It’s Time For Baker Mayfield, Bucs To Ascend In NFC

 

SR’s FAB 5 column on the Bucs is presented by Gameday Men’s Health

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INTRO: The start of Tampa Bay’s 2026 season is upon and it’s time for Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles and the Bucs to go from being good to great. Plus some big questions about Bowles’ revamped defense will be answered in Cincinnati, while new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson tries to replicate some of the success Liam Coen had with Tampa Bay’s offense in 2024. Enjoy!

FAB 1. It’s Time For Baker Mayfield, Bucs To Ascend In NFC

The Buccaneers kick off their 2026 season as underdogs in Cincinnati against the Bengals.

Joe Burrow and Co. finished 6-11 last year, largely due to Burrow missing a chunk of the season due to an early season toe injury that required surgery and the fact that Cincinnati had the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL, surrendering an average of 28.9 points per game.

Think about that for a second. That’s how little the odds-makers think about the Bucs this season, as Las Vegas sportsbooks have Tampa Bay at 8.5 wins – expecting virtually the same 8-9 record as last year.

The expectations have to be higher for Todd Bowles and his team this year, as Bowles enters the 2026 campaign with a 35-33 record that is barely above .500 in four seasons as head coach in Tampa Bay. Bowles’ Buccaneers have gone 8-9, 9-8, 10-7 and 8-9 again, barely winning three division titles in the NFC South, which may continue to be the worst division in football.

And with Tuesday’s breaking news that the Bucs extended Baker Mayfield’s contract through 2029, expectations have to be higher for Mayfield, too.

Mayfield signed a three-year extension worth $165 million, an average of $55 million per year. He went from being the 16th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL to being tied for third behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($64 million per year) and Dallas’ Dak Prescott ($60 million per year). Mayfield’s company in the $55 million club consists of Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Los Angeles’ Matt Stafford, and Burrow, whom Mayfield and the Bucs square off against on Sunday.

While the Bengals haven’t been to the playoffs since 2022, missing out from 2023-24 with a pair of 9-8 records, Burrow did take Cincy to the Super Bowl in 2021 with a 10-7 record and to the AFC Championship Game in 2022 with a 12-4 record.

Mayfield, Bowles and the Bucs have yet to advance past the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

I’m happy that Mayfield cashed in on a lucrative contract extension. He’s more than just a quarterback in Tampa Bay. He’s the Bucs’ engine – the team’s unquestioned leader. Former offensive coordinator Liam Coen said it best when he arrived in Tampa Bay in 2024, calling Mayfield “an igniter.”

But there is a part of me that wanted to see Mayfield play with a chip on his shoulder all season long over his contract dispute. That would’ve been fun to see, and I think we would have seen the best of Mayfield come out. Let’s hope that Mayfield will still have the same level of fire now that he signed the richest contract in Buccaneers history, making more than double of what Tom Brady made in a single season, which was $25 million.

Mayfield said the contract won’t change him or his approach to football as a competitor. Mayfield’s teammates and coaches said they haven’t seen a change in Mayfield this week since he signed the deal. Time will ultimately tell.

“I still have so much to prove,” Mayfield said. “This isn’t ‘I’ve made it.’ You know, this is life-changing money, this is stuff that, for us, is unbelievable, but it’s an opportunity to help the community and to continue to progress and move forward. The main goal is still the Super Bowl, and I don’t have one of those.”

But the contract has to change Mayfield.

Let’s be real – $55 million is not “good quarterback” money. It’s “great quarterback” money.

And winning the NFC South with nine and 10 victories, as the Bucs have done twice times under Mayfield, is good – not great, especially with a 1-2 record in the postseason.

What does great look like? For Mayfield, it’s getting back to the 2024 season from a statistical standpoint. That year under Coen’s direction, Mayfield achieved personal bests with 41 touchdowns, 4,500 passing yards and completing a franchise-record 71.4% completion percentage. More importantly, the Bucs had a top 5 scoring offense and won 10 games. The team is hoping that new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who is best friends with Coen from their days together with the Rams, can help get Mayfield back to playing at that level.

For the Buccaneers, great looks like winning the division decisively with 11, 12 or 13 victories – and pulling away at the end of the schedule and not having the NFC South title still on the line in Week 17 or Week 18, as has been the case for Tampa Bay in recent years.

I predict a 10-win season for the Bucs in 2026, which should be a bounce-back year for this team that will be playing with a rebuilt defense featuring three rookie starters. But in future years, this team needs to be better.

For that to happen, Mayfield has to be better. He needs to be great – consistently.

Maybe that can take place if Mayfield has the same offensive coordinator in place for more than one year. Dating back to his first year in Cleveland in 2018, Mayfield has never had the same offensive coordinator in back-to-back seasons, and he’s on his fourth one in four seasons here in Tampa Bay with Robinson.

For the sake of Mayfield and the Bucs, let’s hope the greatness begins on Sunday in Cincinnati.

FAB 2. Will Todd Bowles Be Patient Against Max Protection On Sunday?

Because of Todd Bowles’ tendency to blitz opposing quarterbacks like crazy, opposing teams countered by having their quarterbacks get rid of the ball in under three seconds. And that was with a less heralded defensive front that consisted of Yaya Diaby, Vita Vea, rookie Elijah Roberts, who was filling in for the injured Calijah Kancey most of the year, and Haason Reddick, a free agent bust who was cooked at age 31.

Even if Tampa Bay had a defensive line consisting of Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice, Shaq Barrett and Ndamukong Suh in their heyday, it would be difficult for those Bucs pass rushing legends to rack up the sacks in just over two seconds.

Now imagine how quickly Joe Burrow and the quarterbacks who follow him on Tampa Bay’s schedule will try to get rid of the ball when facing Diaby, Vea, Kancey and rookie outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. I expect to see a lot of quick passes underneath to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on Sunday, including a couple of wide receiver screens.

And when head coach and offensive play-caller Zac Taylor wants Burrow to go deep, I suspect he’ll help the Bengals shaky offensive line by going to some max protection sets, keeping either two tight ends in to help block or a tight end and a running back, especially because Bowles likes to bring pressure with blitzes consisting of five or six defenders going for the QB. It will be an interesting numbers game to watch on Sunday because the more help that is offered to Burrow the fewer targets he’ll have to throw to.

Usually rushing four and dropping seven in coverage is a numbers advantage for the defense, but if the Bengals protect Burrow with seven upfront against the Bucs’ front four, there will still be three eligible receivers out on routes. If Burrow has all day to throw behind successful max protection, eventually one of those targets will get open against man coverage or find a hole in zone. Especially if it’s a seasoned, skilled veteran like Chase or Higgins.

Bowles craves pressure and is known to be impatient as a defensive play-caller. He’ll quickly scrap any plans of a four-man pass rush if the Bengals go with a max protect scheme and send a blitzer or two whether it’s an inside linebacker or a defense back – or both. The more bodies Bowles sends at Burrow the fewer there are to cover Chase, Higgins and the other Bengals targets.

And sometimes it’s not the star receiver that ends up burning Bowles’ secondary. Last year rookie receiver Kyle Williams had a 72-yard touchdown catch in the Patriots’ win over the Buccaneers. The next week it was Tyrell Shavers hauling in a 43-yard touchdown in Buffalo’s victory over Tampa Bay. In Week 17, in Miami’s win over Tampa Bay, Theo Wease Jr. caught a 63-yard touchdown pass from rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers.

“Big challenge, huge challenge,” Bowles said. “I mean, those guys have been together for a long time in that offense. Burrow and Chase have been together since college, so they’ve been doing it for a long time. [They are] very precise, know each other very well – not just those two, but Higgins and the rest of the guys as well, [Chase] Brown, the rest of the team, very good chemistry there, very good chemistry there. We’ve just got to line up and be very sound at what we do, and we’ve got to make plays.”

And be patient when it comes to pressuring Burrow on Sunday.

FAB 3. Who Plays Nickelback For The Bucs This Year?

The Bucs released their initial depth chart this week in advance of the 2026 season. As expected, Todd Bowles’ 3-4 defense is featured with defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson, Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey listed as starters alongside outside linebackers Rueben Bain Jr. and Yaya Diaby, inside linebackers Josiah Trotter and Alex Anzalone, cornerbacks Jacob Parrish and Zyon McCollum and safeties Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr.

What wasn’t listed was which player would be starting at nickelback. Considering the Bucs deploy nickel defense over 60% of the time, the slot cornerback is a very important role in Bowles’ scheme.

Bowles is keeping who will play nickelback on Sunday against the Bengals under wraps, and for good reason. The more he and the Bucs can disguise their coverages the better against Joe Burrow, who is a top 5 quarterback in the NFL.

“I feel like anytime you go against a veteran quarterback that’s been there, done that, there’s an element of disguise and what you have to do defensively to prepare for him and get him to think a little bit post-snap,” Anzalone said. “He’s obviously one of the best in the league at doing that.”

Bowles can go in different directions at nickelback on Sunday – and throughout the season. The Bucs drafted Keionte Scott, who excelled at playing in the slot at Miami, in the fourth round this year. Scott used his 4.33 speed to rack up five sacks on nickel blitzes last season for the Hurricanes, and he also had a pair of pick-sixes in coverage.

Last year’s nickelback, Parrish, won the outside cornerback spot that was vacant due to the departure of Jamel Dean in free agency. When Bowles wants to deploy his nickel defense he could turn to Scott to play in the slot as he has opted to start a rookie there in each of the last three seasons – Christian Izien in 2023, Smith in 2024 and Parrish in 2025.

Or Bowles could opt to move Parrish back to the slot in nickel situations and bring Benjamin Morrison in the game to replace Parrish at outside cornerback opposite McCollum. Bowles might even deploy a dime defense that features just Anzalone at linebacker and have McCollum, Parrish, Smith, Winfield, Morrison and Scott on the field at the same time in the secondary.

All but Morrison have seen some time playing in the slot under Bowles, which could help the Bucs when it comes to disguising their coverages this Sunday in Cincinnati.

“I’d say so for sure,” McCollum said. “It’s one of the hidden things with his defense – the versatility between everybody. Everybody is very versatile. We can play almost any spot, so we can disguise a lot. Teams aren’t going to know when we’re playing man, when we’re playing zone.”

Bowles has rarely deployed a dime defense in his time in Tampa Bay. At the same time, rarely has he had as much talent in the secondary as he does this year – albeit there is some inexperience he must contend with. Parrish started all 17 games last year, but only five at outside cornerback. Morrison was only healthy enough to suit up for 10 games and had just three starts. And of course Scott’s first NFL action will be on Sunday in Cincinnati.

Facing a potent passing game led by Joe Burrow and the receiving tandem for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be a formidable test for Bowles’ secondary right out of the gate. That’s not lost on McCollum.

“They’re up there, they’re probably top 3,” McCollum said of the duo of Chase and Higgins. “They’ve got some talent on the offensive side of the ball – mainly quarterback, receiver and running back. They’ve got weapons. Perfect test for us. It’s a great opportunity.

“You’ll have opportunities. The ball is guaranteed to go in the air, and ball in the air belongs to us. That’s the mentality that we have going into the game thinking and we’re going to get tested early. It’s an incredible opportunity for us. There will be no better feeling when we take away three, four interceptions.”

That’s a bold prediction considering that Burrow only threw five interceptions against 17 touchdowns last year in eight games, and threw just nine interceptions when he started all 17 games in 2024 when he threw a league-high 43 touchdowns.

FAB 4. Can Zac Robinson Mimic Liam Coen’s Success From 2024?

As bad as the Bucs defense played in 2025, we can’t forget the huge step backwards in point production that Tampa Bay’s offense experienced last year under rookie play-caller Josh Grizzard. There’s no doubt that Grizzard was dealt a tough hand with numerous significant injuries on offense last year to the offensive line and the receiver room, not to mention injuries to Bucky Irving and quarterback Baker Mayfield.

The Bucs averaged 29 points per game under offensive coordinator Liam Coen the previous year in 2024 and then averaged just over 22 points per game last season. That’s a touchdown less per game that Tampa Bay scored versus the previous season. That’s significant.

New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes over from Atlanta where the Falcons were one of the league’s best red zone teams, ranking 10th with a 62% touchdown efficiency in the red zone. By comparison, the Bucs ranked 24th at 54%

Under Coen in 2024, the Bucs ranked fourth in red zone scoring efficiency at 66.7%. The best way to increase point production and get it back closer to the 2024 level is to score more touchdowns and fewer field goals in the red zone.

Robinson has wisely not just reviewed how the Bucs offense fared last year during a tough 2025 campaign, but he went back and watched all of the games from the 2024 season when Coen, his best friend since their days together on Sean McVay’s staff in L.A., was directing Tampa Bay’s offense.

“Yeah, I’ve watched all those games, watched all the games from last year,” Robinson said. “You can kind of compare, contrast, but it was easier to see with the collection of guys that were here. Obviously, Mike [Evans] was on that ’24 team and a lot of things went through him, so that part is a little bit different. But yeah, it’s an impressive group when they’re all clicking and rolling together. I was definitely able to see some of those things and maybe some stuff that we didn’t have in [Los Angeles] or Atlanta that was brought here, whether it was from Dave [Canales] or it was Liam, some of the new tweaks that were added that just naturally come up year to year just based on your players.

“It was cool to just look at all of it and kind of tailor it our own way and keep some stuff and maybe change some verbiage with this or add this. It’s a lot of work from the coaches. The coaches, we hunkered down there for the spring and even through training camp to try to figure out what we want it to look like. You also know that Week 1 to Week 8 could look completely different. … So, knowing that you have to have some flexibility and ability to adjust in this league based on personnel or based on what you end up being good at that you might not think you were going to be good at. So, that’s the fun part of it, but we’re looking forward to kind of putting it all together.”

One of the key elements that Coen introduced the Pony personnel package, which featured two halfbacks – Bucky Irving and Rachaad White – on the field at the same time. With both backs being able to either run or catch the ball, it kept opposing defenses on their heels and proved to be a dangerous package for Tampa Bay’s offense to deploy. Coen used the Pony package 112 times in 2024, but Grizzard used it half as much as Coen did – just 63 times in 2025.

Robinson used Pony 96 times in Atlanta last year with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the same backfield together, and plans to do the same with Irving and new running back Kenny Gainwell, who is an elite receiving back out of the backfield.

“The versatility between both of those two guys and how interchangeable they can be has been a lot of fun to just see up close,” Robinson said of Irving and Gainwell.

Irving grew as a receiver last year, catching a career-high three touchdowns, including a 70-yarder versus Philadelphia, while Gainwell has shown the ability to run routes like a wide receiver. Whether it’s on swing passes to the flat, screens, wheel routes or rail routes out of the backfield or being deployed in the slot or out wide, Gainwell and Irving can hurt opposing defenses in a myriad of ways.

Expect both backs to get plenty of red zone touches – on the ground and through the air – as Tampa Bay aims to get back into the top 5 in scoring offense this season.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• Bucs head coach Todd Bowles spoke glowingly about the team’s depth at outside linebacker this year. Rueben Bain Jr. and Yaya Diaby are the starters with veterans Anthony Nelson and Al-Quadin Muhammad as the top reserves along with David Walker, who is back from a torn ACL last year.

“I feel like I don’t have reserves for the first time,” Bowles said. “I feel like all five of them can play if need be on first, second down, and third down as well. All of them are good pass rushers in their own right and have special things they do. ‘Mo’ has been outstanding, bringing him in. He can do a lot of things for us. Every time you put ‘Nelly’ in, he makes plays. David coming on after being out with the knee last year and showing what he can do in the preseason…Obviously, has to get the scheme down a little bit more, but there’ll be some packages for him this year as well. All three of them can go in and play and you feel comfortable about it.”

One of last year’s top reserves, former second-round pick Chris Braswell, didn’t make the team this season.

• Coming off a disappointing 2024 season I asked Bucs cornerback Zyon McCollum to answer this question heading into the 2025 campaign. The best version of Zyon McCollum happens in 2025 because…

“Because he’s detailed,” McCollum said. “That’s it – the attention to detail. He’s focused. That’s what I’ve been harping on is just maintaining focus, maintaining concentration for hours and hours on end. Bowles has challenged me: don’t get bored with the basics, don’t get bored as the game continues to goes on. That’s what we’ve been working on all camp.”

The Bucs actually view second-year cornerback Jacob Parrish as the team’s best corner based on his performance in training camp. But Tampa Bay does need McCollum to have a bounce-back season and come a lot closer to earning that three-year, $48 million contract he signed last year.

• Bucs wideout Ted Hurst III was unaware that a rookie receiver has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last three season openers for Tampa Bay. Trey Palmer caught a touchdown pass at Minnesota in his first NFL game in 2023, while Jalen McMillan scored a touchdown on his first NFL catch in the 2024 season-opening win over Washington. Last year Emeka Egbuka caught two touchdowns, including the game-winner, at Atlanta in Week 1.

“Nah, I had no clue about that, but we’re going to keep it consecutive,” Hurst said. “I had a slow start [to training camp], but I had to get back into my playbook and still learning my technique and my habits. I felt like as the weeks progressed I was getting better. With the guys being down it actually helped me because I got a lot of reps.

“Coach BMac (receivers coach Bryan McClendon) was really hard on me. He really wants to prepare me for my upcoming situations when I get in so I can make the most of my opportunities.”

We’ll see if Hurst can extend that rookie touchdown streak to four years on Sunday in Cincinnati.

• Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield has had some unreal success against the Bengals in Cincinnati, as Fox Sports’ Greg Auman recently posted on X.

The Bucs’ 2026 season begins! Just hours before Tampa Bay’s season opener, Pewter Report previews the Bucs’ road game against the Bengals, looking at the biggest matchups to pay attention to and the players to watch during it.

The Pewter Pregame Show Kicks Off At 9:00am On Sunday

The Pewter Pregame podcast kicks off at 9:00 a.m. this Sunday just hours before the Bucs begin the 2025 season against the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Pewter Pregame LIVE stream can be found on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel as well as Pewter Report’s social media channels on X and Facebook at 9:00 a.m. ET on game day.

Scott Reynolds and Adam Slivon preview the game, reveal their Bucs players to watch, provide the latest injury updates and answer questions from Bucs fans live during this one-hour show. Can’t make the LIVE Pewter Pregame show? You can always watch the archived show any time before kickoff on PewterReportTV.

Watch Pewter GameDay: Bucs At Bengals LIVE In-Game Analysis

Pewter Report’s popular in-game LIVE Pewter GameDay show will also return on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 p.m. ET as the Bucs face the Bengals to kick off the season. Pewter Report’s Matt Matera will be joined by fellow Pewter Reporter Josh Queipo to analyze all of the action in real time during Tampa Bay’s three-hour game.

The Pewter GameDay show will not show the Bucs broadcast, so Tampa Bay fans are encouraged to watch the Bucs game live on the broadcast network and also tune in to the Pewter Report staff on Pewter GameDay via PewterReportTV on YouTube for added context and insight to enhance your viewing pleasure. The Pewter GameDay LIVE stream can also be found on Pewter Report’s social media channels on X and Facebook.

Pewter GameDay is a great way to receive news and expert analysis during the Tampa Bay games in the 2026 season and LIVE in-game analysis begins five minutes before kickoff at 1:00 p.m. ET. The PR staff will be on hand to post your comments and answer your questions throughout the game. Click the link below at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday to watch Pewter GameDay on our PewterReportTV YouTube channel.

Tune In To The Pewter Report Postgame Podcast Following The Bucs Game

Within an hour after the conclusion of each Bucs game, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds and Matt Matera analyze the outcome, breakdown the post-game press conferences and offer up expert analysis on all the action.