Bucs at Bengals: SR’s Pick-6 Preview

Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Tampa Bay is trying to erase the memory of a disappointing 8-9 season from a year with a win in Week 1 in Cincinnati. The Bucs overhauled their roster this offseason with another fantastic draft – headlined by first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. – and had some key additions in free agency, in addition to a new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who had two years worth of play-calling experience in Atlanta. The Bengals are trying to get back to the playoffs after a three-year absence and Joe Burrow and Co. will test Todd Bowles’ revamped defense in the 2026 season opener.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs?

It’s all good vibes for Todd Bowles and the Bucs right now coming off a great offseason of retooling the roster and adding more talent to the defensive side of the ball, in addition to hiring an experienced offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. But a loss in Week 1 at Cincinnati will rekindle talk of last year’s 2-7 finish down the stretch, which led to an 8-9 record and missing the playoffs – especially if Bowles’ defense underachieves.

Bowles has gotten his team off to four consecutive 2-0 starts since taking over has head coach in 2022. That includes three road wins at Dallas, at Minnesota and at Atlanta in season openers due to tremendous preparation by the coaching staff and focus by the players. A Week 1 win is expected from Bucs fans and an opening day victory keeps the vibes high heading into the home opener against the Browns next week.

What’s At Stake For The Bengals?

Historically the Bengals don’t start the season well, but managed to go 2-0 with wins over the Browns and Jaguars last September. The problem is that the team only won four more games and finished 6-11. That was a disappointing season, capped off by an injury to quarterback Joe Burrow and a Cincinnati defense that couldn’t stop anybody. After a pair of nine-win seasons in 2023 and 2024, the Bengals took a step back last year and need to take a step forward in 2026.

Head coach Zac Taylor hasn’t made the playoffs since making it to the AFC Championship Game in 2022, and if he doesn’t get the Bengals off to a good start, the natives in Cincy will grow restless. An improved Bucs team presents quite a challenge on opening day, and Taylor will need to have his offense ready to lead the way while the team’s revamped defense comes together.

The Bucs Win If…

Is this game going to be a low-scoring slugfest thanks to a pair of improved defenses? Or will the high-powered offense from each team ignite into a shootout? The Bucs should have a path to victory either way if they can limit turnovers on offense and stay on the field on third downs. Zac Robinson will want to establish the run so that Baker Mayfield can more successfully operate the play-action passing game. If Tampa Bay can run for more than 110 yards in Cincinnati, that should lead to victory if the defense can do its part.

The Bucs defense will feature as many as five new starters, including three rookies in middle linebacker Josiah Trotter, outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. and Keionte Scott. If the defense can quickly assimilate, play as one and communicate well to avoid too many mistakes, the Bucs should be in good shape in Week 1. Stopping running back Chase Brown early and setting up third-and-long situations can lead to Todd Bowles’ defense teeing off against a subpar Bengals offensive line and getting to Joe Burrow.

The Bengals Win If…

If Cincinnati’s offense comes out of the gate firing and scores multiple touchdowns, it could be difficult for a Tampa Bay team still trying to master a new playbook to keep up if the Bucs offense is sluggish and mistake-prone in Week 1. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could make Sunday a track meet on the scoreboard if the offensive line can hold up and head coach and play-caller Zac Taylor can exploit a young and inexperienced Bucs secondary. Todd Bowles will want to make the Bengals one-dimensional by stopping the run, so Cincy must get Chase Brown going to keep the Bucs off balance.

Defensively, the Bengals have a reputation for not being able to slow down opponents. They’ve added some new pieces on defense this year, and if they can stifle the Bucs offense early, it could give them some renewed confidence and momentum. But if Cincy gives up multiple touchdowns in the first half, doubt and a “here we go again” attitude could take hold instead. Tampa Bay’s special teams were terrible last year and had some hiccups in the preseason in terms of coverage. If Cincinnati can stay even with Tampa Bay on offense and defense, perhaps the Bengals can exploit special teams for a deciding edge.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Interior O-Line vs. Bengals DTs

If Tampa Bay is going to beat Cincinnati on Sunday and come away with a Week 1 win, the Bucs offense is going to have to establish the run and light up the scoreboard. That will be easier said than done against a revamped Bengals defensive line that features newcomers in defensive tackles Dexter Lawrence II and Jonathan Allen. Cincinnati caused shockwaves around the league by trading for the former Giants Pro Bowl defensive tackle, who only had half a sack last year, but that was an outlier as he had nine the season before.

At 6-foot-5, 350 pounds, Lawrence is a behemoth and will provide a huge challenge for guards Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson as well as center Graham Barton. While not the superstar he was in his heyday with Washington, Allen, a former first-round pick, was brought in to help solidify the run defense and get after the quarterback. He notched 68 tackles and had 3.5 sacks last season in his lone year in Minnesota.

The Bengals’ reserve defensive tackles are quite formidable too. T.J. Slaton Jr. is a monster at 6-foot-5, 340 pounds and is coming off a season where he had 52 tackles and three sacks. B.J. Hill is 6-foot-3, 311 pounder and is coming off a four-sack season and provides power as a run stuffer. Barton, Bredeson and Mauch will need to be technically sound to control the line of scrimmage, as sheer size and strength won’t be enough. This might be a game where new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson leans more on wide zone than duo or a gap-based running game between the tackles.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Secondary vs. Bengals WRs

As tempting as it is to pit Tampa Bay’s upgraded defensive line against a Cincinnati offensive line that is suspect in pass protection, Joe Burrow can quickly get rid of the ball to negate the Bucs’ improved pass rush. So the real key matchup will be Tampa Bay’s secondary against the Bengals wide receivers, led by Pro Bowler Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Colbie Young, a 6-foot-3, 218-pound rookie out of Georgia. Chase is a game-breaker who is capable of racking up YAC yardage, while Higgins is a smooth route-runner who can beat a secondary if too much attention is paid to Chase. Both have good size at 6-foot, 205 pounds and 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, respectively.

Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish, who is a bit undersized at 5-foot-10, 200 pounds, will have to bring their A game to Cincy. And it will be fascinating to see if Todd Bowles inserts Benjamin Morrison as an outside cornerback and moves Parrish back to the slot in nickel defense, or opts to start rookie Keionte Scott at nickelback and keep Parrish outside. Safeties Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr. need to help out in coverage and take great angles and tackle well.

It should be noted that Tampa Bay is starting a pair of new linebackers in veteran Alex Anzalone and rookie Josiah Trotter, the team’s second-round pick. Look for head coach and play-caller Zac Taylor to try to guide Burrow into exploiting the intermediate middle of Tampa Bay’s defense, possibly with some crossing routes in a mesh concept to try to fool Trotter and get him out of position.