It’s one thing to take your rivals’ players. It’s another thing to weaken midtable. Sir Alex Ferguson was a master of it, specifically in attack: in 13 Premier League-winning seasons, Manchester United only dropped below 70 goals four times, as Ferguson crafted a formula to rejuvenate his forward line.
This was pre-xG, and simple enough to do every season: go and buy leading midtable forwards who will want to step up – and overpay if you need to.
Dwight Yorke. Teddy Sheringham. Louis Saha. Dimitar Berbatov. Alan Smith. Robin van Persie, if you want to stretch the parameters. Cristiano Ronaldo left in 2009: he was replaced by Antonio Valencia and Michael Owen. Ferguson still got his 80+ goals.
And sometimes, football really is as straightforward as that. Goals win football matches; the Premier League is a tough league to adapt to. Title rivals won’t sell you their best players, but teams a little lower down the table will if you offer what they’re worth to them. Taking a punt on a striker from abroad will either result in a Forlan or a Van Nistelrooy; a Bellion or a Solskjaer. With all due respect to data nerds, scouts, analysts and numbers guys, we can all look at Eric Cantona and have a reasonable idea of how he will translate an hour down the road.
The Belgian needed no adaptation time. He scored within weeks, rejuvenated Mikel Arteta’s attack immediately and went on to become – hopefully it’s not soon to say it, given what he did – a club legend. And yet Arsenal never again went and made the same kind of signing.
Not once in the last three years have Arsenal signed a league-leading attacker from a team outside the so-called ‘big six’ – and they barely had done for the decade prior. Jamie Vardy infamously turned them down after winning a league title with Leicester City. The Gunners bought Nicolas Pepe over Wilfried Zaha. Chelsea wanted rid of Kai Havertz (and we can’t straightfacedly call them midtable), so it wasn’t quite the same thing – the same is true of Noni Madueke, and anyway, were either of them truly tearing it up prior to joining Arsenal?
Not really. Riyad Mahrez seemingly only had eyes for Manchester City – but Antoine Semenyo was there for the taking. A steep fee at the time of around £60m for a player who Arsenal didn’t desperately need – but one that they’d love to bring in now. Anthony Gordon was around £40m when Newcastle United plucked him from Everton – and a little under double that this summer. Arsenal had serious interest – but passed both times.
Arsenal weren’t seriously in the conversation for Matheus Cunha or Bryan Mbeumo. They didn’t pull the trigger on Pedro Neto – despite wanting him at one stage. They didn’t sign Ivan Toney when they had the chance, or even Ollie Watkins. They didn’t want Alexander Isak last summer. Granted, these kinds of signings aren’t guaranteed to be big hits – but they were absent from conversations surrounding Richarlison and Dominic Solanke, too.
It’s strange, considering that Arsenal will happily ”overpay” in midfield. Bidding for Bruno Guimaraes started far below the £75m mark that he eventually cost. There appeared to be hesitation to pay around £60m needed to buy Eberechi Eze, before Spurs spurred Arsenal into action. Board member Josh Kroenke has admitted that Declan Rice cost more than he expected.
The last of which seems like a bargain, surely, even for £105m. Like most clubs, Arsenal have their valuations when it comes to players – but is it really worth holding back the tide of inflation like Cnut, or are you cutting your nose off to spite your face?
There’s seemingly a reluctance to buy a Rice or a Bruno or an Eze to improve the attack. Thinking ahead to the rest of the window – and the next couple – are Arsenal going to step up an approach for Junior Kroupi? Morgan Rogers was supposedly the big summer target, but they were reportedly reluctant to pay over the odds. Rayan at Bournemouth could become a top-level attacker. Nick Woltemade would make some sense. You get the feeling, for whatever reason, that Arsenal would are more likely to sign a ‘big six’ offcast, like a Cody Gakpo, an Omar Marmoush or a Nicolas Jackson.
With all the Prem-proven attackers they’ve had in Arteta’s time, Arsenal have looked to outsmart the market in attack. Gabriel Jesus wasn’t wanted elsewhere. Gabriel Martinelli cost relative pennies but could be moulded into what was wanted. Raheem Sterling was a low-cost loan with only upside. Madueke had potential. Former Brighton man Viktor Gyokeres was seen as better value than Benjamin Sesko.
For all the names mentioned, of course, Christos Tzolis could well turn out to be the signing of the season. Two assists in the Community Shield for what looks like Trossard regen, signed for under £40m: frankly, no one will care that Arsenal didn’t sign Rogers if the Greek continues at even half the pace he’s set. Sometimes, it’s those kind of transfers – the gem from abroad that no one was looking at, able to contribute double-figures from the start – who can make all the difference.
And not everyone can sign them. That’s no doubt Arsenal’s counter to all of this: not everyone can sign a Mohamed Salah. Otherwise, we’d all have a Mohamed Salah.
But where’s their Sadio Mane?