantasy asset in this setting has nothing to do with the players around him and everything to do with his willingness to risk it all to move the chains.

On Sunday, 27 of Winston’s 29 pass attempts came in the pocket, and I suspect that what we saw from the Packers last week will be consistent with what we see from opponents when facing Dart moving forward: “make anyone besides the QB beat us”.

I’m going to be than the industry on Dart should he play, and that general pessimism will spill over to the backup should the franchise QB be sidelined for another week.

Jared Goff | DET (vs NYG)

We chalk it up and move on.

Jared Goff was a mess on Sunday night, an outdoor night game against the defending Super Bowl champions. He completed just 7-of-25 passes in the second half and was unable to string together positive plays to jump-start the drives.

A home game against a Giants defense that has allowed the opposing QB to score above his season average in seven straight is a slightly different matchup, and I have no issue with locking Goff in as a top 10 performer at the position this week.

That said, we need to call a spade a spade. We saw Sam Darnold excel for the majority of last season, only to be undone in high-pressure situations. I’m not suggesting that Goff’s fate is similar, but he was 0-of-10 when sped up last week and hasn’t thrown a single score on his 113 pressured dropbacks this season.

I’m monitoring.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at DET)

The Giants are working with an interim coach and a franchise QB who has been tested for a concussion four times already this season.

That’s not exactly a profile I like leaning into with one of the better NFC teams on the schedule, but the results of Jaxson Dart demand that we consider him as a viable option if active and, to be honest, closer to a lineup lock.

The rookie has run for a touchdown or thrown 40+ passes in every start of his young career, and the reckless play that landed him on the sidelines last week is exactly what makes him a difference maker in our game.

It’s a fine needle to thread for a team going nowhere in 2025. If this were a team making a serious run, I don’t think I’d be far from ranking Dart as a Tier 1 fantasy QB: we’d have no reason to think that his style of play was at risk of changing, and with an offense like the Lions on the other side, we’d love the script potential.

But after a Week 11 DNP, we are left with more questions than answers.

I don’t think they can change Dart’s approach to the game overnight. His duality and bold play are what got him to this point, and I can’t imagine this is the first time there have been discussions about how he goes about his business.

That said, this is very much a franchise that needs to take a long-term view. They are already without two skill-position players who figure to impact their future in a major way: the training wheels will come off this offense next year at full strength, but that won’t matter if the bike isn’t in pristine condition beforehand.

I’ve got Dart ranked safely inside of my top 10 this week, with the thought being that he’ll continue to challenge defenses on the ground in a significant way. That’s the fantasy cheat code, but we have also seen some subtle passing growth despite a limited crew of pass catchers by his side:

• Weeks 4-7: 41.2% complete on ball thrown to (or past) the sticks
• Weeks 8-10: 52.8% complete on ball thrown to (or past) the sticks

Joe Burrow | CIN (vs NE)

Joe Burrow (toe) was designated for return on November 10 and has been vocal about Week 13 (Thursday night in Baltimore) being his target return date.

Only time will tell on that front, but he’s getting close, and whether that estimate is spot-on or not, he needs to be rostered in all formats. From that point forward, the Bengals play nothing but elite offenses that can force Cincy into an aggressive script or vulnerable defenses that can be picked apart.

Asking Burrow to come back and immediately put up MVP numbers is a bit optimistic. Still, we are looking at one of the best pocket passers in the league with two elite receivers and a versatile running back at his disposal.

Joe Flacco managers need to start planning.

Joe Flacco | CIN (vs NE)

A month between meetings and, as it turns out, maybe the Flacco film really is as simple as it appears.

The Steelers have been an up-and-down defense this season, but they clearly learned from their first meeting with Flacco and made the adjustments.

Short Passing Profile (under 10 air yards)

• Week 7 vs PIT: 25-of-33 for 216 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
• Sunday at PIT: 19-of-30 for 125 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

If the clock didn’t strike midnight on Flacco last week, it’s at serious risk of doing it this weekend against a Patriots team on extended rest.

New England created pressure on one-third of opponent dropbacks when not blitzing in the first seven weeks of the season, a nice rate, but one that has spiked to 39.8% since. Flacco can deal with pressure, but for him to load his top two receivers down with targets, he needs favorable coverage spots, and with extra men circling in the secondary, that’s less likely to happen.

Joe Burrow is targeting next week to return, and I think that’s the next time you start a quarterback with confidence from this team.

Jordan Love | GB (vs MIN)

There was a shoulder injury in the first quarter, but Jordan Love shook it off and looked fine after returning to the game.

The bomb to Christian Watson was his first deep touchdown pass since September, and with the big play receiver certainly looking healthy, there’s a chance that this offense has an added dimension moving forward.

Consider me interested.

Love’s aDOT is over eight yards again, something that has been the case in all three of his seasons at the helm, and that’s where Watson wins. Savion Williams also made a big play in this one (32-yard jump ball reception in the fourth quarter), so while the counting numbers weren’t there (under 180 passing yards for the third time in five games), there are reasons for optimism.

We’ve seen select QBs victimize this aggressive Vikings defense (Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff combined to complete 15-of-22 passes thrown 10+ yards down with five scores), and I think we see some of that vulnerability shown this week, especially if Green Bay is working with a limited/inactive Josh Jacobs.

Love is a top-10 QB for me this week and one that I think comes with a higher floor than you might assume.

Josh Allen | BUF (at HOU)

Twice in the 2000s has a player thrown for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a game, and they also ran for three scores.

• Josh Allen (Sunday vs. Buccaneers)
• Josh Allen (Week 14, 2024 at Rams)

We got the full experience over the weekend, and while I don’t think that’s the start of a trend (part of him developing has been limiting the chaotic games like this), it certainly was fun to live through again.

An ill-advised chest pass from his own end zone that was intercepted?

Check.

Season high average depth of throw?

Mhmm.

Three carries inside the 10-yard line (previous eight games: six)?

Why not.

All of this glorious production came in a game where Keon Coleman outproduced WR1 Khalil Shakir despite being a healthy scratch after showing up late to a meeting on Friday.

Stopping Allen for four quarters feels like a near-impossible task, and if you blink, he’s going to punish you in a big way. The Texans’ defense is great, but this is 2025: great offense is going to grade out better than great defense most of the time, and that’s how I see this playing out.

Justin Fields | NYJ (at BAL)

This is a college offense being played against professionals.

Justin Fields is a rare athlete, and that is going to allow him to backdoor his way into fantasy value at times (Thursday night at New England: 116 pass yards, TD, 67 rush yards, TD), but it’s far from “safe”.

In his last four games not played against the Bengals, Fields has completed 3-of-15 passes thrown 10+ yards downfield, with the lone chunk play being the touchdown last week, where the defender tripped over his own feet mid-route.

Mobile QBs are great, but if there’s next to no threat vertically, the field gets small in a hurry. For me, Fields is nothing more than a DFS play when on the field. You can embrace the variance in a tournament with a top-heavy payout structure to maximize how impactful your “hit” can be, but the math is never going to work in his favor.

None of that matters right now as the Jets announced on Monday that this is now Tyrod Taylor’s offense. This sort of feels like shuffling chairs on the Titanic, but we’ve seen backup QBs breathe life into offenses all season long, and there’s only one direction for this offense to go.

Kyler Murray | ARI (vs JAX)

The fact that we needed reports three weeks ago to tell us that the Cardinals’ starting Brissett was “not some kind of benching” of Kyler Murray is a concern.

The foot injury is a worry for a player who, at the peak of his powers, threatens defenses in a multitude of ways. But even pre-injury, we are talking about a quarterback who has yet to post a top-12 finish at the position this season.

Murray is pacing for a career low in both fantasy points per pass and per rush, making him a tough sell until we have a clean bill of health, and even then, I think I’d need to see it on the field before trusting him in lineups.

With the IR tag slapped on him last Wednesday, Murray will miss the remainder of the month, with a Week 14 return his next possible spot to impact our world.

The Cardinals play the Rams and Texans in Weeks 14-15, two matchups that I’d rather not touch, and that means, at best, a Week 16 home game against the Falcons is the next time you’d feel even remotely confident in considering Murray.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs NYJ)

This just isn’t the Lamar Jackson we drafted.

In 2022, 38.3% of his fantasy value came from his legs. That rate dropped to 30.2% in 2023 and to 24.5% in 2024, Year 1 of the Derrick Henry era.

Through 11 weeks this season, he’s sitting at 19%. Now, I understand the value of the forward pass, and Jackson has proven himself to be a strong option in the pocket, but when the defense feels threatened in fewer ways, everything gets a touch more difficult.

Over the past two weeks, Jackson has had one touchdown and just 369 passing yards. There’s no real actionable here, you’re starting him and not thinking twice about it, but I do think our baseline does need to be adjusted until we see him function more as a true dual threat.

Mac Jones | SF (vs CAR)

Mac Jones kept the seat warm, but this was always going to be Brock Purdy’s offense to lead when healthy, and right now, that’s the case.

We did see the backup post three top-10 finishes, but he finished outside of the top 16 in half of his starts, leaving us with too low a floor to bank on him blindly should he be pushed into the starter’s role at any point for the remainder of the season.

• Monday vs. Panthers
• Week 13 at Browns
• Week 14 BYE
• Week 15 vs. Titans
• Week 16 at Colts
• Week 17 vs. Bears
• Week 18 vs. Seahawks

There are a few matchups in there that could be enticing should the opportunity present itself, but we can cross that bridge when we get there. There’s no reason to roster him at this moment in time. The profile (bottom-10 in aDOT without access to much work on the ground) isn’t something I’m moving mountains for.

Mason Rudolph | PIT (at CHI)

Aaron Rodgers wasn’t in MVP form, but this system as a whole isn’t exactly built for fantasy production, so expecting Mason Rudolph to unlock options like Jacoby Brissett has done in Arizona or Joe Flacco in Cincinnati simply isn’t wise.

Rudolph has never cleared 20 fantasy points in a start, and he has at least as many interceptions as touchdown tosses in four of his past five starts. This is a cautious offense that now welcomes an even lower-upside QB than they’ve had up to this point.

The matchup with Chicago is obviously a good one, but unless they are required to defend with fewer than 11 players on the field, I’m not looking at Rudolph in any format.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs TB)

Asking the Bucs to go from chasing Josh Allen all over the place to defending the precision-based Matthew Stafford is an interesting dynamic, but not all that new.

In Week 4, Tampa Bay faced Hurts, and they got Sam Darnold the next week: Darnold went 28-of-34 for 341 yards and four scores.

I’m not projecting that stat line for Stafford this week. But with 12 red zone TD passes over his past four games and 59.3% of his targets being funneled to Puka Nacua or Davante Adams, the floor is plenty high enough to justify starting this statue in all formats.

Stafford has multiple touchdown tosses in eight of his last nine games, and I think he makes it nine of 10, potentially in the first half against a defense that is much stronger against the run than the pass.

Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at NO)

Michael Penix saw four of his collegiate seasons end prematurely with various injuries, and with him being placed on injured reserve (knee) on Monday, we could be looking at a similar fate this year.

The lefty has shown flashes of competence at the pro level, but he’s been unable to sustain it. He’s completed just 59.6% of his career passes with 12 scores on 381 attempts. I’m hopeful that the recovery process is a clean one for this 25-year-old, but I’m ruling him out for our purposes for the remainder of this season, meaning this is Kirk Cousins’ ship to steer.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs IND)

It’s been a wild ride for those with Patrick Mahomes rostered this season. Over the last two games, on the heels of three straight three-TD games, he’s totaled one passing touchdown and eight rushing yards.

In the first two months of this season, that was one quarter’s worth of production.

He now has six games this season with one or fewer pass TDs, as this season truly has been a boom/bust one for #15. Mahomes was one of nine throwing deep last week and hasn’t had a long touchdown pass in six straight games.

The Colts have allowed 20+ fantasy points to Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Herbert this year. Their offense puts their defense in a position to face aggressive offenses regularly, and if the Chiefs can bring that plan, Mahomes can post a top 5 performance.

But could this be a grind-it-out Jonathan Taylor game off the bye?

The range of outcomes is wide for Mahomes, and while I’m comfortable in ranking him as my QB6, he’s sitting at the top of a tier that extends all the way down to QB12.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at TEN)

I’d love to fight the “he is who we thought he was” narrative, but when the numbers point in that direction, we have to listen.

Over the past two weeks (games against the Cardinals and Rams), Darnold is 5-of-13 when pressured, with zero touchdowns and four of those eight incompletions actually being completed to the other team.

That flaw is obviously a problem. That said, this is a Week 12 article, and the Titans are not only a well below-average pressure defense; they are dead last at creating heat when bringing a blitz.

So yes, I’m worried this season is going to end the same way last season did for Darnold, but in our weekly game, I’m starting him with confidence and not at all hesitating to go this way in DFS.

In terms of fantasy upside, we need a WR2 (preferably Rashid Shaheed) to step up: 11 targets to AJ Barner can be efficient, but it’s not going to fuel much in the way of upside.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (at LV)

Shedeur Sanders was thrown into a near-impossible situation on Sunday and struggled at the level that you’d expect.

Against the Ravens, he was just four-of-16 after taking over for a concussed Dillon Gabriel in the second half. The inefficiency was predictable, but I would have thought that numbers like that would be the result of an overly aggressive rookie trying to make a splash.

Nope.

Sanders misfired on six of the passes thrown less than five yards downfield (the NFL average for completion percentage, not incompletion percentage, usually hovers around 75%) as the game was clearly coming at him faster than he was ready for.

How much of that was the result of getting dropped into a tough spot and how much is a talent thing isn’t clear after this tiny sample, but it was obvious that he has a long way to go.

I like Sanders as the Cleveland starter for the remainder of the season, and a full work week against a Vegas defense that played on Monday night should give us a better feel for exactly where we are with the 144th pick.

This passing game isn’t one that successful fantasy teams are invested in.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at ARI)

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t cleared 220 passing yards in a game this month, hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in over a month, and has one touchdown pass on a ball thrown 20+ yards (36 attempts).

To say that he’s come up short of the “Chosen One” pedigree would be an understatement. The Cardinals are a good enough matchup to put anyone on the DFS radar (40+ points allowed in consecutive games), but given how Jacksonville steamrolled the Chargers on Sunday (192 yards and four scores on the ground), what grounds do we have to project a big attempt total for Lawrence?

None.

He’s not an efficient passer and lacks big-play upside (his last 40-yard completion came in Week 5), making low volume a death knell to his fantasy stock. I’d advise against blindly looking this way in DFS under the pretense of a cheap price and a strong matchup: the math still doesn’t work in Lawrence’s favor.

Tyler Shough | NO (vs ATL)

It’s perfectly OK to like what you saw in Week 10’s win over the Panthers from Tyler Shough and not to be at all interested for fantasy purposes.

He funneled 30.8% of his targets in the direction of Chris Olave, and that’s good business practice. From an inside baseball perspective, he completed five of eight passes for 99 yards and a touchdown when pressured (season prior, when pressured: one-of-13 for six yards and an interception).

Any 26-year-old rookie is going to face an uphill battle to develop and prove himself on the desired timeline, but in his third career start, Shough showed enough promise to keep us interested from a future value point of view.

He’s nowhere near the fantasy radar in anything close to a standard-sized league.

Tyrod Taylor | NYJ (at BAL)

Tyrod Taylor is in a nice spot.

No, not for fantasy. God no. This Ravens defense is trending in the right direction, and the Jets have made it clear that losses are more valuable than wins for the remainder of this season.

But what’s the downside? This offense has failed to reach 15 points in three of its past five games, a stretch during which Justin Fields has struggled to post a passing yardage total greater than the kickoff temperature.

Taylor is in a nice spot because there are no expectations, and he can play freely. If you want to bet on that mindset, bet the over in total points for this game, understanding that if things go sideways, he’s putting the Ravens in position to help cash your ticket.

In this era of fantasy football, 17 points from your QB isn’t asking for a ton, and Taylor has hit that threshold, in a loss, just once since the middle of the 2017 season.

I’m happy for New York fans in that they get something different to watch this week and that this franchise at least gave him a long work week in terms of prep, but he’s nowhere near the viable streaming radar, even in the deepest of one-QB leagues.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at GB)

I was wrong about this backfield, and there’s no point in being stubborn: Aaron Jones is the guy that Minnesota trusts and the one they are going to funnel their offense through in terms of this backfield.

He held a 9-1 touch edge over Jordan Mason in the first quarter last week, and I think he’s largely looked spry when available this season.

Like everyone in this offense, there are efficiency issues in the pass game (six catches on 12 targets over the past two weeks, a catch rate that is unacceptable for a running back, given where those targets come on the field). Still, the usage is there, and that’s enough to get him into the RB2 mix this time of year.

The Packers can be stingy on defense, but they are a below-average red-zone defense and have the fifth-lowest opponent aDOT this season, which isn’t surprising if the plan is to get the ball out quickly.

I don’t think Jones breaks the slate in this revenge game, but 15+ touches and some scoring equity are all we need to justify starting him in all formats.

Alvin Kamara | NO (vs ATL)

New Orleans operated from a position of power in their Week 10 win in Carolina, and that allowed Alvin Kamara to get his hands on the ball 25 times (115 yards).

It was good to see the 30-year-old handle that sort of work, and if they can stay competitive this week after the bye, there’s hope he can repeat it. But asking this roster to remain competitive is a lot.

This season, Kamara is nearly twice as likely to be stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage as he is to gain 10+ yards on a carry, and he’s gone four straight games without seeing more than three targets.

There might be some gas left in the tank (15+ yard repetition in three of his past five games, with the 26-yarder against the Panthers being his longest gain of the season). Still, without exceptional versatility or any real scoring equity (one score on 159 touches), the ceiling is underwhelming to say the least.

With four teams on a bye, you might be pressed into starting him, but I’d be looking for other options if at all possible.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs CLE)

I never played football at a high level and have never coached it.

That said, the play-action-centric approach for the Raiders last week was … a choice. We are three months into the season at this point, and the NFL is well aware that this offensive line can’t run block, so why would defenses sell out to stop the run in such a way that play-action opens up anything?

Some things, we will never know.

Ashton Jeanty finished Monday night with more targets than rush attempts, and while the usage in the passing game is nice (and the only reason you can justify starting him this week), the floor remains low because of the rushing limitations.

Week 11 was the second time this season that Jeanty averaged negative yards before contact, dropping his season average to 0.61. I think the talent is ther,e and we see it when he actually has room to operate, but that’s just not often enough.

Even as a great post-contact runner, he’s failed to gain yardage on an absurd 30.2% of his attempts this season, something that probably doesn’t change against the Browns this weekend, the second-best run defense by success rate.

A handful of targets is enough to get Jeanty to 10-12 PPR points most weeks, but there is little hope for a ceiling performance this week and, to be honest, at all moving forward.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at ARI)

We were so close to getting Bhayshul Tuten extended run.

The Jags worked in him on their first drive and actually had twice as many carries as Travis Etienne in the first quarter.

Things were moving in the right direction so much so that he easily set a season high in snap share despite getting injured in the third quarter. Etienne took advantage of the clear role in the second half and finished with a solid game, but I don’t think it was a mistake for this coaching staff to give the rookie a real chance.

Of 33 RBs with 50+ carries in Weeks 5-10, Travis Etienne was 29.6% below expectations. That was the worst of the bunch, and the company he kept wasn’t exactly great

30. Rhamondre Stevenson: -20.1%

31. Alvin Kamara: -25.1%

32. Woody Marks: -27.3%

33. Etienne: -29.6%

The hopes of a late-season role flip seem to be over now, and we are just hoping that Tuten can get back on the field in a meaningful way sooner rather than later. He deserves to be rostered, given the interest this staff has shown in him, but I’m going to need visual proof of health before giving him a real look as a flex option in any format.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at NO)

Bijan Robinson racked up 110 total yards and a touchdown in the first half last week against the Panthers, with the score being the type where if it happened in a video game, you’d chuck the controller across the room.

He was quiet in the second half, but 27 touches is pretty tough to argue with, and we could see a similar workload this weekend with Drake London sidelined.

All signs point to this being a competitive gam, and four straight RBs have cleared their season average in PPR points when facing the Saints. A shift to Kirk Cousins doesn’t impact how I view Atlanta’s RB1 in a major way, and if he’s a real threat to push 30 touches, I’m loading up on DFS shares.

Blake Corum | LAR (vs TB)

Blake Corum’s work is trending up, but this feels like more of a subtraction from Kyren Williams’ note than it does an actionable one around Corum himself.

The backup RB played 32% of the snaps last week, his third-highest of the season, and a second straight week of growth. In deeper leagues, I’m intrigued by his 17 red zone snaps over the past month, but asking him to get a cheap touchdown in an offense that has Williams and Davante Adams, not to mention Puka Nacua and the TE of the week, who always seems to get dangerous looks, is a lot.

There are only a handful of handcuff running backs, and Corum is on that list, but he’s not in the standalone bucket, and I don’t expect him to be.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs IND)

Brashard Smith is an interesting dynasty piece, but with him running nine routes on his 11 snaps last week, he’s basically a short-yardage receiver in an offense that is full of them already.

With just six carries over his past three games, the rookie is someone I think you could get away with dropping today if need be, and is certainly on the outs once we get to see that Isiah Pacheco is healthy.

As this season comes to a close, I find it far more likely that Kansas City will condense its touch distribution than expand it.

Smith is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season, but for 2025, you can move on.

Breece Hall | NYJ (at BAL)

I don’t know how you can feel great about Breece Hall in any negative game script situation, and I’m not sure how you can feel great about the Jets being in anything but negative game script situations moving forward.

Hall was fine as a runner on Thursday night against the best run defense in the league (14 carries for 58 yards), but this offense simply doesn’t threaten the red zone often enough for him to carry much scoring equity.

We know that Hall is a versatile player, but if you’re a great chef without a kitchen to cook in, does it matter?

Justin Fields can’t throw a stone into the ocean right now, and that’s limited Hall to seven receptions over his past five games. He’s an explosive talent that is going to project for 15-ish touches weekly, so you’re playing him, but I’m not excited about it and wouldn’t be tempted in any way to go this way for DFS purposes.

Tyrod Taylor is a marginal upgrade, but my general view of this offense doesn’t change in a major way with the Jets making this change.

Bucky Irving | TB (at LAR)

Bucky Irving hasn’t played since Week 4 with this shoulder injury, and while he was able to practice in a limited capacity last week, he remained sidelined.

This wouldn’t be an ideal spot to return, and I’m skeptical about his return to action, whenever it comes. We know that Rachaad White is more of a pass catcher than a true runner, and with Irving picking up just 3.3 yards per carry this season (71 carries), his path to returning RB1 value isn’t clear if he’s functioning at less than full strength.

• Week 13 vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Saints
• Week 15 vs. Falcons (Thursday Night Football)
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins
• Week 18 vs. Panthers

We saw Irving thrive down the stretch last season (four straight games with 80+ total yards and multiple receptions), and given that schedule, a similar run out this season is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Stay on top of the news. I believe that it’ll take at least one week for him to round into form, but with four teams on a bye (three of which have a weekly fantasy starter leading their backfield), you probably don’t have a legitimate pivot.

If Irving can take the field this week, manage your expectations and consider him more of a low-end RB2 than the top 15 option at the position, which I believe him to be the rest of the way.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs NE)

That’s now four straight games with Chase Brown in which he’s either caught 6+ passes or reached double-figure fantasy points with his rushing numbers alone.

There was probably too much damage done prior to Joe Flacco taking over this offense for Brown to fully make good on his ADP. Still, he’s certainly trending in a great direction, and his uptick in the passing game (over 8.5 PPR points scored via the reception in three straight) is what I like him to keep the good times rolling this week.

Brown led the Bengals in first-half receptions last week, and he has multiple receptions in every game this season. I don’t think you can count on that, but with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and the Patriots yet to allow a running back to pick up 60 yards on the ground, we could see usage that looks something like Week 9 against the Bears (11 carries for 37 yards, eight catches for 75 yards).

When this offense is functional, Brown is a versatile threat who can rip off chunk plays from anywhere. He was held without a red zone touch last week, and if that’s the case again this week, his upside is obviously limited.

I’m not too worried. This isn’t a bulletproof profile, but there are certainly more paths to production than to failure, and that’s all we can really ask for.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs CAR)

It’s a crazy world where we don’t know if Christian McCaffrey will hit 100 receptions or 1,000 receiving yards first this season, but that’s where we stand.

Rushing Profile

• 2023: 84.9% gain rate, 16.2% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 2024: 84% gain rate, 12% of carries gained 10+ yards
• 2025: 79.8% gain rate, 9.8% of carries gained 10+ yards

That would kill a traditional running back, but it’s not even denting the status of CMC. San Francisco is weaponizing their best player at a high level: 6+ targets in every game this season, 5+ catches in 10 of 11, and five touchdown receptions.

There’s nothing non-health-related that can stop McCaffrey, and I’m going to go ahead and assume that’s the case for the remainder of the season.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at SF)

At one point, the Panthers were stubborn in keeping Chuba Hubbard involved, but those days are long gone, and this offense isn’t one worth holding a handcuff to at this point in the fantasy season unless you are absolutely cruising.

The former starter has failed to clear five touches in back-to-back-to-back games and doesn’t have a 10-yard gain in four straight. I still think Hubbard is a professional-level running back. We don’t yet know what Carolina will do at the position next season (he has an out in his contract, but Rico Dowdle will be a UFA), and that’ll be a storyline to watch, but in the scope of 2025, this isn’t a player that needs to be rostered.

If your team is loaded and you have the luxury of simply holding direct handcuffs, I’m not cutting Hubbard for a boom/bust WR7, but most teams are in fight-tooth-and-nail situations, and a pure backup doesn’t aid those rosters.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs PIT)

I believe that you can largely tell what the team views as their strengths by what they show you early.

Week 10 First Quarter Snap Shares

• Swift: 52.6%
• Monangai: 47.4%

Week 11 First Quarter Snap Shares

• Swift: 63.6%
• Monangai: 18.2%

This, to me, looks like a running back coming back from an injury and working toward full strength. Swift has 19+ carries or multiple receptions every time he’s been on the field this season, a role that locks him into my top 20 weekly.

Would I like for this offense to be more consistent? Of course, I would, but with volume like that, the baseline is high enough at this point in the season to feel good about him being locked into your weekly lineup.

The schedule is brutal for the Bears coming home, but there is a trip to San Francisco in Week 17 if you can survive until then. Their success should keep Swift’s 15+ touch role safe for the remainder of the season.

Upcoming Schedule

• Week 13 at Eagles
• Week 14 at Packers
• Week 15 vs. Browns
• Week 16 vs. Packers

David Montgomery | DET (vs NYG)

David Montgomery is on the flex radar this week thanks to the matchup and the implied point total, but his profile is very much trending in the wrong direction.

This season, Monty has failed to clear a dozen carries seven times. That could be offset by a scoring role (one touchdown over his past five games) or versatility (no more than two catches in a game after pulling in four targets in Week 1), but neither is a part of the deal in this secondary role.

I understand if you’re in a tough spot and his 10-ish touches in a plus-matchup are enough to hit your lineup, but I’d caution against assuming that you have this part in your starting lineup locked in moving forward.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs NYJ)

The final stat line for Derrick Henry looked the part (20 touches for 122 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland), but that may have been the most deceiving stat line of the week.

Henry failed to gain yardage on one-third of his targets and ran for -1 yard on his three carries inside the five-yard line.

He did cash in one of those goal-line carries and ripped off a 59-yard gain in the third quarter, however, and that got the counting numbers to where they needed to be. This is both the blessing and the curse of rostering Henry.

“Patrick Ricard changes everything for the Baltimore Ravens..

THERE GOES DERRICK HENRY” ~ @aqshipley #PMSLIVE https://t.co/xnFozpueDY pic.twitter.com/ulyXkffVjS

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 19, 2025

Thanks to the scoreboard, Henry was involved for four quarters, and as long as that happens, I’ll take my chances with him and go to battle. I like how this game projects, and given that Henry gained yardage on at least 80% of his carries in each of the three games prior, that gives him top-5 potential at the position.

This is a loaded main slate for DFS purposes, and that’s going to suppress the ownership around all of the star backs. I expect Henry to be a strong leverage play with many not hesitating to pay up a bit to get access to more versatile profiles, and a low-owned King as a big favorite is what dreams are made of.

Devin Singletary | NYG (at DET)

Devin Singletary has been out-snapped 82-57 by Tyrone Tracy over the past two weeks as this offense adjusts to life without Cam Skattebo, and while snaps are often tied to production, I don’t play in any points-per-snap leagues.

Heck, Tracy has a 38-28 touch edge over Singletary during those two games, but the veteran has handled 13 of the 15 red zone touches.

Yes, 86.7%.

I think we can rule out sheer volume as a means to an end when it comes to obtaining value in an offense like this, so give me the touches with the most projected points attached to them.

With Evan Neal on IR, I’m skeptical about the traditional run game in New York. That said, they experimented with a wildcat snap for Singletary on a fourth down last week, giving me hope that they can get a running back to return flex value weekly.

This matchup works more in Tracy’s favor, given the G-Men’s status as a big underdog.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (vs MIN)

All signs are pointing to Emanuel Wilson getting an extended run in this matchup, and the early returns on him producing with volume have been strong.

In his three games with 10+ touches this season, he’s picked up 217 yards, good for 5.9 yards per touch. That’s good, but this is more of a theoretical question: how does this offense choose to function without its centerpiece?

Either they try to fit a square peg into a round hole and ask Wilson to be Jacobs, or they put this important game in the hands of their franchise QB.

I lean the latter, and given that Wilson has seen just 13.3% of his career touches in the passing game, I’m not overly optimistic that he clears 15 touches against this aggressive Vikings defense that hasn’t allowed a running back to clear 11 PPR points in three straight games.

Wilson is very much worthy of a roster spot, and I’d rather flex him than Jordan Addison or Romeo Doubs if we are picking players in this range in this game. But I’d be careful in assuming too much from a career backup with under 200 career touches on his resume.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs IND)

Isiah Pacheco suffered an MCL sprain in Week 8 and has been unable to return since, showing few signs of being close.

With just two top-30 finishes this season, there’s no real urgency for fantasy managers in this situation. I like Pacheco and his running style as much as anyone, but until the Chiefs commit to him post-injury, I’m assuming this to be an even split with Kareem Hunt at best, with the valuable carries funneling to the veteran.

Asking Pacheco to play this week and again on Thanksgiving feels like a lot. A return next week in Dallas to take advantage of the mini-bye seems more likely, but again, playing Pacheco in his first game back isn’t something I’m looking to do.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule

• Week 15 vs. Chargers
• Week 16 at Titans
• Week 17 vs. Broncos

Not friendly, but that Week 16 spot is appetizing, and the hope is that we have Pacheco sitting atop this depth chart by then.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs NYG)

Week 11 is a prime example of what makes Jahmyr Gibbs a Tier 1 running back.

The Lions had nothing going (nine points, under 25 minutes of possession, and more incompletions than rushing attempts), and Gibbs ended up with nearly 20 PPR points.

The script doesn’t dictate Gibbs’ production; Gibbs adjusts his production to the script. The 14 catches over his past four games are encouraging to see after a three-game stretch that saw him total five receptions.

The ceiling is elite, and we could see it on the fast track at home with a near 30-point implied total. We know that’s in his bag, but I’m more encouraged by the raising of his floor that he’s demonstrated over the past month.

James Cook | BUF (at HOU)

It’s been a wild ride for the James Cook production profile over the past month, but with three top-15 finishes and a pair of top-10s in those four games, who are we to argue?

• In Weeks 8-9, he ran for 330 yards and saw just one target

• In Weeks 10-11, he ran for 101 yards and saw eight targets

His first touchdown catch of the season came on a beautiful design from 25 yards out, where Josh Allen seemed to diagnose the mismatch the second the ball touched his hands. This offense may be built around its unique quarterback, but it features its dynamic running back in a major way, and its willingness to be creative with Cook makes him a top-10 play, even against an elite defense.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs PHI)

That’s back-to-back underwhelming performances from Javonte Williams, but I’m not worried in the slightest.

The lack of usage in the passing game bugs me (four catches over his past four games), but I don’t mind trading that off for 16.1 carries per game and loads of red zone work.

Red Zone Touch Leaderboard Through Week 10

1. Christian McCaffrey: 52

2. Jonathan Taylor: 51

T-3. Travis Etienne: 41

T-3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 41

5. Josh Jacobs: 40

6. Williams: 39

He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season and showing no signs of wearing down. His efficient style on the ground has opened up the passing game, and that, in turn, allows the run game to stay effective.

Dak Prescott walks into Week 11 as the second-rated play-action passer in the leagu,e and that’s not possible if there isn’t a level of fear that comes with the fake.

Play-Action Prescott

• 101 attempts
• 83 completions
• 860 yards
• 12 TDs
• 0 INTs

Williams is deserving of an RB1 ranking this week, and he sits atop my RB list of players with that surname this week, even in a tough spot.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at CHI)

A third-quarter ankle injury in Week 11 has Jaylen Warren’s Week 12 status up in the air for this picture-perfect matchup.

Regardless of who is under center, this system is as conservative as any in the league, and that’s resulted in him hauling in multiple passes in every game this season.

READ MORE: Jaylen Warren Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Steelers RB, and Will He Play in Week 12?

Kenneth Gainwell looked good last week, and that was the case prior to Warren leaving the game. I think it’s fair to pencil in more of a split this week, presuming health, but not a change in terms of the overall hierarchy.

Warren has six finishes this season as an RB2 or better, and he’s a great bet to increase that number this week if he’s as healthy as he suggested in the post-game. These are two of the six worst defenses in terms of yards allowed per game, giving this game a little more fantasy appeal than I think is being assumed across the industry.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (at KC)

Jonathan Taylor is RB1 this season, averaging 2.5 more PPR than RB2 in Christian McCaffrey. That difference alone is an interesting note, but what if we look at the expected points based on where their touches occur on the field?

• Taylor: 273.9 PPR points with 181.3 expected
• McCaffrey: 248.8 PPR points with 254 expected

How crazy is that?

Taylor has the top game at the position, three of the top-9, and five of the top-19. The Chiefs’ defense is great, and coming off a bye, but teams have had six years to figure out how to stop JT and have yet to do it.

If you want to argue that Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. NYG) is the better per-dollar DFS option, fine, maybe you’re right. But players at this level are largely matchup proof, and Taylor certainly fits that mold: zero concerns.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at GB)

I truly thought Jordan Mason had a chance to own this backfield and that the early-season injury to Aaron Jones would open that opportunity. But it’s clear the Vikings want the veteran presence at running back next to their developmental quarterback, thus relegating Mason to handcuff duties and nothing more.

Against the Bears last week, Jones was on the field for two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and Mason checked in at 16.7% (the fantasy Gods don’t care about C.J. Ham’s 27.8% snap share, but those were six routes that come off the plate of these two).

Mason was able to reach double-digit fantasy points on the back of a single drive. Minnesota’s first drive of the fourth quarter came on a short field that Mason quickly turned into 24 rushing yards and a score. But considering that he had just 19 rushing yards prior, he was effectively scripted out and simply cashed in on his one chance to do so.

Good for him, but not predictive.

Even if you think that this backfield trends closer to a committee with time, Jones is the preferred option in the pass game, and the Vikes are a near touchdown underdog. Mason is rosterable because depth at the position is tough to find, but he’s not on the flex radar this week in any format.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs MIN)

Josh Jacobs was effective on his first seven carries over the weekend against the Giants (40 yards), but a knee injury removed him from the game, and he was never able to return.

Green Bay’s RB1 has yet to miss a game since being acquired and has missed a total of 10 games in his six-plus professional seasons. Given the nature of the playoff race in the NFC, the Packers don’t exactly have much room for error, and with the bye well behind them, they are very motivated to be aggressive here.

Emanuel Wilson (11-yard touchdown on Sunday after Jacobs departed) is the speculative add to make. The Packers play on Thanksgiving after this week, giving them a mini bye ahead of a favorable spot in Week 14 against the Bears at Lambeau.

The hope is that this isn’t a serious injury and that you’ll have your top-10 RB back before long. Wilson would serve as the lead back, but this offense would likely lean into Jordan Love more than ask the backup to assume the role Jacobs has filled.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs IND)

Isiah Pacheco continues to battle this MCL sprain, and considering that it took the Chiefs two months to show any desire in featuring him, I think it’s more likely than not that Kareem Hunt is holding flexible value at a minimum for the remainder of the fantasy season.

When Pacheco was first injured, the prevailing thought was that Hunt would lead this backfield, but that Brashard Smith would assume some of the vacated work, thus capping the upside.

We can argue about the value of this backfield as a whole, but this isn’t a committee situation: Hunt was on the field for 82.3% of their offensive snaps in Denver last week.

Smith is an interesting player with versatility that feeds into this system, but it would appear Andy Reid is sticking with what he knows as this team tries to battle for a playoff spot.

The Colts are a bottom-10 defense in third-down conversion rate and red-zone touchdown percentage: Kansas City needs to establish balance, and this is a spot where they might be able to do so.

I’m OK with playing the other side of this offense in DFS as a contrarian build (Patrick Mahomes stacks profile as chalky) and think he’s a safe top 20 play in season-long formats.

Whenever we have proof that Pacheco is nearing full strength, we can reevaluate, but we seem to be multiple weeks away from that conversation.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at CHI)

Jaylen Warren wanted it noted that he could have returned from the ankle injury last week, so for now, he sounds to be on the right side of questionable.

Kenneth Gainwell has shown out when given the chance, and while I think he needs Warren to be compromised (or out) to be a reasonable fantasy start, his usage last week wasn’t a mistake.

He caught an 11-yard touchdown on the first drive, his second red zone touch of the day. Warren is a solid back, but this offense is aware that it needs to control the clock to compete, and that opens the door for 30-ish RB touches if the game is tight.

The Aaron Rodgers (wrist) injury is lingering, though I’m not sure this conservative Arthur Smith offense looks much different schematically with Mason Rudolph under center. Gainwell is a low-end flex if Warren suits up, and if that’s not the case, I’d jump him up to my top 15 without hesitation against a Bears defense that has allowed 19+ PPR points to a running back four times this season.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at TEN)

Kenneth Walker has three games this season with a snap rate over 50%, and two of them have come in November, as Seattle considers a soft launch of him as their lead back as a path to a higher offensive ceiling.

In response, Walker scored, caught all of his targets, and finished with 111 yards against a stingy Rams defense. While toiling in a split, he had produced at least 20% under expectation in four straight games, but on Sunday, he was 40.9% better than what the average NFL back would have done with his touch diet.

Tiny sample, yes, but we have to walk before we can run, and Week 11 was a positive development.

While Charlie Brown has tried to kick this football before, this feels a bit different. The Seahawks view themselves as legit contenders, and if they are going to function at the peak of their potential, it’s on the back of Walker.

I don’t think they are yet ready to commit in a featured way, but the trends point to him getting the first chance to shine in this plus-matchup, and an explosive Week 12 could swing things in a major way for the remainder of the season.

Fantasy Playoffs Schedule

• Week 15 vs. Colts
• Week 16 vs. Rams (we just saw Walker flex his upside against them)
• Week 17 at Panthers

Kyle Monangai | CHI (vs PIT)

This backfield is D’Andre Swift’s, but Kyle Monangai isn’t going away (37% snap share with 13 touches on Sunday).

The backup got the first carry of Chicago’s second drive last week and got consecutive carries inside of the Minnesota 10 in the first half, the second of which was a one-yard score. The Bears are clearly interested in keeping him involved, even if it’s more to keep Swift near full strength.

From a profile perspective, last week wasn’t great. He ran 12 times for 23 yards and failed to cross the line of scrimmage five times. He profiles as more of a banger to Swift’s versatile skill set … sound familiar?

Roschon Johnson scored six goal-line touchdowns in that role last season, never owning much efficiency in the process. Monangai is never going to rank as a strong flex option because of my low touch and per-touch projection, but a single plunge can make him worthy of flexing, and that role holds weight this time of year.

Kyren Williams | LAR (vs TB)

With a rushing score in three straight games, Kyren Williams is rounding into the best version of himself at the optimal time.

His 34-yard gain last week against the Seahawks was his longest rush of the season, and if we get a hint of explosive potential, we are talking about a safe top-10 back the rest of the way.

Even if that doesn’t stick, Williams has 38 red zone touches this season (six games with at least four touches inside the opposition’s 20). His pre- and post-contact numbers are better this season than last, so while the Blake Corum fans will mention his recent usage, I wouldn’t sweat it in a major way.

The Bucs are the NFL’s best rush rate in terms of success rate against the running back position, and that’s why Williams is on the outside looking in at my top 10 for this singular week. However, you’re still playing him and understanding that better days are ahead as the season nears its conclusion.

Nick Chubb | HOU (vs BUF)

Yep, time to move one.

We assumed it to be true this time last week, and with two data points now in hand, we can say with a level of certainty that this is Woody Marks’ backfield.

Nick Chubb has nine touches in total over the past two weeks, and this is how he’s best used. Long gone are the days when he gets stronger with time, so if he can be used as a hammer in select spots, I think he’s being used optimally.

That role might end up meaning an important carry for the Texans in this favorable matchup, but it’s not nearly enough to matter for our purposes.

I’m fine with cutting Chubb altogether. Sure, he’s the RB2 and is only an injury away from an increased role, but this is a shaky offensive line, and we just haven’t seen consistent explosion from the veteran back.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (at LV)

Volume hasn’t been an issue all season for Quinshon Judkins, but the limitations of his surrounding environment are beginning to pick away at his value.

In Weeks 6-11, he has one top 25 finish at the position. In theory, his workload (17+ carries in three of his past four games) is enough to project him as a top 20 RB when in a good spot like this. I’m sticking with that theory this week, though I am nervous.

Judkins has picked up less than half a yard before contact in three of his past four games, and the loaded box rate is getting out of control (76.5% against the Ravens last weekend). The Raiders aren’t a great defense, but you either run at Maxx Crosby or you run at a high quantity of defenders.

Neither of those situations is great, and the rushing equity drops even further if you assume essentially no respect is being shown to this passing game.

I’d rather have volume and chase touchdowns than have touchdown potential and chase volume (David Montgomery profile). Judkins is a player that you’re starting, even if you’re not overly excited about it.

Rachaad White | TB (at LAR)

Rachaad White can’t run the ball, and that’s an issue when “running back” is your profession.

For his career, he averages just 3.8 yards per carry and is more than twice as likely to get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage as he is to pick up 10+ yards. His 3.9 yards per carry this season show no signs of growth, and after Sean Tucker’s explosive effort against the Bills, his carry equity is low.

That said, if Bucky Irving misses another game, White projects as a flex piece in a game where we expect the Bucs to be playing from behind. He’s hauled in 28-of-32 targets this season, and given the offensive injuries that Baker Mayfield is navigating, I have no issue in penciling him in for a handful of targets.

I don’t think it’ll be a work of art, but five catches and 50 total yards is a low bar to clear and really all he needs to be in the PPR flex mix.

Ray Davis | BUF (at HOU)

Ray Davis remains the James Cook handcuff, but with him touching the ball just three times this month, he’s not on the list of RB2s that need to be held in every situation.

Given the rash of injuries and byes this time of year, a team battling for a playoff position will likely need to squeeze value out of every roster spot, and if that’s your situation, you can do better than Davis.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at CIN)

Will the toothpaste be put back in the tube?

Rhamondre Stevenson has missed three straight games with this toe injury. But he’s been able to practice in a limited capacity, and the team is operating with cautious optimism regarding his status for this weekend.

But is he still the lead running back in New England?

Mike Vrabel was stubborn in his own right for the first two months of this season. Still, after seeing TreVeyon Henderson flash some of his game-breaking talent (two 55+ yard TD runs in Week 10 against the Bucs being the tip of the iceberg), this is a fluid situation at best.

Stevenson has averaged under 2.5 yards per carry in three of his past four games and hasn’t earned more than two targets in a game since September. At best, I think we are looking at a committee situation with Henderson holding the edge in the passing game.

Now, this is as good a spot as you could ask for, something that gives me confidence in ranking both as a top 30 option at the position (provided health). That said, I’m skeptical that Stevenson is a plus-asset before New England goes on their bye in Week 14.

After missing extended time, penciling in a ramp-up is reasonable. Coming out of the bye, it seems likely that both of these backs will be at full strength, and that’s when we are going to have to make a real decision. We will deal with that situation when we get there. Still, two matchups against potent offenses immediately after the break (vs. BUF, at BAL) have me leaning very much toward Henderson moving forward.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (at SF)

This season, there have been seven occurrences in which a running back carried the rock 17 times and saw multiple targets in three straight games:

• Jonathan Taylor (Weeks 1-6)
• Christian McCaffrey (Weeks 3-7)
• Saquon Barkley (Weeks 1-4)
• Kyren Williams (Weeks 5-7)
• Quinshon Judkins (Weeks 3-5)
• Dowdle (Weeks 5-7)
• Dowdle (Current)

Not a typo.

Dowdle’s name is on that list twice, as this offense has leaned on him as a bellcow at a high level since he proved himself in Chuba Hubbard’s absence. The next lead back to fail to reach his season average in PPR points against the 49ers will be the first this season, thus fueling my top-10 ranking of Dowdle.

I don’t think he’s a real threat to lead the position in scoring, but the top of Tier 2 is certainly within reason. Could he make for a contrarian DFS captain in a game where Christian McCaffrey is going to be the chalk choice (a big Dowdle game could mean a low possession game and thus a limiting of opportunities for CMC)?

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at DAL)

Saquon Barkley was RB11 in Week 5, and he has just one weekly finish better than RB20 since.

This season obviously hasn’t gone according to plan for those who spent a first-round pick on him this summer (gain rate down from 82.9% to 74.3%), but 48 carries over the past two weeks is enough to keep me optimistic in season-long and interested in DFS.

The Cowboys are coming in on a short week, and the Eagles are in a battle with the entire NFC West for the NFC’s top seed. If you have a competitive team with Barkley on it, I think you’ve survived the worst.

They say it’s not how you start, but how you finish, a mantra that could ring true as championships are handed out this winter.

Sean Tucker | TB (at LAR)

Sean Tucker on the ground and Rachaad White through the air make for a heck of a Frankenstein backfield in the absence of Bucky Irving, and should the starter miss another game, I think those roles are pretty clear.

My projection would be essentially split. Tucker gets the edge in carry count and TD equity, but with White handling the bulk of the routes, both would come in around 10-12 PPR points in a neutral matchup, but this isn’t that.

Rams Defensive Rankings

• Points Per Game: 2nd
• Red Zone TD%: 2nd
• PPR Points Allowed To RBs: 3rd
• Yards Per Play: 7th

I think this script works well away from the traditional run game, which puts White in a position to pile up cheap points quicker than Tucker.

I’m resisting the urge to lock him in after the big week in a great matchup.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs SEA)

Tony Pollard hasn’t had a dozen carries in a game since Week 5, and that was also the date of his last touchdown.

The Titans are a hot mess on the offensive side of the ball, and with them motivated to get a read on Tyjae Spears, why would we project any role growth for Pollard moving forward?

We are looking at a player with a 10-ish carry and 3-ish target projection for a team that is averaging 1.2 fewer points than any other offense in the league. That’s not a top 30 profile for me, and there are a handful of offenses (Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago) that have two RBs ranked above Pollard for me this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at ARI)

Everything was clicking for the Jags’ run game last weekend against the Chargers as part of a 35-6 run.

It was great to see, but it’s unlikely we’ll see a game script play out like that again. I’m not going to say that last week lowered Travis Etienne in my rest of season ranks, but it was trending in that direction until Bhyashul Tuten got dinged up.

Jacksonville got both of its running backs involved early last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this franchise wanted to get more looks at the rookie down the stretch of this season.

That said, with him nursing the ankle injury, you can feel good about Etienne as an RB2. He has 18+ touches in all three games this month, and while he hasn’t been efficient as a pass catcher, 33 targets is enough usage for us to feel good about him in any script.

Since Week 5, the Cardinals have been the sixth-worst red zone defense in the league, giving him one more path to reaching double figures in PPR points, and are worthy of a spot in your starting lineup.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at CIN)

The breakout is upon us, and this looks a lot like 2024 Bucky Irving in a season-winning profile sort of way.

Against the undermanned Jets on Thursday night, the rookie turned his 24 touches into 93 yards and three scores (two rushing and one receiving). Henderson entered the league with plus-grades in his splash play ability, making it ironic that his best game of this season came in a contest in which he didn’t have a single touch gain more than 10 yards.

We obviously saw that in Week 10 in Tampa Bay, and the sky is truly the limit if he can combine the volume with the explosion.

Rhamondre Stevenson is going to come back sooner than later, and that adds some uncertainty to this situation, but does it matter?

If we are looking at 25-30 touches across the RB position in this Drake Maye offense, even a 50/50 split might be enough to get Henderson into the weekly RB2 discussion with the upside for far more.

That’s my tentative expectation until proven otherwise, and in the scope of Week 12, should Stevenson return, I don’t care. The Bengals have been a bottom-5 pre-contact run defense all season long, and with the projected script very much slanted in favor of New England, you’re starting Henderson (and Stevenson for that matter).

You were patient, and if you’ve managed to survive, get ready to be rewarded!

Trey Benson | ARI (vs JAX)

Trey Benson (arthroscopic surgery on his meniscus) was eligible to return from injured reserve two weeks ago and, should he trend in that direction (initial timetable: 4-6 weeks), he profiles as the leader of this backfield.

Benson last played in Weeks 3-4, and he was one of seven backs with at least four targets and 35 rushing yards in both of those weeks. The others:

• Jonathan Taylor
• Saquon Barkley
• Christian McCaffrey
• Bijan Robinson
• Breece Hall
• Omarion Hampton

Bam Knight is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season, and Emari Demercado has a high ankle sprain. I’m confident that this is Benson’s gig when he returns, so stay on top of the news (day-to-day has been the sentiment all week): he’s a flexible player the moment he is ruled active.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs SEA)

There are three running backs with 3+ catches in each of their past five games: Christian McCaffrey, De’Von Achane, and Tyjae Spears.

No big deal, just fantasy royalty and a man lost in the Tennessee abyss.

If we got any signs of Tony Pollard being phased out, I’d be the first to jump on Spears as a viable PPR flex, especially in a script that figures to lean into the pass in short order, but we don’t, so I can’t.

Spears hasn’t cleared 12 touches in a game this season and has actually seen his involvement decline in consecutive games. I think there’s a fantasy asset in this profile, but until we get proof that the Titans agree, there’s not much you can do about it.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at NO)

For the fifth time this season, Tyler Allgeier punched in a touchdown from six yards or closer, but it is worth noting that the other four Atlanta RB red zone touches went to Bijan Robinson in the overtime loss to the Panthers.

Nothing has changed.

Allgeier is a bail-out flex play if you’re really stuck, but with no more than six touches in four of his past five games, you really are just chasing a short-range score.

If there’s a week to do it, it’s in a competitive script like this where the offense is adjusting to Kirk Cousins, but I still think you’re looking at single-digit touches, and that makes him a thin option (my RB36).

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at DET)

Tyrone Tracy has been fine in the two games post-Skattebo injury, but he hasn’t owned this backfield in the way that we had hoped.

In Week 10 against the Bears, he ran 14 times for 71 yards, but Devin Singletary out-scored him as a pass catcher, 8.3 PPR points to 1.0.

In Week 11, Tracy held the edge in pass game production, but Singletary got the valuable carries and punched in a pair of touchdowns.

I don’t think either running back in this system has top 10 upside, and if New York is wedged into a one-dimensional script, the floor becomes an issue.

Of course, Tracy’s resume as a former receiver looms, and that has me slightly favoring him in PPR formats this week. In a perfect world, you’re not relying too heavily on either back (both sit outside my top 25 this week) and waiting for one to work while the other is away in terms of touch projection.

Woody Marks | HOU (vs BUF)

Woody Marks has rushed for 107 yards on 32 carries over the past two weeks and has turned four targets into 25 yards across those games.

That’s about as ordinary as it gets, but with him on the field for 72.3% of Houston’s offensive snaps in those two games (35-9 touch edge over Nick Chubb), we have a level of clarity that we’ve been begging for.

The Bills rank bottom-2 in rush defense this season against opposing running backs, per rush yards per game, yards per rush, rush EPA, and rush TD rate. We saw Sean Tucker dismantle them last week, and while I’d never project Marks for such a performance, the knowledge that IF a running back were to blow up in this spot, it’s him is enough to justify starting him in all formats.

The concern for a play like this is that Josh Allen puts points on the board early and messes up the script, but this Texans defense is as talented as any in the league, so that floor game environment isn’t as likely as it is in most Buffalo games.

Marks is a mid-range RB2 for me, ranking in the D’Andre Swift (vs. PIT) and Breece Hall (at BAL) tier for Week 12.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at TEN)

This committee role is slowly slipping away from Zach Charbonnet, and his 3.3 yards per carry aren’t exactly giving the Seahawks a reason to keep beating their head against the wall.

He’s been held under a 45% snap share three times this season, and they’ve all come over the past three games. Over that stretch, he’s still touching the ball 12 times per game, but with no real versatility or efficiency to speak of, you’re playing the dangerous game of touchdown or bust.

Kenneth Walker III hasn’t exactly seized this role, but he carries more per carry upside and seems to be one explosive effort away from putting Charbonnet in the rearview. This is a great matchup for Seattle, which could run the ball 35 times, making both of its running backs playable. But you need to be aware of this backfield’s trajectory as you piece together your postseason roster.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at DAL)

“If you got me on fantasy, get rid of me.”

If A.J. Brown is going to lean into his post-football career as a fantasy football analyst, we need much more context.

Was he talking in non-PPR or PPR? Did this mean that we should have been in on DeVonta Smith? Do we think he was aware that the defense would destroy the Lions, rendering everyone on that side of the ball useless?

We need details.

The details surrounding his performance on the field were just as confusing.

Over the past decade, his 49 yards were the eighth fewest by a receiver in a game with 7+ catches and a 10+ yard aDOT. It was a clunky stat line on Sunday night against the Lions, where he felt involved but never really threatening.

Brown has been held out of the end zone in five of his past six games and has caught under 70% of his targets in every qualified game (multiple targets) this season. Some of his predictive metrics are in the same range as what we’ve seen in past seasons, but he has just two end zone targets (12+ in each of the past three seasons).

He’s struggling, and the Eagles are winning.

Philadelphia wasn’t pressed into having to pass in volume back in Week 1 when these teams first met (twice as many rush attempts as completions), and that’s my expectation for this week as well, with Dallas coming in on a short week.

The season-high seven receptions from last week are a step in the right direction, though I wouldn’t mind seeing some layup targets. You’re playing Brown, even if he suggests doing otherwise, as his talent/target share combination offers too much upside against a vulnerable defense.

Suppose this passing game can take advantage of this matchup, wheels up. The Bears are on the books for next week, and the Raiders/Commanders await them at the beginning of the fantasy playoffs.

Alec Pierce | IND (at KC)

On the surface, the Alec Pierce profile should only be of interest to us when in times of need. Deep-ball threats are rarely consistent producers, and while the upside is intoxicating, the typically low floor can be prohibitive in a major way.

But Pierce appears to be the exception to the rule.

He owns a 20.4 aDOT and has seen 59.6% of his targets come 15+ yards downfield. Imagine a young kid with attention issues playing a video game, just trying to either score or turn the ball over.

It’s somehow working.

Pierce has a 25+ yard catch in five straight games and has been a top 22 PPR receiver in three of his past four games. In the weeks leading into the Week 11 bye, we began to see signs of Daniel Jones turning into a pumpkin, and that could cut the legs out of Pierce’s value in short order.

This is a tough matchup, and with the breadcrumbs hinting at regression on Jones’ behalf, I’m tempted to look elsewhere to fill my PPR flex. The Chiefs are a high-end defense against the deep ball, with a passer rating that ranks in the top quarter of the league, and their aggressive style (top quarter of the league in both blitz and pressure rate) makes those chunk plays even more difficult to count on.

If you’re going to roll the dice on a receiver, Pierce has the skill set and is attached to an elite offense, so you could do worse. I would, however, be skeptical that he can sustain his production in this variant role against an elite defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs NYG)

Pick yourself up and get back on the horse.

Last week hurt if you were counting on a big Amon-Ra St. Brown performance as the Sunday finale, but there’s no reason to think that his struggles are here to stay.

We can dive into the weather splits for Detroit’s WR1 another time: he doesn’t project to have any more cold games this fantasy season. The portion of those splits that you need to be comfortable with this week is his home numbers, and, man, are they impressive.

Last 9 Home Games

• 30.6% production over expectation
• 8.0 receptions per game
• 101.7 receiving yards
• 9 TD receptions

Don’t waste time sweating what the 12-target two-catch stinker in Philadelphia last week means moving forward. St. Brown is a bona fide star who is in a position to carry your squad this weekend.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (vs CAR)

At this point, if there were good news, we would have heard it.

The Brandon Aiyuk (knee) timeline hasn’t been clear over the past month, and asking him to take the field is beginning to feel like a long shot, never mind proving to us that he is capable of posting usable numbers for an offense that has a handful of capable other options.

If he’s hanging out on your IR and you wouldn’t otherwise use the free roster spot, there’s no real reason to pivot. Still, outside of that situation, it’s time to admit that you’re never going to feel good about plugging him in this season, and that makes him cuttable in redraft formats.

He’s a 27-year-old in a great system with a pair of 75-1000-7 seasons on his resume: the asking price in 2026 will be interesting, and I’m going to go ahead and guess that I’ll be buying at a discount.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at ARI)

Brian Thomas (ankle) was never expected to play last week, but he’s trending toward a return. He missed consecutive games, and in that time, Jacksonville has added a target (Jakobi Meyers) and gotten an encouraging display from a rookie (Bhayshul Tuten). It is banking on a return from another starter (Brenton Strange).

In theory, this isn’t exactly lining up for BTJ to find his form, but crazier things have happened. The Cardinals allowed 18+ PPR points to Hunter Renfrow and Calvin Ridley earlier in the season, two receivers with their own QB issues, so I don’t think it’s crazy to consider him as a WR3 this weekend, should he suit up as expected.

If all reports are clean before this team travels, I’ll have Thomas ranked as the WR1 in this offense and in that Jordan Addison/DK Metcalf tier of “I want to bet on the single play upside but am not sure your QB is up for it” receivers.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs SEA)

The Titans wasted no time in announcing that Calvin Ridley had broken his fibula during the loss to the Texans last week.

This is obviously a bummer, though fantasy managers had long since moved on from him as a viable flex option. He turns 31 in December, and while the premature end to his season isn’t ideal, the teal eaves suggest he should be healthy enough this offseason to work out for teams and try to earn a short-term deal.

We’ve seen good teams (think Baltimore and Buffalo) try to patchwork their WR room in the past with a past-his-prime athlete like this. I’m not sure that Ridley has much left in the tank, but I’m not willing to say that the version of him we saw this year with a rookie QB is predictive either.

Track his progress during the spring. Right now, his name holds more value than his production, but in the right spot, I could see him being a reasonable pick late in redraft leagues.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (at LV)

Cedric Tillman has played over 72% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps in both of his weeks back from injury, something that is probably more damning to the receiving core than it is encouraging about Tillman’s trajectory.

Across those two games, he has an 11.6-yard aDOT. The big plays are where his bread is buttered, but a 37.2% slot rate last week was at least interesting. This is a low-octane offense, and if he starts to operate more out of the slot, there’s at least a chance for him to be efficient with his looks, a non-negotiable as a piece of this offense.

Do I think Tillman takes advantage of this matchup?

I wouldn’t bet on it in a big way, but having him on the back end of your roster for one more week to find out isn’t a bad idea.  Even after this week, Cleveland has favorable matchups coming up (banged-up SF in Week 13 before meetings with the Titans and Bears), and if he can carve out a 5-7 target role, that could prove to be at least worth flex consideration.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs PHI)

It’s a good thing the Cowboys disciplined CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens for the first drive of their dominating win over the Raiders on Monday night … how else was he going to give us essentially the exact production that we’ve come to expect this season?

Lamb’s good day (5-66-1) probably should have been better with a late touchdown miss, but 17.6 PPR points is pretty hard to complain about. His aDOT is up 45.8% from a season ago, and while I’d normally want to see that be dialed back some, I think it’s part of the plan.

With Pickens on the other side, why not run both vertically and take your chances on whatever side has less help?

Lamb is one of the premier target earners in the sport, playing for a pass-centric offense. The floor is elite, and with the change in route type, his access to special weeks is on the rise.

I’d be surprised if he had a ceiling performance in this spot, but the Eagles have had good defenses in the past, and Lamb has 100 yards or a score in four of his past five meetings with the divisional rival.

Lamb ranks as the last receiver among my top tier for Week 12.

Chimere Dike | TEN (vs SEA)

Chimere Dike’s stock gathered some steam after clearing 16 PPR points in Weeks 7 and 8, but he was invisible in Week 9 before the bye. He wasn’t overly involved before suffering a concussion last weekend against the Texans.

Calvin Ridley is done for the season, and the Titans are going to continue to trail: it seems more likely than not that a pass catcher from this team is going to deserve at least to be rostered, and while Dike is my favorite to earn that title, we need him to prove his health before ranking him as a must-stash player.

If you’re pressed for roster space, move on. Life is too short to be buying Tennessee stock in 2025.

Chris Godwin | TB (at LAR)

You hate to see this.

Chris Godwin had the brutal injury (fibula) late last season, and while he was healthy enough to return at the end of September, the injury has had him sidelined for the past month, and we could be looking at another few weeks before he trends close to playing.

With Mike Evans on the shelf and Bucky Irving banged up, there are targets to be had, but a 29-year-old receiver who is coming off a full year of battling this injury gives me little confidence.

If you have an IR roster slot that won’t be used elsewhere, I don’t mind keeping Godwin. Still, things seem to be trending in the wrong direction, especially for a team that very well could opt to ease him back when he is reasonably healthy in the hopes of having him close to full speed come the postseason.

Chris Olave | NO (vs ATL)

This offense is boring at best and dreadful at worst, but even at its worst, Chris Olave is a fantasy asset.

He posted his first 100-yard game of the season in Week 10 against the Panthers before the bye, a performance that was highlighted by a 62-yard score. The fourth-year star has a touchdown or double-digit targets in nine of 10 games this season, a role that is locked in weekly with Tyler Shough clearly comfortable throwing his way and Rashid Shaheed now in Seattle.

His ceiling doesn’t measure up to the others at the top of the target share leaderboard, but you were never asking for that from him. He’s finished three of his past five games as a top-20 PPR receiver, and I think he makes it four of six against a defense that he sees twice a season.

New Orleans is coming off its bye, while Atlanta is in the midst of a rough travel stretch that saw it play in New England (Week 9), fly to Germany (Week 10), and host the Panthers last week.

Christian Kirk | HOU (vs BUF)

The Texans seem to be embracing more of a vertical passing attack, and that’s left Christian Kirk out in the cold (last two weeks: 5o routes, seven targets, and nine yards).

What would suggest that change is coming?

Davis Mills has been feeding Nico Collins at a high rate, keeping Dalton Schultz productive, and developing Jayden Higgins. I like all three of those trends to stick, which means Kirk is the fourth option in an average-at-best passing game.

You can move on.

Buffalo’s run defense is its primary problem, and after this week, Houston goes on the road to face the Colts and Chiefs. If you’re holding Kirk for the home games against the Cardinals and Raiders in Weeks 15-16, I think you’re better served to free up the roster spot now and add him back if you still feel the pull in a few weeks.

I’m betting you won’t.

Christian Watson | GB (vs MIN)

I try not to overreact to single games, never mind single plays, but Christian Watson scoring the go-ahead touchdown last week on a contested ball that was thrown despite double coverage was one of the more impactful plays of the week.

Think about it.

He doesn’t make that play if he’s worried about his body betraying him, and Jordan Love doesn’t throw that pass unless he trusts his guy to make a play on it.

You could argue that Love is a little too trustworthy in that respect at times, but a healthy Watson is a dangerous Watson when paired with an aggressive Love, and those stars seem to be aligning at the perfect time.

The Vikings have allowed the seventh most YPA on deep passes this season, with six touchdowns against one interception on those attempts. They’ve given you no reason not to test them vertically, and those are the spots that a healthy Watson thrives.

I think you could argue him up into the low-end WR2 conversation, but I’ve tried to show discipline in ranking him as more of a flex. Regardless, I believe there are valuable targets to be had in an offense that could lean more toward the pass, and Watson is as good a bet as any to see a drastic bump in usage.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at TEN)

Cooper Kupp logged his third-highest snap share of the season last week against the Rams, but I think that was more a game script thing than a designed plan (his top three snap share games have come in Seattle’s three losses).

Even with the spike in playing time, the veteran continued his season-long streak of failing to eclipse 40 receiving yards in a game and has turned his 225 routes into just a single end zone target.

Rashid Shaheed is coming for this WR2 role, and, with Sam Darnold, is more comfortable funneling the high-percentage looks to AJ Barner. Where exactly does Kupp win even if he continues to play three-quarters of the offensive snaps?

This is a good matchup on a week where four teams are on a bye, so you’re not dropping Kupp right now, but I think we are one dud away from pulling the trigger.

Darius Slayton | NYG (at DET)

What could have been.

Jameis Winston started last week, and a player like Darius Slayton is built for a risk-taking QB like that, but it wasn’t meant to be with this hamstring injury nagging at the explosive receiver.

For the season, Slayton has three games with 4+ receptions, and two came in Weeks 8-9. He doesn’t possess the skill set of a consistent option, but he has shown some signs of coming around under Jaxson Dart for an offense in desperate need of playmakers.

I’m hopeful that we get him (and Dart) back this week. While it’s a tough matchup, it is on a fast track in a game where the G-Men figure to be playing from behind. You know what you’re signing up for, and if you’re in a spot where a wide range of outcomes is acceptable, you have my blessing to roll these dice.

New York has been an underdog in eight of Dart’s nine career games with 15+ PPR points.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at NO)

Has there been a less impactful receiver that is on our radar over the past month than Darnell Mooney?

Weeks 8-11, Production Profile

• 129 routes
• 21 targets
• 6 catches
• 33.8 expected PPR points
• 13.7 PPR points

I feel pretty good about the answer being a resounding “no.” He’s available in the majority of leagues right now, and I think that tracks: at this pace, there was no way he was going to establish himself as a player with a high enough floor ever to be usable, so why hold?

If nothing had changed, I’d agree with you. But now that this is a Kirk Cousins-led offense, I think there’s at least a thread to pull when it comes to rostering who we assumed to be Atlanta’s WR2.

This is the first of two meetings the rest of the way with the Saints, a defense that allows the fourth-highest deep TD% in the sport this season. In fact, you could pick apart a portion of all of the remaining games on Atlanta’s schedule, but that doesn’t mean anything if the targets are lacking or sporadic.

They might still be. Let me be very clear and say that, in the year 2025, Cousins isn’t likely to be Joe Flacco to Michael Penix’s Jake Browning. That said, there wasn’t a ton of separation a year ago between Drake London (battling a knee issue right now) and Mooney when he was under center (PPR stats):

London

• 2.7 points per catch
• 1.8 points per target
• 91.3 air yards per game

Mooney

• 3.1 points per catch
• 1.8 points per target
• 86.5 air yards per game

Again, Mooney is a long shot to be a lineup staple at any point this season, but I do think his outlook changed last week, and there’s at least enough in the profile for me to give him a one-week trial run, assuming that he’s on your waiver wire after a disaster of a month.

Davante Adams | LAR (vs TB)

Davante Adams caught one of eight targets last week against the Seahawks, and while he hasn’t been the most efficient receiver this season (50% catch rate), that’s a bit extreme.

But because he’s Davante Adams, the one reception was a one-yard touchdown (his 1,000th career catch). At worst, he’s a TD vulture that is on the field plenty, and at best, he’s the most feared red zone threat in the league.

It sounds like the veteran is physically OK, so I’m starting him with confidence against a much more favorable opponent.

All 10 of his touchdowns this season have come on end zone targets, and they have an average depth of 8.4 yards, a number that is heavily influenced by the 44-yarder in Week 3’s loss to the Eagles.

This is a unique player filling a unique role, and we have no choice but to embrace it at this point.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs NYJ)

DeAndre Hopkins played a season-high 68.3% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps last weekend in Cleveland due to the absence of Rashod Bateman, but it didn’t mean anything for his fantasy value.

He finished the game with just a single reception for 11 yards on four targets. Hopkins has yet to reach 20 receiving yards in a game during this win streak, and if the plan is to unleash him in the postseason, the Ravens don’t appear in a hurry to ramp him up.

There’s no reason to chase name value here, no matter the status of Bateman.

DeMario Douglas | NE (at CIN)

We entered this season thinking that DeMario Douglas had a chance at being the AFC East’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson, but that hasn’t materialized in the slightest.

His next game with 5+ catches this year will be his first, and he’s oddly relying on big plays to give us any value whatsoever (26+ yard catch in four straight games).

There are a lot of things to like about this Patriots offense, but there is only one that matters for us, and that’s Stefon Diggs. Without the elevated floor that we thought we’d have access to, I’m more likely to cut ties with Douglas than I am to hold.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at DAL)

It’s cliché, but the run game sets up the pass game, and that’s the Philadelphia approach.

For the season, DeVonta Smith has turned 14 play-action targets into 222 yards and two scores. He’s a tough cover when the defense is spread thin, and while the Cowboys certainly showed better last week on the defensive side of the ball, the Jalen Hurts/Smith/AJ Brown trio offers slightly more than Geno Smith/Tre Tucker/Jack Bech.

Smith is coming off a dud against the Lions (1-8-0), but that’s the price of doing business with the Eagles these days. In the last two games in which he was held under 50 receiving yards, he came back the following week with a triple-digit performance.

I’m not projecting him for that sort of production, mainly because I don’t think Philly will need it, but he’s been the most consistent receiver on this offense, and with my belief that they score 30+ points, at least one receiver is going to get home.

I have Smith ranked over Brown, though both are in the WR2 tier for me this week and moving forward.

DJ Moore | CHI (vs PIT)

DJ Moore waited until the second half in Minnesota last week to record his only reception, and that brings his total to one over the past two weeks.

Yikes.

The veteran was on the field for 80.8% of the snaps in the win, but he couldn’t shake free and saw his target total decline for a third straight week.

Luther Burden seems to be ascending, and his gain is coming at the expense of Moore. I have a hard time thinking that there is something better on the waiver wire, so you’re probably holding at this point, but until something changes, he’s not on my flex radar in an offense that can be Jekyll and Hyde on a good day.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at CHI)

This situation is getting murkier before it gets clearer.

Last week, DK Metcalf had 21 first-half yards and was one of eight Steelers to see a target in the first 30 minutes. This isn’t an explosive offense in the least, and that requires plus-volume to make things work, so that was disappointing to see.

Add in the Aaron Rodgers wrist issue, and a boring passing game could graduate to unusable in relatively short order. I’ll wait to drop Metcalf out of the lock starter conversation one more week, if for no other reason than they face the seventh-worst scoring defense in the league.

You’re playing Metcalf, but I can’t imagine you’re excited about it.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (vs MIN)

Dontayvion Wicks has been on the field for the majority of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in both of his games back in action, but that doesn’t mean he is rosterable.

Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are the two receivers I have hope for, and if I had to pick a third, it would be Matthew Golden over Wicks.

He hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in a game this season, and outside of two instances, his ability to earn targets has been unimpressive.

I’m not against getting cute with Green Bay WRs this week if you believe they really lean into a pass-heavy script sans Josh Jacobs, but I am against doing that by way of Wicks.

Drake London | ATL (at NO)

Drake London has looked unguardable for a month now, and last week was no different.

On the second drive of the game, he had receptions of 30 and 41 yards to set up a Bijan Robinson touchdown, with each play seemingly being more impressive than the one prior.

He’s hit 100 yards before halftime twice this season, and I’ve felt that the Falcons have largely leaned into his matchups when it’s clear that he holds an edge.

Sadly, we won’t be seeing that in the short term after he suffered a PCL sprain against the Panthers. London won’t play this week, and if Brock Bowers/Ricky Pearsall are examples with a similar ailment, we could be looking at an absence that impacts your playoff roster.

The Falcons aren’t going anywhere this season and picked up their club option on their WR1 for next season. I’m not saying that London’s season is over, but it’s not off the table, and savvy fantasy managers will plan for that, understanding that a return will only make your life easier.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at LAR)

Emeka Egbuka is getting all of the usage he could ask for, and that locks him into fantasy lineups, even in a tough matchup with the Rams.

The rookie has earned at least nine targets and an end zone look in four straight, a role that figures to be his for the remainder of the season. I think it’s very possible we see some shootout game environments for the Bucs moving forward, and with No. 2 their clear No. 1, the production should follow, even if the efficiency can leave room for improvement at times.

The backend of the WR1 tier is littered with high-target, marginal efficiency players (Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, and Tetairoa McMillan, to name a few), and that’s where Egbuka belongs. He’s a special talent that is going to be expensive next season: do what you can to make a run this season, understanding that the price you paid in August was a bargain.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at BAL)

News broke in the middle of last week that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out for multiple games upon initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be intriguing.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a 2-8 team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (vs PHI)

George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were benched for the first possession on Monday night, and that could have resulted in a contentious situation that left us with more questions than answers had they dropped a close game against the Raiders.

Fortunately, it was against the Raiders, so that didn’t happen. Pickens became the first receiver this season to clear 130 receiving yards three times, and he looked engaged throughout.

If he’s not the best WR2 in the league, he’s on the very short list, and that makes him a start, even against an Eagles defense that looked to level up on Sunday night. He’s cleared 100 air yards in four of his past five games, and while the quality of target is fair to question in this spot, it does only take one to make him worthy of your WR2 spot, and he has a good chance at making that happen.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs NE)

The lack of judgment to spit on another human being is painful.

The gall to stare into a camera post-game and lie about something that we can all see is on another level.

Ja’Marr Chase will miss this game as a result, and the Bengals’ slim hopes could be dashed in the process. The role has cooled a bit for him (45.8% target share in the first three Joe Flacco starts, 21.4% since), but with multiple red zone targets in five straight games, there’s nothing really to worry about.

The hope is for Joe Burrow to join him on the field next Thursday night in Baltimore in what could be the most fun Thursday night game of the season.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (at ARI)

Jakobi Meyers saw his snap rate spike from 41.8% in his first game with the Jags to 63.8% last weekend against the Chargers, and he had a viable PPR afternoon (five catches for 64 yards on six targets).

We did see just about everything go right for him in that game, so I still need to see more before recommending him as a flex option. Jacksonville dominated from start to finish, punished Los Angeles with the run game, and played again without Brian Thomas Jr. or Brenton Strange.

Time will tell if his teammates come back this week, but I’ll phrase it this way: asking Trevor Lawrence to sustain two pass catchers weekly feels like too big an ask right now. If you want to plant your flag on one of them and earn volume in bulk, maybe you can squeeze out flexible production. But with several moving pieces, I’m avoiding all parts of this passing game if I can for the foreseeable future.

Jalen Coker | CAR (at SF)

Bryce Young has the game of his life, and Jalen Coker posted a 9.1% target share.

The 21-yard grab on the first drive of the second half was good to see, but there simply aren’t enough looks available in Carolina to justify holding onto Coker at this point.

In a given week, he could be their WR2 and fill the eight-target role that Xavier Legette did a week ago, but is that hope worth chasing when the floor is a 9.1% target share from a quarterback that we aren’t 100% sold on as a building block?

Jameson Williams | DET (vs NYG)

In the two games since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, Jameson Williams has six catches for 108 yards and two TDs on first downs (in his first eight games this season: six catches for 123 yards and zero touchdowns in such spots).

The effort to get him involved is there, and that’s all we need. His skill set is going to come with some statistical ups-and-downs; that’s just the way it is, but if the play calls are going to put him in spots to win, I’m comfortable betting on him.

He’s scored in three straight, the one last week coming on a nice route where he was streaking across the middle of the field and leveraged his speed to put the defender in a tough spot.

I like the player and am growing to love the usage. With Sam LaPorta on the shelf, it’s wheels up from a quality and quantity point of view when it comes to targets for Williams: he’s my WR16 this week, ranking ahead of Brown and Pickens, to name a few.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs CAR)

With Ricky Pearsall back, Jauan Jennings didn’t see his role change a ton. He earned six targets, on par with his season rate, and had 11.5 expected fantasy points, also a number that is within the range of predictable given what we’ve seen up to this point.

What I was encouraged by was that, with Brock Purdy under center, Jennings posted his second-best yards per route run figure (2.25) of the season.

This is an offense that will prioritize efficiency, and while that probably rules out much in the way of ceiling games moving forward for Jennings, asking him to score 9-12 PPR points every week is plenty fair.

You have to decide if that profile is a good fit for your roster. He slides into the back-end of my top 30 at the position because I value what I think is a stable role, but if you’re a big underdog, playing Rashid Shaheed over him is logical as you swing for the fences.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at TEN)

I told you a month ago that instead of saying “Jaxon Smith-Njigba is as good as anyone in the game, play him” every week, I’d dig up a goofy stat to showcase his excellence and leave the analysis at that.

If you took only the receptions that JSN has recorded 10+ yards down the field this season, he’d still be a top 20 flex player in total PPR points, ranking ahead of Emeka Egbuka, Justin Jefferson, and Saquon Barkley.

I found it interesting that he was used in a more shallow route last week than in games prior (9.7 aDOT< his second lowest of the season). In theory, Seattle may have done that in an effort to protect Sam Darnold, and while that plan didn’t work, their WR1 still gave us another nice stat line.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (vs BUF)

Two thoughts come to mind when evaluating Jayden Higgins and his fantasy value: role and value.

His role as the WR2 in this offense has become clear. He’s ranked second among Houston receivers in snap share in consecutive weeks and has earned seven looks in both of those wins.

The value math is far less clean. Does the WR2 role in this Texans offense mean anything to us?

I vote no.

Only twice this season, in games with Nico Collins active, has a Houston WR reached 12 PPR points, making the juice not really worth the squeeze. Baker Mayfield threw 28 passes in this matchup last week and was unable to get a receiver to 55 yards, with Tampa Bay instead staying in touch by exposing a struggling Bills run defense.

I’m not confident that the Texans can have similar success on the ground as the Bucs (39 attempts for 202 yards and three scores). Still, I’m not comfortable setting my roster with the assumption that this pass game can sustain three players (Dalton Schultz ranks ahead of the WR2 role in this offense).

Higgins has seen his value rise in a meaningful way over the past two weeks, and that makes him a strong stash. That said, we aren’t at the point where the second receiver in this offense is in the flex conversation.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs MIN)

Jayden Reed underwent foot and clavicle surgeries in the middle of September, and the first half of November was the initial target. Still, without much in the way of confirmation, I’m skeptical that we’ll get a viable version of him any time soon.

Green Bay’s presumed WR1 scored in Week 1 and was injured on a play in Week 2 that was inches from being a score. It’s only a six-target sample, so do with it what you will, but three came 15+ yards downfield (sub 30% rate in each of his first two seasons).

My thought is that the team was aware of what Tucker Kraft could do in the short receiving game, and the speed of Matthew Golden was anything but a secret, thus opening up Reed to expand his route tree a bit. The names have changed a bit with Kraft on IR and Golden banged up, but the general idea remains that there is a relatively clean role for him to assume when ready.

The Packers play the Bears twice in December, matchups that give Reed the potential to crack my top 24 in those impact weeks, should his usage trend in the direction we saw out of the gates.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (at LV)

If we don’t have Barry Bonds in the Hall of Fame because we view his gaudy numbers as superficially inflated, why do we not carry that thought over to fantasy lineup decisions?

No, there are no steroid allegations against Jerry Jeudy … I’m talking about his 6-78-1 stat line in Week 10 against the depleted Jets. In the same way that we try to judge Bonds for his pre-PED numbers, we should aim to do the same for outlier fantasy performances.

In Weeks 1-8, Jeudy was averaging 11.4 expected fantasy points and coming through on 6.0 of them. He’d been a drain of a roster spot, suffering at the hands of a directionless offense that doesn’t threaten defenses in any way.

He went to New York and went off.

In Week 11, he scored 5.1 points with an expectation of 12.4.

We have 10 data points, and nine of them are consistent. I’ll listen to the data in a spot like this as an excuse to do something I already want to do: bench my Browns.

The matchup grades out well, but I’m not sure it really matters from a projections standpoint if I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is at a professional level. An optimistic view of Jeudy would be a top 40 receiver on a week-to-week basis, and that’s not hitting your lineup with any regularity.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at GB)

Justin Jefferson’s struggles and discontent with what is going on in this passing game grab the headlines, but let’s not act like Jordan Addison is having himself a good time.

He’s earning targets, but much like Jefferson, they are largely empty with JJ McCarthy spraying the ball all over the place. Addison has caught five of 18 targets over the past two weeks, and while he bailed you out with the short touchdown against the Bears, this is a thin profile at best.

Now, there was a drop from Addison that was going to be a chunk play at worst and had the potential to turn into a 61-yard score, so he wasn’t far from this write-up having an awfully different spin. That said, he didn’t make the play.

Half of his targets in those two games have come 15+ yards downfield, and I wonder if Kevin O’Connell tries to get his young QB on track with layup targets before asking him to look vertical.

If that’s the case, Jefferson figures to get fed at a high rate, but I’m not sure the same would apply for Addison. This week, he grades as an awfully risky flex play that I’m putting in the same range as Xavier Worthy/Alec Pierce, two boom/bust types who play in the same game this weekend.

Josh Downs | IND (at KC)

The script almost entirely wrote Josh Downs out of the game in Berlin against the Jets, and seeing that happen is scary.

In the win, he saw just two balls thrown his way, but my greater concern is his ranking fifth on this team in routes run.

• Alec Pierce: 36 routes (7 targets)
• Michael Pittman: 35 routes (2 targets)
• Tyler Warren: 32 routes (10 targets)
• Jonathan Taylor: 24 routes (3 targets)
• Downs: 23 routes (2 targets)

Everything equal, I like the slot role that Downs owns (74.3% of his routes this season have come there), but if the run game is dominating and the team isn’t prioritizing the quick passing game, games like this are at risk.

I’m willing to look past this game because he had scored over 11 PPR points in each of the four games prior, but this is a scary occurrence that is worth keeping track of.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (at HOU)

Josh Palmer took advantage of Keon Coleman’s (and Dalton Kincaid’s) absence to tie for the team lead in targets on Sunday against the Bucs.

He finished with 17 receiving yards, sixth most among Bills players.

Week 11 Receiving Profiles

If not last week, a game in which the Bills put 44 points on the board with their top three preseason targets doing anything (two inactive and -3 yards for Khalil Shakir), then when?

You can safely skim right past Palmer when looking at your waiver wire for end-of-roster options.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at GB)

Justin Jefferson has fallen out of my top 10, and it’s not a comfortable feeling, but I need this JJ McCarthy offense to work through its best player before I bank on it.

On the bright side, they are trying. They just haven’t been successful. Jefferson has posted a target share north of 28% in every McCarthy start, but a 51.2% catch rate (66% in Carson Wentz starts) with 54 receiving yards per game is criminal.

Layered into this is an opponent who is familiar with defending him. Who do you think wins this game?

For his career, when beating the Packers, Jefferson averages 24 PPR PPG on the back of 8.8 targets and 111.2 receiving yards. When losing to the NFC North rival, those numbers dip to 7.4 PPR PPG, 7.3 targets, and 39.5 receiving yards.

The risk is too high for me to pay top DFS dollar. That said, his falling in my rankings isn’t close to putting him on the fringe of your lineup. Jefferson was responsible for 54 of McCarthy’s 75 first-half passing yards last week: we just need them to get on, and stay on, the same page for 60 minutes.

Get it together, Minnesota.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (at CIN)

A hamstring injury has resulted in consecutive missed games for Kayshon Boutte, but he’s trending toward a return to action for the AFC East leaders.

I don’t think there’s anything to see here, even as part of what is trending toward being labeled as an elite offense.

Boutte hasn’t reached a 22% target share in any game this season and has seen 51.8% of his PPR fantasy points this season come on touchdown receptions. He, of course, doesn’t have to apologize for his ability to make big plays. Still, with the limited ability to earn targets, he’s too reliant on those plays to justify weekly flex consideration.

It goes without saying that this is a PED matchup: Performance Enhancing Defense. If you’re backed into a corner, Boutte is as good a one-week dart throw as there is, and it’s widely available, though you should make this spot start understanding that it’s a rental situation, not a long-term solution.

Kendrick Bourne | SF (vs CAR)

If you were holding onto Kendrick Bourne because of the injury-prone nature of the San Francisco receiving room, I don’t blame you, but we are done now.

Week 11 WR Usage

• Jauan Jennings: 24 routes, 6 targets
• Ricky Pearsall: 23 routes, 3 targets
• Demarcus Robinson: 13 routes, 2 targets
• Bourne: 3 routes, 0 targets

Brock Purdy is among the most efficient quarterbacks in the game, and that will put Bourne back on my radar should an injury happen ahead of him on the depth chart, but this isn’t the type of player you hold if you don’t have to.

Move on and circle back if need be.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at HOU)

Week 10 was great for Keon Coleman truthers. He had the big fourth quarter in Week 1, but since then, the loss in Miami was …

• His most fantasy points
• His most targets
• His highest aDOT
• His most air yards
• His second-most expected fantasy points

You get the idea. He finally hit, and with the Bills positioned to play three strong offenses in the final four weeks of the fantasy season, the Week 10 breadcrumb had the potential to truly grow into a difference-making situation.

It still does, I suppose, but he didn’t play last week as part of a coach’s decision that stemmed from Coleman being late to a Friday meeting. The 22-year-old receiver is averaging 14.5 yards per catch for his career, and the sporadic nature of his production might just be who he is, but if he is at risk of losing the trust of the coaching staff, then we’ve got larger problems.

There are four teams on a bye this week, and that could put you in a tough spot, but against a strong defense, I’m actively looking for reasons not to flex Coleman in Week 12.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at HOU)

We saw the superhero version of Josh Allen last week, and while that got Buffalo the win, that type of play compromises the value of a player like Khalil Shakir.

I’m not just saying that because he had fewer yards than healthy scratch Keon Coleman. If Allen is scrambling and embracing chaos, a steady receiver operating in the short pass game is looked right past.

If you think what we saw last week is how Allen plays for the rest of this season, you’re out on Shakir. But I don’t. We’ve seen a statistically mature version of the reigning MVP this season, and that has me optimistic that his slot receiver (6+ catches in three straight games before the Week 11 disaster) will rebound.

The Texans allow the ninth most yards per slot completion, and their ability to stuff the run has me thinking that Shakir’s 10 PPR point baseline is something we can assume on Thursday night.

Luther Burden III | CHI (vs PIT)

Things are gradually moving in the right direction for Luther Burden, and there’s a good chance that the development is too slow to really matter for redraft managers. This is exactly the type of player that should be on the end of your bench.

Participation Tracker

• Weeks 1-9: 24.3% snap share, 8.7 routes, 2.1 targets
• Weeks 10-11: 46.7% snap share, 21.0 routes, 4.0 targets

He earned a season-high five targets against the Vikings last week, and the opportunity diet has my attention. Of his 23 targets this season, seven have come 15+ yards downfield, and eight have come at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Roster now, ask questions later. Ben Johnson has shown creativity in the past, making this a low-risk, high-reward investment.

Mack Hollins | NE (at CIN)

He’s interesting.

That’s not the first time that word has been used to describe Mack Hollins, but with over 10 PPR points in three of his past four games, it’s now descriptive of his fantasy stock as we approach the most valuable time of year.

I don’t view him as a stable source of production, but he’s carved out a role in a strong offense, and that is how I like to fill out my roster. The veteran receiver has posted an aDOT north of 15 yards in consecutive games, and with Drake Maye putting his name on the short list of top deep ball throwers in the league, that’s a niche I want access to.

He’s not a top 30 receiver, but he’s available in far too many leagues.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs IND)

Has he lost nickname rights?

Marquise Brown has gone five straight games with under five targets, an impressive feat given the Chiefs’ high PROE in the Andy Reid era. Since the return of Rashee Rice, Brown has been little more than useless, and he’s not even first in line of WRs that I think the Chiefs would want to break out of a slump (Xavier Worthy).

This is the type of player I’d cut for an upward-trending player like Luther Burden or a player with a QB change like Darnell Mooney.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs JAX)

Marvin Harrison posted a target share north of 27% with a touchdown in Weeks 9 and 10, but he underwent surgery on his appendix in the middle of last week and thus was inactive over the weekend.

His status is up in the air for this week, but the trends we saw from him with Jacoby Brissett under center were strong enough to consider him a viable option (low-end WR2, high-end flex). Bona fide WR1s have torched the Jaguars, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Harrison benefits from that weakness.

• Week 2: Ja’Marr Chase scores 36.5 PPR points
• Week 3: Nico Collins scores 22.4 PPR points
• Week 6: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores 30.2 PPR points
• Week 10: Nico Collins scores 22.6 PPR points

No, he’s not in the same zip code as those stars, but there is a sizable gap between him and Arizona’s WR2, so I think there is some value to extract from a trend like that.

Keep tabs on this situation. Ideally, we get him back sooner rather than later, but it is worth noting that his greatest impact could come when you need it most (Week 17 against the Bengals).

Matthew Golden | GB (vs MIN)

A shoulder injury kept Matthew Golden out of action in Week 10, but after practicing in a limited capacity, he returned last week against the Giants.

Sort of.

He ran just 11 routes, fourth among Packer receivers. Earning three targets is an impressive rate, I suppose, but I’m not close to counting on the WR4 on any offense, let alone one that would prefer to pound Josh Jacobs 20+ times if they can.

The craziest part? He cleared 100 air yards. Golden has one role in this offense, and while I certainly hope there’s more to his profile with time, given the draft capital Green Bay spent on him, there isn’t right now.

RELATED: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 12: JK Dobbins, Nick Chubb, Matthew Golden, and Others

Yes, he forced a DPI that resulted in 35 yards he wasn’t credited with, and it set up the Josh Whyle touchdown. That’s great for the Packers and will keep him involved, but isn’t Christian Watson just a better version of him right now?

I don’t ever love betting on a singular skill, and if you’re sharing that trait with a teammate, the math really gets iffy in a hurry. If you have luxury spots on your bench, Golden is a fine hold. He’s the type of player you plug in as a big underdog situation where you’re not expecting much, but if he hits for a 4-125-2 day, you’re in the mix.

Outside of a situation like that or one of sheer desperation, I don’t see the rookie working his way into enough of a role that we ever feel good about flexing him in 2025.

I hope 2026 is different.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at KC)

Two targets on 35 routes?!?

A week has gone by, and I’m still fuming about Michael Pittman’s lack of usage in Week 10 against the Falcons.

It likely cost you the week, and that hurts, but it’s nothing that I’m really worried about in terms of projecting forward. Pittman earned at least one-quarter of the targets in each of the three games prior and is the bailout option that Daniel Jones trusts in times of need.

Through 10 games, Pittman has been targeted 13 times with his QB feeling duress: he’s caught nine of them and scored three times.

This offense is, and will continue to be, centered around Jonathan Taylor, and that caps the ceiling of everyone attached to this passing game, but if there’s one member with a role that presents a floor you can feel good about locking in weekly, it’s Pittman. I’m not sure it’s close.

Michael Wilson | ARI (vs JAX)

We are 12 weeks into the season, and Michael Wilson has the single-highest receiving yardage game of the year.

Yep, certainly had that projected this preseason.

He was the focal point from the jump with Marvin Harrison sidelined, and things really picked up in the third quarter when he had gains of 25 and 34 yards over a three-play stretch. I’m not sure that he’s a top 15 talent in the league or anything like that (in fact, I’m sure he’s not), but we have a decent sample size of Jacoby Brissett finding two targets he is comfortable with and taking the Joe Flacco approach in terms of volume.

• Week 9, Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride: 65.5% of targets (19 targets)
• Week 10, Harrison + McBride: 56.8% of targets (25 targets)
• Week 11, Wilson + McBride: 51.7% of targets (29 targets)

McBride deserves to be labeled as the primary target, but this offense, as long as Brissett heads it, has made it clear that their WR1 is worthy of our trust in terms of opportunities.

You could dial back Wilson’s efficiency from last week (15 catches on 18 targets) and chop his volume in half and still have a pretty fine flex play. The Jags own the second-highest opponent aDOT this season, and that opens up the door for a few chunk plays that could land Wilson as a top 15 receiver this week.

I’m a little more reserved than that (WR23), but I don’t think last week was a flash in the pan as long as he’s holding the WR1 role in this offense.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs BUF)

Just like we all thought, Nico Collins was a Davis Mills addition away from putting up the numbers we thought possible this summer.

Receiving Leaders From Mills This Season

• Collins: 294
• Dalton Schultz: 132
• Jayden Higgins: 101
• Xavier Hutchinson: 66

He toyed with spreading the ball around in the first half last week in Tennessee (130 passing yards, and four of his targets had 20-32 receiving yards) before opting for the game-theory optimal strategy of throwing to the big athlete no one can cover.

Smart man.

Collins is back inside my top 10 at the position this week. The Bills struggle against the run, not the pass, but if those struggles force them to crowd the line of scrimmage, good luck preventing a slate-breaking play on the perimeter.

Parker Washington | JAX (at ARI)

Parker Washington was battling a hamstring injury last week and was hardly needed in Jacksonville’s demolition of the Chargers on Sunday.

This is more of a strategy take than a player one, but why were you banking on Washington?

It was because of a few spike games, but without real evidence that he is any more of a target earner than those surrounding him, the floor was always going to be crippling in this Trevor Lawrence-led offense.

In Week 11, Jakobi Meyers. Tim Patrick, Johnny Mundt, and Quintin Morris all earned more targets than Washington. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. We know this offense isn’t exactly a high-flying attack, and the quarterback position is in question. I’m not interested in any Jaguar pass-catchers right now, with the target distribution seemingly random and target quality an issue.

Oh, and that was a game in which both Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange were inactive.

Chasing targets in Jacksonville feels like a fool’s errand at this point, and I’m not seriously considering any of their secondary pieces.

Puka Nacua | LAR (vs TB)

Puka Nacua is so inevitable that a 7-75-0 game on eight targets against one of the best defenses in the NFL feels like a letdown.

Los Angeles’ star has caught 83.9% of his targets this season and has had at least seven looks in seven of nine games (14+ expected points in all seven of those contests). In a huge game, the Rams elected to hand the ball to Nacua multiple times for the first time this year, further proof that they want him dictating their outcome every single week.

Is it ideal that he has just two end zone targets this season? It’s not, but Nacua’s profile and skill set are immune to a usage wart like that, something that could sink other top 15 receivers.

You’re getting a solid return on your investment this year, and he’ll be a first-round pick this summer as we look ahead to 2026.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs IND)

Rashee Rice is a great player in an elite role. He has the trust of his future Hall of Fame quarterback (26 catches on 35 targets in his four games back) and is as good as it gets once the ball is in his hands (6+ yards per catch after the reception in three straight).

The Chiefs are struggling on the results front, and it hasn’t affected their WR1. Imagine what can happen now that they are in desperation mode.

Rice has nine red zone touches and has been targeted on half of his routes inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He’s the closest thing this offense has to a “run” game and is being prioritized by the game’s greatest offensive minds.

I’ve got him as my WR5 this week, and I wouldn’t dismiss the idea of him producing at a Tier 1 level for the remainder of the season.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (at TEN)

Sam Darnold undershot Rashid Shaheed by half a step on what could have been a 25-yard touchdown in the third quarter last week, and it feels like the breakout is more of a matter of when, not if.

The pace of play is a natural concern for a player coming from a turbo-charged (inefficient) offense to one of the slower units in the league, and there’s a learning curve to assume. The Seahawks didn’t bring in Shaheed to win games in November; they want him to make an impact as the weather turns.

We know that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to earn a ton of volume in a low-volume offense. That means that, for a WR2 to carve out a viable role in our world, he needs to own a great connection with Darnold.

I think we get there, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach. Could the fast track in Atlanta (Week 14) be the breakout spot? Maybe a spot against the Colts the following week, where this offense presumably has to keep up with one of the most efficient units in the league?

We are going to have some interesting conversations as time goes on, but we aren’t there yet. Shaheed sits outside of my top 35 this weekend, and I’ll save the DFS bullet for another day.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs NYJ)

Rashod Bateman was never close to giving it a go last weekend against the Browns with an ankle sprain and hasn’t been nearly productive enough to justify being rostered as he works through this injury.

His yards per route (0.89) and air yards per game (44.7) are easily pacing for career lows, trends I don’t see reversing any time soon. Zay Flowers looks the part of a WR1, and with a pair of viable tight ends, there’s simply not enough volume to chase for a player that has yet to really prove capable of doing so.

The Bateman role isn’t worth chasing, either. You can find week-to-week upside that far exceeds what you’re wise to expect from the fourth option in this run-oriented offense.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs CAR)

The 49ers didn’t hesitate to reintroduce Ricky Pearsall (knee) into the mix as he played 38 snaps, good for a 73.1% share that matched Jauan Jennings for the WR lead.

One catch for zero yards probably isn’t what you had in mind, given that run out, but after nearly two months off with a QB who was just returning from an injury of his own, it wasn’t exactly optimal.

My concern is less with Pearsall (he did earn an end zone target, so that’s a start) and more with the idea of him. Where are the consistent targets going to come from?

Jennings is a reasonable target earner, and we know that the Christian McCaffrey/George Kittle tandem is going to vacuum in looks in bulk. Pearsall’s speed is a valuable asset to this uber-efficient offense, though asking him to be a consistent fantasy asset is a bit too much.

We are looking at a player who will see 5-7 targets most weeks, with half of them coming down the field. There is upside in a role like that, but more often than not, his median projection isn’t going to rank inside of my top 30.

On the surface, this matchup doesn’t scare me, but offenses don’t often have to rely on the big play to move the ball against Carolina (39.7% deep throw completion rate, eighth lowest in the NFL).

Rome Odunze | CHI (vs PIT)

Rome Odunze came blazing out of the gates this season with five scores in September, resulting in four straight top-20 finishes at the position, and “Ben Johnson is a magician” talks reaching a fever pitch.

Times have been a little tougher since. After that first month, he had just two top 50 weeks and one touchdown. The efficiency has fallen off a cliff in November (eight catches on 19 targets) due to a vertical role that sees him running almost exclusively deep routes.

Against Minnesota last week, his aDOT (23.3) and percentage of looks that came 15+ yards downfield (83.3%) were both season highs. He’s cleared 135 air yards in three of his past four games, and while this is great for ceiling games, it also introduces the type of low floor we’ve seen over the past two months.

So what do we do now?

I think we rank him as a middling WR2 with the knowledge that we will adjust based on the matchup. Home games stand to be tricky for the Bears this time of year, but given the role change and the fact that the Steelers are the seventh-worst YPA defense on deep throws, I’m comfortable giving Odunze a bounce-back look in DFS and ranking him as a top 15 option at the position.

I think the days of consistent high-end production are gone, though I have a similar ceiling projection for him today as I did one and two months ago.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs MIN)

Sunday was far from a banner day for Romeo Doubs.

He made a few plays to approach 10 PPR points, but he could have been flirting with 100 receiving yards if not for two of the worst drops you’ll see from him.

Usually, I don’t mind drops from a projection standpoint. They are hard to watch, but it happens when you’re getting targeted in bulk (8+ targets in five of his past seven games).

In this instance, however, I put a little more weight into it because Green Bay’s target hierarchy is a little more vibes-based than most. With Christian Watson looking like a full go and Matthew Golden back, Jordan Love isn’t tied to a bona fide star WR1, and that introduces usage risk should he lose confidence in any one player.

I don’t think that’s happened in the case of Doubs, but we are closer to that being a concern today than we were a week ago.

I have both him and Watson ranked as sound flex plays against a Vikings team that is taking on water since the bye (1-4 record with the lone win somehow coming at Detroit). The iffy nature of Josh Jacobs (knee) this week puts more responsibilities on this passing game, and Doubs remains at the front of the line in terms of target earners on this unit.

Stefon Diggs | NE (at CIN)

There is plenty of target variance in New England these days, but it’s all a race for the WR2 role behind Stefon Diggs.

The veteran receiver has cleared 10 PPR points in five straight games, and it’s not by accident: he’s reached at least 11.5 expected points in four of those contests. The scoring upside isn’t what you’d hope for when attached to a unit like this (two end zone targets and a 23.8% red zone target rate), but with his slot percentage spiking, I’m buying the steady PPR floor moving forward.

• Weeks 1-8: 43.1% of routes came when lined up in the slot
• Weeks 9-11: 59.2% of routes came when lined up in the slot

He caught three of Drake Maye’s five passes on the first drive, further proof that this offense wants to funnel their aerial attack through the consistency of their WR1. I don’t think we get another explosion game from Diggs moving forward, but counting on him for consistent WR2 value is something I’m very comfortable doing.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs NE)

We saw Tee Higgins score on Cincinnati’s first drive last weekend, and if they are going to keep this thing tight, as 8.5-point home underdogs, he’ll have to produce early and often.

Thus far, he’s scored on 22.7% of his Joe Flacco receptions, a rate more than double his career mark (10.5%) and unsustainable. This week, however, we won’t be asking it to sustain, as he figures to be loaded up with as many targets as he can handle due to the Ja’Marr Chase suspension.

The New England defense is tough, but good offenses can beat good defenses in today’s NFL, and that is why I’ve got Cincy’s now clear-cut WR1 ranked as a top 10 play at the position this week. There’s always risk in taking on an elite unit like this, but since Week 6, we’ve seen Chris Olave, Drake London, and Emeka Egbuka all leverage their athletic tools to score above their season average against the Pats.

It may not be the prettiest of performances, but I like Higgins to see double-digit targets from an accurate QB in an aggressive script: I’ll take my chances.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (at SF)

This Carolina offense scored 30 points against the Falcons for the second time this season, and everything positive worked through Tetairoa McMillan, their WR1 of the present and future.

The rookie cleared 100 yards for the first time and scored multiple touchdowns for the second time with a career-high 128 yards as a nice bonus. He’s now averaged at least two yards per route run in four straight and has quietly been a very efficient player on third downs (six catches on eight targets in November).

Rookie receivers since 2000 with at least 8 receptions, 130 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in a game:

– Tetairoa McMillan
– Justin Jefferson
– Ja’Marr Chase
– Odell Beckham Jr.
– Anquan Boldin
– Roy Williams pic.twitter.com/fUysMzavHj

— Michael Bell (@avl_mike) November 19, 2025

The 49ers were picked apart by Michael Wilson last week, albeit in a one-sided game, and that was the fourth time in six weeks that the receiver leading his team in fantasy points more than doubled his season average in this matchup.

McMillan scored on the Panthers’ first drive last week, and I expect him to be weighed down with all of the usage he can handle for a team that is somehow just 1.5 games behind the three-seed Bears in a crowded middle tier of the NFC.

Tory Horton | SEA (at TEN)

Tory Horton has now missed both games since the Rashid Shaheed trade, and given that Mike Macdonald introduced Injured Reserve into the conversation, I think we can safely cut ties with the rookie in all redraft formats.

The Seahawks are in it to win it in 202,5, and while Horton has had his moments, it’s clear that they are treating him more like a developmental piece.

With Cooper Kupp clearly on the wrong portion of the age curve and Shaheed a UFA after this season, Horton’s name is likely to come up in sleeper conversations for next year. Use his remaining routes this season to scout and determine your future intrigue: his utility this season is gone.

Travis Hunter | JAX (at ARI)

Three weeks ago, news emerged that a knee injury had landed the talented rookie on IR, and we got news on Tuesday that the dual threat’s season is over.

Weekly Participation Report

• Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
• Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
• Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
• Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
• Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
• Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
• Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps

This will be a situation to watch as the offseason comes into focus. Not for the health; everything on that end seems like it’ll be fine, but for reports coming out of Jacksonville about how they felt this season went.

Does the injury force their hand in picking a side of the ball to focus on? What does the WR room look like?

This partial rookie season has me with more questions than answers, but the asking price won’t be nearly what it was this August.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at DET)

It was good to see Wan’Dale Robinson haul in Jameis Winston’s first pass of the season (20-yard gain), but he managed to turn eight targets into just 16 yards after that chunk play, giving us the 7.5-13.6 PPR points that have been customary for over a month now.

There’s nothing fun about playing him, but this is an offense that is low on better options and high in potential pass volume as a huge underdog this week.

Robinson is sitting as my WR23 this week, not because I think he has the 23rd-best odds of leading the position in scoring, but more because there aren’t 30 receivers I trust more to flirt with 10 points.

That’s a distinction that I think is worth highlighting. If you’re playing a powerhouse in your league and grasping for straws, playing New York’s slot machine is setting yourself up for failure. You’re better off with Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, or Tez Johnson.

But if you are the powerhouse, Robinson should be in your mix weekly, as he can steady the ship and let your stars do the heavy lifting.

Xavier Legette | CAR (at SF)

Xavier Legette, posting two top 15 PPR finishes this season, will be among the random notes that we forget about, but it’s a real thing. He’s caught more than three passes twice this season, and he just so happened to clear 18 PPR points in both of them.

If you think Bryce Young will sustain the momentum from last week and be midseason Joe Flacco, then by all means, play Legette as a WR2.

If you’re a rational human who operates with a broad sense of logic, I think we can take a step back and admit that he simply ran hot. Gabe Davis used to do this once a month, and we were never willing to trust him, despite his better offenses, right?

Carolina remains a run-centric offense that wants to put as much of their passing game in the hands of Tetairoa McMillan as possible. Let’s not overcomplicate things.

The 21-yard catch on fourth down during the first drive was nice, and the 36-yard TD to open the second half was even better. Maybe there is something to be said about scheming him looks, but until we see sustained viability, I’m not tempted to put him inside of my top 40 at the position.

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs IND)

This is going to sound harsh, and that’s probably because it is: Was September the most useful month from Xavier Worthy this season?

He burned you in Week 1 when he was hurt after three plays, missed two games, and came back in Week 4 with 121 total yards and 17.1 PPR points.

So he was a drain on your roster in three of four weeks … and that was the peak of his season?

He killed you once. Weeks 2-3 were a pain, but you got replacement-level value because you knew he was inactive.

Since then, he’s been a mess, and you’ve likely tried to work through it by playing him. Week 6 was the last time he was a top-35 receiver, and he really does profile as a misfit toy in this offense.

Tyquan Thornton has assumed the vertical route while the Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce tandem has, as assumed, eaten up all of the short-to-mid-range targets.

So, where does Worthy win in this system?

He has no more than 35 receiving yards in four of his past five games, has scored once on 45 targets, and is averaging just 10.4 yards per catch. The per catch number wouldn’t bother me if we could pencil in consistent volume, but we can’t (27 targets over his past five games).

How different is he than Mack Hollins right now? Heck, Hollins is at least on an upward trajectory role-wise and gets the Bengals this week. They are ranked in the same tier for me this week, and that’s outside of my circle of lineup trust.

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs NYJ)

Zay Flowers doesn’t get the hype of other WR1s because of how the Baltimore offense is structured, but the fact that he has 10 more catches than any of his teammates with targets this season makes him a weekly lineup lock.

He’s been handed the ball once in three of his past four games and has cleared 60 receiving yards eight times this season, a mark that has only been topped by Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10).

The odds of Flowers winning you any given week are small. This is a great matchup, but if the Ravens have their way, they’ll run the ball 35 times for 200 yards and three scores. That said, I trust him more than most receivers to not sink me, and that holds value.

Give me Flowers as a top 20 receiver this week, over players like Tee Higgins, George Pickens, and Michael Pittman, all of whom find themselves in much more difficult matchups.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (at TEN)

Week 11 was great if you landed on AJ Barner out of some misfortune (10 catches for 70 yards against the Rams), but this is lining up very much to be a “don’t make one mistake two” situation.

You (likely) missed on the big week. That’s in the past now. His target share before the high-volume effort was 11.9%, a rate that is obviously not enough to get the job done, and with three receivers running over 30 routes last week, this profile is thin at best.

Barner has posted a sub-five-yard aDOT in four straight, making him, at best, a decent floor play over someone who hits 17 PPR points again. He’s sitting outside of my top 15 at the position this week, and I feel good about it.

Brenton Strange | JAX (at ARI)

Brenton Strange is within his 21-day window for return from the hip injury that landed him on IR, but it was a bit of a surprise to see him ruled out last week against the Chargers.

He’s a name to track, not roster.

Strange had a pair of six-catch efforts before getting hurt in Week 5, and while this offense looks considerably different now than it did then, we are still looking at a unit with limitations.

The addition of Meyers, combined with Parker Washington’s breakout, makes this a competitive situation for those chain-moving targets. I don’t have Strange ranked among the top 12 options at the position. Still, it’s another name on the heap of streamable tight ends, and successful fantasy managers always take that seriously if they are turning over the position consistently.

Jacksonville travels to Tennessee next week, and that means they will have a strong implied total. Strange is on the outside looking in at rosterable in standard-sized leagues … for now.

Brock Bowers | LV (vs CLE)

Brock Bowers has seen his snap rate increase each week since his return, and there’s not much space to improve upon the 96.6% he logged on Monday night against the Cowboys.

When great players are on the field for essentially every snap in a limited offense, they are going to be fed and fed often. The efficiency may come and go depending on the defense’s attention, but over 60 minutes, his value as a top-5 player at the position checks in as stable.

Last week, he earned a dozen targets, cleared 100 air yards for the first time this season, and saw his fourth end zone target in his three games since returning. The struggles of Geno Smith are going to make it hard for Bowers to produce at the Trey McBride level the rest of the way. Still, he’s firmly in the next tier at the position: that’s not going to return value on the price you paid this summer, but it’s also not going to sink your team during the postseason.

Brock Wright | DET (vs NYG)

Brock Wright’s two-catch eight-yard performance from last week probably doesn’t have him popping off the waiver wire at you, but he did earn seven targets and was on the field for 81.7% of Detroit’s offensive snaps in a very one-sided 16-9 loss.

If Wright were an elite athlete in space, we’d know by now, in his fifth season. That said, he essentially filled the full Sam LaPorta (IR) role, and while the opponent this week shares a division with last week’s, it’s not at all the same.

I don’t have Wright ranked as a top 15 tight end this week and need to see it before getting him to the streaming tier, but I’m not crossing him off of the list of potential options as we approach the stretch run.

Cade Otton | TB (at LAR)

Cade Otton is fall in the Northeast.

Temperature-wise, you know what you’re getting. We are going to be in this 35-50 degree range for a while with not a ton of variance. You might notice some nice foliage on a drive to work one day or be annoyed by snow flurries, but you know what you’re signed up.

Last week, we got flurries from Otton (two catches for 28 yards), one week after getting a beautiful view (nine for 82). You know this is part of the deal, but it doesn’t change your basic assumption for what the weather is going to be.

In this case, 8-12 PPR points is 35-50 degree weather. That assumption will change if this offense gets healthy faster than expected, but until then, Otton is a boring TE who hovers around 10th in the rankings every single week, with the understanding that his role is his value. That consistent routes are worth more at this position than they are at others.

I can’t remember the last time I was excited about plugging in Otton, but I also can’t remember the last time he failed in consecutive weeks when the offense was missing pieces.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs SEA)

We’ve seen Chig Okonkwo catch 32 of 42 targets this season (nine of 10 over the past month), something that would generally have me excited when coming from a developmental quarterback. Still, there just isn’t a shred of upside to chase, and that’s why he’s at the very low end of streamable options for me, even with the Calvin Ridley injury.

For the season, Okonkwo has a 5.5-yard aDOT and zero end zone targets. In fact. 71.4% of his looks this season have come on the wrong half of the field. It’s not that he’s running badly on variance in terms of scoring chances; it’s that he plays for a bad team, and that’s not going to change.

Seattle hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game since Week 5, so no, I don’t think this is the week that Cam Ward puts it all together.

Cole Kmet | CHI (vs PIT)

Cole Kmet is playing just enough to annoy managers with Colston Loveland managers without being of interest to those streaming the position.

Both Bear tight ends played over 75% of the snaps last week as Ben Johnson is leaning into these two-TE sets. Still, I really do think a lot of it is window dressing, and with Caleb Williams not exactly showcasing consistency as a thrower week-to-week, this isn’t a spot I’m at all interested in.

Kmet has yet to reach 50 receiving yards in a game this season and hasn’t found the end zone in six straight games. His aDOT is plummeting, and the problem is that the rookie will absorb most of the team’s positional targets. His slot usage in Week 11 was his second-lowest of the season (8.8% of his routes).

I’m not confident that this offense can support pass catchers every week, and I have Kmet ranked as the fourth option at best.

Colston Loveland | CHI (vs PIT)

We saw some of the YAC skills from Colston Loveland last week on a 24-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter, and little breadcrumbs like that are why I’m ranking him as a top 10 option at the position both this week and the rest of the way.

He got the red zone usage on Sunday over Cole Kmet and has now seen an end zone pass thrown his way in three of four games. The combination of TD equity (this offense can be all over the place, but if we are talking about putting his profile up against Theo Johnson, Juwan Johnson, and Harold Fannin types, I’m happy to embrace the upside.

Loveland has averaged over 1.4 yards per route in four of his past five games, and I only expect the route count to increase as a surprise playoff berth for Chicago transitions from pipe dream to attainable goal.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at DAL)

I’m not saying that Dallas Goedert needs to be dumped, but the only reason I’m saying that is because the tight end position is an unmitigated disaster after the first half dozen options.

He has no more than four catches or 43 receiving yards during this four-game win streak, statistical evidence that tells what we kind of already knew: he’s not overly critical to the success of this team.

That’s not to say that he can’t have big games; he can, and that’s why he’s a high-end streamer for me that I have ranked as TE10 in this perfect spot against a Dallas defense on short rest. Still, the profile is trending in the wrong direction, and there’s no obvious reason for Philadelphia to prioritize reversing it.

Goedert has seen his aDOT increase in each game during this run, and considering that Jalen Hurts is having a hard enough time keeping A.J. Brown happy down the field, forgive me if I’m not overly optimistic on the future target share of his tight end.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at HOU)

A hamstring injury suffered in Week 10 left Dalton Kincaid labeled as “week-to-week” in the middle of last week, making the DNP nothing but a surprise.

I’d say that Buffalo’s lead tight end is a complicated player to rank, but he’s really not any different than all of the other pass catchers not named Khalil Shakir on this team.

He was a top 10 tight end in three of the first five weeks, finishing no worse than TE18 in any of those weeks. Since he’s been better than TE25 just once, it just so happened to be a TE3 finish against the Chiefs in Week 9.

No big deal. He might win you your week, steady the ship, or sink you completely.

Kincaid has as many touchdowns in eight games this season as he had in the first 29 of his career, but that doesn’t mean he’s a safe option. Once you get outside of the top two tiers at the position, the range of outcomes for all of these tight ends is dramatic, so the fact that he plays for an offense that I view as a top-5 unit in the league lands him as a low-end TE1 for me more often than not.

This is a tough matchup, but so was Kansas City at the beginning of the month, and he finished with a 6-101-1 stat line. If he suits up, I think you’re OK to follow suit. Due to the offense he plays on, Kincaid is a tick about the streaming tier, though it’s not by much, and if we are getting a compromised version of him, he’ll fall outside of my top 12 by the time this week kicks off.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs BUF)

Dalton Schultz continues to fight off a shoulder injury and churn out productive fantasy weeks.

If this profile (limited TD equity and only a sliver of big play upside) were presented as a receiver, it wouldn’t catch my eye. Still, this role at the tight end position makes him a lineup lock that inspires confidence that you won’t lose the week because of an airball.

Since the middle of October, Schultz’s 17-game pace is 102 receptions, and he’s the pretty clear second option behind Nico Collins. Jayden Higgins is making some noise role-wise, but until I see the tight end’s role suffer, I’ll assume it’s safe.

With 28 targets in November, Houston’s struggle bus of an offense has one of the most reliable producers at an impossible position (his yards per route run are up 51% from last season).

David Njoku | CLE (at LV)

Both Harold Fannin and David Njoku were on the field for at least two-thirds of Cleveland’s offensive snaps on Sunday against Baltimore as this team tries to cover its lack of receiver depth with an increase in 12-personnel reps.

In points-per-route leagues, Njoku is fine to hold, but with him being held under 40 receiving yards in four straight, it’s hard to spin this profile as an encouraging one.

The Browns aren’t going anywhere, and Fannin is the tight end they stand to learn more about moving forward than Njoku.

I got to TE18 in my rankings this week before his name even entered the conversation.

Dawson Knox | BUF (at HOU)

There was no question as to who Buffalo tagged as their Dalton Kincaid replacement, as Dawson Knox more than doubled the snaps of Jackson Hawes and finished with as many targets as the backup had routes.

That’s not the issue.

With Keon Coleman out (discipline) and Khalil Shakir ineffective, Knox didn’t record a first-half catch and pulled in his only look after the break.

This is a tough matchup, where I do expect him to be on the field plenty again, but I’d rather bet on more traditional pocket-passing offenses to fill my TE streamer role (AJ Barner, Noah Fant, or even Brock Wright).

George Kittle | SF (vs CAR)

Remember when he came back from injury and didn’t see a target for an entire Monday Night Football game?

That feels like forever ago now, as George Kittle has caught all 19 of his targets over the past three weeks and is a key cog in an offense back under the leadership of Brock Purdy, arguably the most efficient passer in our game.

I don’t love that his aDOT has dropped 29.2% and his YAC has somehow been more than chopped in half from last season, but this is an elite player in a system I trust at a position that is a pain.

Don’t overthink it: Kittle is a strong option the rest of the way and could swing your matchup in the final game of Week 12.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (at LV)

I’d prefer that the Browns eliminate David Njoku’s routes, but these two-tight-end sets seem to be what the Browns want to run due to the youth under center, and that’s capping the ability of Harold Fannin to breakout.

His 7.2-aDOT last week was his second-highest of the season, and I think Cleveland is wise to experiment with what this athletic and nimble third-round pick can do. Fannin has proven capable of earning targets, and that’s enough to put him in the streamer conversation against a bad defense on short rest, but those looks lack consistency because of the arm they are coming from.

I prefer him to David Njoku moving forward, though the presence of one makes the other tough to rank inside of my top 15 at the position any given week, and this one is no different.

Hunter Henry | NE (at CIN)

Hunter Henry is running 27.5 routes per game this season and has cleared that number in three straight. In theory, the role is there as a part of a strong offense, but with just one end zone target over his past six and six games under 40 receiving yards, the range of outcomes is working in his favor in standard-sized leagues.

That said, we did see a nice 24-yard chunk play on Thursday night where Drake Maye sold the play fake hard and showed nice touch over the top on the pass. Any semblance of downfield upside with an extended work week ahead of a matchup against the porous Bengals is worthy of our attention.

I like Henry as a streamer this week, but I’ve got it labeled as more of a matchup play than a role I’m truly interested in for the remainder of the season.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs NYJ)

This is about as even a split as you can have, and considering that most offenses lacking a Tier 1 tight end struggle to get the position as a whole enough volume to matter, dividing that pie in half is less than ideal.

You know what this is? This is Kansas City’s backfield from earlier in the season.

Isaiah Likely is Isiah Pacheco, the player who projects better but is underused, and Mark Andrews is Kareem Hunt, the more experienced player whose savvy is trusted in scoring situations, even if the upside is capped for the first 80 yards of the drive.

We couldn’t trust Pacheco or Hunt when Andy Reid was working his dark magic with them, and I don’t think we can realistically trust Likely or Andrews right now, even if both are still valuable to the offense as a whole.

I prefer Andrews to Likely for now, but that’s just because we are splitting limited targets, and a touchdown swings the scales in a major way.

Neither is a top 12 play for me this week, even in a plus matchup against the undermanned Jets.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (at SF)

Young goes bonkers, and his tight end finishes with under 35 receiving yards for the sixth straight game.

Not ideal.

Ja’Tavion Sanders hasn’t seen an end zone target in a month, and it’s been two full months since he’s cleared 20 air yards in a contest. I don’t think the Xavier Legette production from last week is real, but I’m also not positive that any dialing back of his numbers puts more usage on the plate of Sanders.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs PHI)

Jake Ferguson snapped a two-game (three-week) scoring slump that felt like an eternity to his fantasy managers, who had come to expect a touchdown a week (six scores in the four weeks prior).

The yardage totals since CeeDee Lamb returned haven’t been there (no more than 50 yards in seven straight), but that’s more of a yards per catch issue. He caught four balls in Monday night’s easy win over the Raiders, the eighth time he’s reached that mark this season as he plays a PPR-friendly role in this potent offense that comes with plenty of scoring equity.

He may not be a Tier 1 tight end like he was early in the season, but that’s more of a “Trey McBride is on another planet” thing. Once you get past Arizona’s star, Ferguson remains as valuable as any TE on the board, and I don’t think that changes, even in a tough spot against the Eagles (5-23-0 line in Week 1 in Philadelphia).

Jonnu Smith | PIT (at CHI)

Shame on you if you’re scanning the waiver wire and Jonnu Smith’s name still catches your eye.

Week 11: Steeler TE Participation 

• Darnell Washington: 44 snaps, 20 routes, 5 targets
• Smith: 33 snaps, 18 routes, 2 targets
• Pat Freiermuth: 27 snaps, 14 routes, 1 target

If that’s the case, and the same goes for Freiermuth, it’s simply because you’re familiar with the name.

Shake that off and trim these two off your list of streamable options, regardless of who is under center in Pittsburgh. Smith hasn’t reached 30 receiving yards in a contest this season, and with him averaging just 6.3 yards per grab, the athletic profile that seemed to connect all the dots last season in Miami clearly isn’t at work this year.

Juwan Johnson | NO (vs ATL)

In Weeks 9-10, Juwan Johnson showed off a nice connection with Tyler Shough, and with a passing script forecasted and a limited number of mouths to feed, what’s to stop us from considering him a viable low-end TE1 for the rest of the way?

He turned 40 routes into seven catches, 123 yards, and a pair of scores over those two games (road contests against the Rams and Panthers). If he continues to get one target for every five routes, he’s going to be a PPR asset by way of efficiency, but the touchdown equity was good to see.

Without scores, I think he can still flirt with enough production to justify starting him, and if the scoring streak can sustain, we are looking at a nice DFS piece in a spot where few are looking.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at NO)

Kyle Pitts didn’t see a target in the first half last week and, for the second time this season and second time in as many weeks, finished with just two catches.

The role remains the same, but four catches on 56 routes over the past weeks is a disaster, and there’s no sugarcoating it.

In Week 11, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson accounted for 72.4% of Falcon targets. If we see that again this week, Pitts moves to the streamer conversation, but I’m willing to leave the light on for one more week.

Not only is this a good matchup that should allow Atlanta to score, but Kirk Cousins will be under center after Michael Penix’s knee injury, and the veteran QB funnelled 28.6% of his end-zone looks to Pitts a season ago.

Can Cousins still play when given time to prep?

I’m not sold, but at a position where touchdowns drive weekly value and in a weatherproof game, I’ll take my chances. Pitts is currently my TE11 for Week 12.

Luke Musgrave | GB (vs MIN)

Luke Musgrave’s snap share fell off a cliff in his second week of fill-in duty for Tucker Kraft (35.3% from 77.3% in Week 10), and he didn’t exactly show well for himself when the Packers ran him out there.

Against the Giants, he earned two targets: one went for a one-yard loss, and the other was a drop that looked a lot like a lost fumble when watching it live.

He gets the benefit from a lack of other options, and the Josh Jacobs injury figures to put more pressure on this passing game.

Nothing Musgrave has done up to this point deserves our faith, and that’s why he’s not a top-15 option for me, but the situation alone is keeping him on my radar. Green Bay still has both games against the Bears left on the schedule, not to mention potential shootouts with the Lions (Thanksgiving) and the Ravens (Week 17).

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs NYJ)

It was great to see Mark Andrews get his flowers after he became Baltimore’s franchise leader in receiving yards, and his winning the game with Tush Push spinning sweep was pure art.

If you haven’t seen the play, go check it out: I’ll be here when you get back.

I hope Mark Andrews is having a lovely Wednesday pic.twitter.com/bREHzS7sOm

— ????????????’????????????????????✰ (@Lust4Minaj) November 19, 2025

The fact that Todd Monken schemed that play up is encouraging: he very much values what Andrews brings to the table, even if it’s more limited than it was in years past.

Isaiah Likely has greater upside, but the Ravens are content to hit singles at the position, and that resulted in Andrews owning a usage edge last week (36=32 in snaps and 21-19 in routes).

He needs a touchdown to justify you playing him, but with Baltimore projecting for 29 points, this is as good a spot as any to chase the score.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (at BAL)

If the Jets can figure out their passing game, the athletic profile of Mason Taylor is interesting, but until then, you can find more projectable upside elsewhere.

Even with Garrett Wilson (IR) out on Thursday night against the Patriots, Taylor wasn’t able to earn targets in a meaningful way. In the loss, five different Jets saw 3+ passes thrown their way, and with the quality of opportunity limited in this Justin Fields-led offense, that’s not nearly enough.

I was encouraged to see Taylor see the first target of the game, and maybe there’s a single performance that hits the top 12 moving forward, but I’m never going to get there from a projection standpoint, given the state of this offense as a whole.

Michael Mayer | LV (vs CLE)

Michael Mayer’s role as the unique TE handcuff is interesting during the middle portion of the season, but as we prepare for the stretch run, it becomes far less appealing.

The Raiders have kept him involved since the return of Brock Bowers (15 targets across those three games), but he’s not getting anything valuable in terms of downfield or red zone work, and that makes him unrosterable.

He teamed with Bowers to power the Tre Tucker touchdown on Monday night: he holds value to his NFL team, just not in our stat-based world.

Noah Fant | CIN (vs NE)

Noah Fant has hauled in 30 of his 34 targets this season, adding a role that is more valuable to the Bengals than to fantasy managers.

Of those looks, only three have come in the end zone and two deep down the field. I’m not sold that the quality outweighs the lack of quantity in this specific instance, especially with Chase Brown beginning to ascend.

All of the scoring upside resides with three players in Cincinnati, and I don’t expect that to change when Joe Burrow returns (eyeing next week). Fant is on the streaming radar thanks to this offense having upside and a matchup against a defense that figures to make them even more one-dimensional than usual, but he’s far from a must-play.

If I’m rostering TreVeyon Henderson in DFS and looking for a cheap bring-back to counteract the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins chalk, I could be sold on Fant as a way of filling the annoying TE slot. Outside of that, I’m not too tempted to challenge the Patriots.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at CHI)

Pat Freiermuth’s efficiency looks good on paper (16 catches on 19 targets since the beginning of October). Still, the fact that his success when targeted hasn’t resulted in any role change should tell you all you need to know about the former Nittany Lion.

This TE room is a three-way split of a piece of pie that I’m not sure is large enough to feed one. I wasn’t the least bit interested in any member of this unit with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and with that no longer the case, I really can’t see the point in throwing darts at this position group.

Sam LaPorta | DET (vs NYG)

We got word on Saturday that the Lions were placing Sam LaPorta (back) on injured reserve, a designation that means he won’t be eligible to play again until Week 15 in Los Angeles against the Rams.

Roster spots are valuable this time of year, but I’m trying to hold tight if at all possible. J.K. Dobbins was the other impactful player to land on IR ahead of Week 11, and if I only had one IR slot to burn, I’d prefer to use it on Detroit’s TE.

Not only does he have five top-10 finishes at the position, but there’s not a real threat to assume his role, thus putting him in a spot to be a lineup lock barring news that this injury is more prohibitive than first let on.

He caught all five of his targets (53 yards) in the Week 10 win in Washington, Dan Campbell’s first as the playcaller, and I’m comfortable in penciling him in for 10+ PPR points consistently as a key cog of this offense when next active.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at GB)

Are we done here?

I know you’re tied to the draft capital you spent on T.J. Hockenson back in August, but we’ve seen no signs of life outside of one game against the Bengals in September.

Hock hasn’t reached 50 yards (air or realized) in a game this season, and while seeing him make his biggest play of the season last week was at least a step in the right direction (21 yards), the volume just isn’t close to high enough.

He’s struggled to open up, throwing windows all season, but the 28-year-old has just 11 catches on 133 routes in JJ McCarthy’s starts this season. That’s not going to work.

The worst part? He’s not even the top priority when it comes to pass catchers on this offense that need to be fixed. Maybe he will develop rapidly with McCarthy over the next month, and I can change my tune by the fantasy playoffs, but I’m not going to be burned in assuming that’s destined to be the case.

Hock is my TE19 this week.

Theo Johnson | NYG (at DET)

The play-calling in New York is what has me skirting the QB inconsistencies and ranking Theo Johnson as a low-end TE1 in a game that sportsbooks are projecting to go over 50 points.

Last week against the Packers, Johnson forced a DPI flag in the end zone, and with an aDOT north of 7.5 yards in four straight games, the G-Men are clearly aware that they have a unique athlete who is a walking mismatch.

To be honest, I’m intrigued by the optionality Johnson provides this offense when the roster is at full strength next season, but in the short term, I think he can thrive, even if defenses make him a priority.

There’s obvious risk in backing a second-year TE attached to an iffy offense as a monster underdog, but the reward potential is rare at this point in the rankings, and that has me interested.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs IND)

Part of my Travis Kelce fade this offseason was looking back at his production and realizing that the Chiefs go his way only when they need to.

When seeding is on the line, as we are in the playoffs, GOAT Kelce comes to play, but he’s otherwise been managed in an effort to make sure that he’s physically capable of being there during the winter months.

Well, it’s getting late early for 5-5 Kansas City, and that’s forced their hand. The future Hall of Famer recorded season highs last week in catches (nine), targets (13), and yards (91) against the Broncos, a production path that I think sticks moving forward.

Kelce has a 20+ yard catch in four straight games, and he’s marrying the big play ability with the safety blanket role. In Week 11, 11 of his targets and all of his catches came shy of the chains, another trend I suspect will continue as the Chiefs try to grind out a winning streak to qualify for the postseason.

I can’t imagine Chiefs fans are happy with how this season has gone so far, but fantasy managers have to be happy with the future projection. Kelce is a solid Tier 2 tight end moving forward and is one of two top-5 players at the position that will take the field in this matchup on Sunday.

Trey McBride | ARI (vs JAX)

It isn’t easy to overstate how impressive what Trey McBride is doing right now. There was no Harrison on Sunday, and that made his path to 8+ catches for the fourth time in five games a bit clearer, but I’m not sure anything can slow him down at this point.

Reception Leaders Since 2024

1. Ja’Marr Chase: 206
2. McBride: 182
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown: 181
4. Jaxson Smith-Njigba: 172
5. Drake London: 160
6. Justin Jefferson: 159

Jacoby Brissett has unlocked the touchdown scoring that Kyler Murray could never get to (TD in five straight), and that’s just a bonus. McBride’s scoring equity OR his raw volume would be enough to land him as a Tier 1 player at the position: the fact that he’s juggling both makes him THE Tier 1, not just a part of it.

Tyler Warren | IND (at KC)

Tyler Warren posted the highest target share of his season in Week 10 against the Falcons before the bye (38.5%), and he continues to prove himself to be an elite asset in all formats.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

The dominance of Jonathan Taylor has zapped some of the upside from the rookie’s profile (held without an end zone target in eight of 10 games). Still, much like Trey McBride in previous seasons, his target-earning talent transcends a position that requires touchdowns from most.

It’s reasonable to fear some natural regression on the part of Daniel Jones. Still, with a 5.9 aDOT (3.6 over his past two games), Warren is positioned to sustain his status as a Tier 1 player at the position even if that concern comes to light.