PR Roundtable: 2026 Bucs Record Predictions

Pewter Report’s PR Roundtable
presented by PrizePicks

Sign up for PrizePicks with code: HMA then play a $5 lineup and get $150 if you win by clicking HERE.

A new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts every Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Each week, the Pewter Reporters tackle another tough Bucs question. This week’s prompt: What is your 2026 Bucs record prediction?

Scott Reynolds: I Predict A Bounce-Back Season For The Bucs At 10-7

If you read last week’s SR’s FAB 5 column on PewterReport.com you know that I predicted a 10-7 season for the Buccaneers in 2026. Last year I predicted Tampa Bay would take a step forward from its 10-7 record in 2024 and finish 11-6, winning the NFC South title for a fourth straight time under head coach Todd Bowles. After a hot 6-2 start it looked like there was plenty of merit in my lofty prediction, but then we all witnessed this team collapse after the bye week and finish 8-9, losing the division to Carolina and missing the playoffs.

This year I have the team bouncing back to 10 wins – largely due to the addition of a bunch of new talent on defense and replacing Josh Grizzard, last year’s rookie play-caller on offense, with experienced offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. I actually think a lot of league analysts are sleeping on the Bucs’ potential in 2026, as I can’t find any prominent media outlets matching my 10-7 record for Tampa Bay or daring to predict more wins.

Had the Buccaneers simply hung on to beat the Falcons on Thursday Night Football before blowing a 14-point lead with 10 minutes left, and then either not inexplicably lost at home to a three-win Saints team or losing on the road in Miami against a rookie QB in Quinn Ewers then Tampa Bay would have won 10 games and remained atop the division. That’s how close the injury-riddled Bucs were a year ago.

You can read my game-by-game predictions in my latest SR’s FAB 5, and for some reason I forecast a hot, 4-0 start followed by yet another familiar three-game losing streak – unfortunately. And of course I have Tampa Bay waiting until the season finale at New Orleans to win the division. I would love to see a Todd Bowles team actually win more than 10 games in a season, but in eight years as a head coach between Tampa Bay and New York his ceiling appears to be at 10.

Matt Matera: Bucs Take A Step Forward With 10 Wins

The Bucs have the talent and potential to win 12 games this year, maybe even tie their franchise record at 13. But other factors come into play and that brings them back down to Earth at 10 wins. We’re all excited for this new look defense and what Todd Bowles can do with it, but how long will it take for them to put it together? That same question can be asked about the offense with Zac Robinson. 

It’s a spiteful season ahead for quarterback Baker Mayfield, who’s essentially guaranteed that he’s going to have a great year and the Bucs will shock a lot of people. A motivated Mayfield is a great Mayfield. Hopefully that can be sustained for the whole season as the offense generates points with a healthier unit. 

Tampa Bay doesn’t have the easiest schedule having to go against the NFC North along with a primetime road game at the Cowboys and games against each Los Angeles team. Because of that and the team’s propensity to lose several games in a row, I see them taking a step forward from a season ago but also not reaching their full potential. The Bucs are better, but not that much better compared to the rest of the NFC. Thankfully, 10 wins should get them a playoff appearance.

Adam Slivon: Bucs Reach 10-Win Threshold Once Again In 2026

Last season, I predicted that the Bucs would reach 12 wins. For the first half of the year, that bold prediction seemed well on its way to becoming reality before the team crashed back down to Earth. Now it is worth wondering what the true ceiling is for Tampa Bay under Todd Bowles. Even with that in mind, several factors work in the team’s favor to foresee a return to 10 wins in 2026.

The Bucs improved the coaching staff around Bowles, most notably with Zac Robinson taking over as offensive coordinator. Given his experience calling plays for the Falcons and Rams background, that should inject life into a healthy Baker Mayfield bouncing back and performing like the franchise quarterback he and the organization view him as.

Even if the offense does not reach the heights it did under Liam Coen, there are a lot of winnable games on the schedule, primarily in the NFC South. Defensively, the unit is deeper across the board and is poised to deal serious damage. Given the deeper collection of talent on that side of the football, it could very well be a top 10 group at season’s end.

Having better ingredients to cook with will lead to an improved win-loss record from a year ago, but no team is perfect. In forecasting my win-loss prediction, there will be times the team stumbles, and opponents like the Packers, Bears, Chargers, Ravens, and Rams will capitalize on mistakes. With so much parity across the league and the motto of “any given Sunday,” there will be weeks it does not click. A 10-7 record is the reasonable ceiling of predicting where the Bucs will finish until they prove they are capable of more.

Bailey Adams: It’s Back To 10 Wins For The Bucs In 2026

This Bucs roster looks better than the 2025 version, especially on defense. The pass rush looks like it really could be something special, with Yaya Diaby and Anthony Nelson now having help in the form of first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr., 2025 fourth-rounder David Walker and a veteran free agent addition in Al-Quadin Muhammad. The play at inside linebacker should be improved, too, with the additions of Alex Anzalone and second-round pick Josiah Trotter. Having Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith patrolling the back end of the defense is huge as well, and I love the attitude adjustment the defense has undergone.

There’s plenty of talent on offense as well. The fact that Baker Mayfield should be put in a better position within this offensive system than he was in a more vertical passing attack last season is a big deal. I think he’ll have a big bounce-back season. Even without Mike Evans, I think there’s plenty of help for Mayfield in the passing game, with a receiving corps that is five-deep, a reliable tight end in Cade Otton and some pass-catching threats out of the backfield in Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell. And having the offensive line back to full health is massive.

As for my main concerns and what I think will ultimately prevent the Bucs from 11+ wins? On defense, it’s the unproven depth in the secondary, though I feel better about it now than I did going into training camp. Offensively, it remains to be seen whether Zac Robinson can get that group back to the levels it reached under Liam Coen in 2024, which was the only other double-digit-win season the Bucs have had under Todd Bowles. I’m skeptical about that.

The schedule also isn’t the easiest, with difficult games against the Bengals, Packers, Cowboys, Steelers, Bears, Lions, Chargers, Ravens and Rams. And that’s without getting into the NFC South contests, which Bowles and Co. tend to struggle with. Ultimately, I believe this offense will be close enough to the 2024 version to get the Bucs within the 10-win range, and it’ll be the much-improved defense that solidifies them as team that can win double-digit games even against a tough schedule.

Looking at the two halves of the season — split by the Week 10 bye — I think Tampa Bay can get off to a hot start over the first nine games and then essentially tread water during the final eight contests. Go 6-3 before the bye — conservatively calling the Bengals, Browns, Vikings, Panthers and Falcons wins and needing one more between the Packers, Cowboys, Steelers and Bears games — and that provides enough room to get to .500 after the bye to secure a 10-win season, a fifth NFC South title in six seasons and a home playoff game.

Josh Queipo: With Better Health, The Bucs Will Win 11 Games This Year

Last year I was the highest in the group with a prediction of 12 wins. Injuries played a large role in derailing that projection. This is a better team than the one they had last year. But in learning from past mistakes, I want to allow for the final roster picture in Week 18 that will look different than the initial one here in Week 1. If this team were to remain fully healthy for the entire season, I think the defense is good enough to fuel them to 12-13 wins.

The offense has me a bit more worried. I don’t fully believe in Zac Robinson as an offensive coordinator. The Falcons had a good offensive line, a great running game, and several talented receiving options and still only produced an offense that was 23rd in EPA/play, 25th in success rate and 25th in points per drive last year. He’s working with a better quarterback this year, but a more volatile receiving group (in terms of potential outcomes). That caps the team’s ceiling in my mind.

But I come back to a potentially elite defense facing a division full of average-at-best offenses. And their slate doesn’t get much harder outside of the division. They face just five offenses that were top 10 or better in EPA/play last year, four that were top 10 in success rate or points per drive.

The stars are aligning for a defense-led year that propels the team to a double-digit win, division-winning year reminiscent of the Seahawks’ rise to glory last year. One where the offense has their moments, but ultimately is about average while the team limits points on the other side. Put me down for 11-6.

Nick Geddes: The Bucs Have A 10-Win Ceiling Under Todd Bowles