Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport X account this week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to SR each week via X using the hashtag #PRMailbag. Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.
QUESTION: On a scale of 1-10 where is Todd Bowles at on the hot seat scale?
ANSWER: As former Super Bowl-winning NFL head coach Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are.” And right now Todd Bowles is 35-33 as Tampa Bay’s head coach. That’s just two wins above .500. Bowles has had a 9-8 season in 2023 and a 10-7 season in 2024 sandwiched between a pair of 8-9 records in 2022 and 2025. While he has won three straight division championships from 2022-24, Bowles is just 1-3 in the postseason in Tampa Bay.
The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. Bowles’ most recent record is that 8-9 mark from a year ago when the Bucs lost their grip on the NFC South. After a hot 6-2 start, the Bucs went 2-7 down the stretch following the bye week. Injuries certainly played a role in the disappointing season, but were the Bucs as banged up as the 49ers, who managed to finish 12-5 despite a myriad of injuries in San Francisco?
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Bowles is famous for getting the Buccaneers off to fantastic starts. He’s gone 2-0 to start the season in each of his four years as the team’s head coach, which is quite a remarkable feat. Tampa Bay even started off 3-0 last year and were 5-1 at one point.
So if Bowles doesn’t mimic that start in 2026 and score wins at Cincinnati and at home against Cleveland in the first two weeks of the season I think there will be some serious alarm bells going off. Going 0-2 in what feels like winnable games would mean that the Bucs would be 2-9 over their last 11 games dating back to the 2025 season.
Even if Tampa Bay is 0-1 heading into the home opener versus Cleveland, the Bucs would be entering their three-game home stand that also includes home games against Minnesota and Green Bay – both of which could be considered winnable. I think Bowles needs to start no worse than 4-1 to temporarily get off the hot seat and put last year’s 2-7 finish in the rear view mirror.
From there he needs to avoid the three-game or four-game losing streaks that have held the team back from having an elite record in prior seasons. And I believe he needs to get to at least 10 wins in 2026, and likely a playoff appearance, to truly save his job. Either that or win nine games and make a very deep playoff run into January.
QUESTION: If this team ends up anywhere in the 6-9 win range, do you think the Bucs should move on from Todd Bowles – playoffs or not?
ANSWER: This is a very tough question to answer given the range of wins that you propose. If Tampa Bay wins just six or seven games that means that the team has continued to take a step back with Todd Bowles after an eight-win losing season in 2025. Historically, the Glazers have never allowed a head coach who had back-to-back losing seasons to stay on board the Bucs’ ship.
I think the Buccaneers have to show progress under Bowles in 2026. So even another 8-9 record – playoffs or not – probably would put Bowles’ job security in peril heading into 2027 unless the team wins the division with a losing record and makes a deep postseason run. I think Bowles needs to at least get to nine wins coupled with a playoff appearance – ideally winning the NFC South – in 2026 to keep his job.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
For increased job security, I think Bowles needs to get back to double-digit wins, and that means at least a 10-7 record in 2026 like the team achieved during the 2024 campaign because the expectation heading into last year was that the team would continue to ascend. And that meant getting to 11 wins or more, and/or making it deeper into the playoffs.
And after seeing the Glazers move on from the two winningest head coaches in franchise history in Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden – both of whom were fired after nine-win seasons – I get the feeling that Bowles needs to make it out of the first round of the playoffs. Bowles has a 1-3 record in the postseason in Tampa Bay with home losses in the Wild Card round to Dallas in 2022 and to Washington in 2024. Another first-round exit following one more home playoff loss might test the Glazers’ patience.
The ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl, and that only happens with success in the postseason. If Bowles fails to show he can win in the playoffs, especially at home, the Glazers will eventually grow frustrated and move on – rather than be stuck on a plateau. Of course it also matters how well the defense – Bowles’ side of the ball – is playing, and how successful new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was in his debut with Tampa Bay. There will be a lot of factors to consider when it comes to Bowles’ future with the Bucs beyond 2026.
QUESTION: I would like to know what this new offensive scheme will look like for the offensive line. Will there be more horizontal movement with blocking and scheming? Will the offense have more pre-snap movement? As football fans, we can all see that pre-snap movement crucial.
ANSWER: The answer to your question is yes and yes – based upon what we’ve seen so far in OTAs and the mandatory mini-camp. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson does want to diversify the team’s running game by incorporating more zone-based runs, including wide zone, which Tampa Bay didn’t quite master under former play-caller Liam Coen.
The Bucs offensive line is incredibly adept at man blocking, or gap scheme as it is known. Tampa Bay has just about perfected the art of duo blocks, which is two double-team blocks happening simultaneously. It’s basically a power run block without a pulling guard.
Bucs C Graham Barton and the O-line – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
But even though the Bucs are quite good at gap blocking and duo blocks, former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard leaned on this too much last year to the point where it became predictable and the effectiveness was nullified as a result. I think Grizzard was somewhat limited to gap blocking because he was often playing Mike Jordan and Dan Feeney, a pair of practice squaders, at guard last year due to injury.
Robinson wants to eliminate the predictability and offer up a healthy mix of both power man and zone blocking plays in the game plan to keep opponents guessing. The Bucs have the athletes along the line of scrimmage to pull off wide zone blocks, which are runs where the O-line moves laterally in concert to either allow running backs to get to the edge and turn the corner for a big gain, or use their vision to find a cutback lane and exploit it for a big run instead.
I also expect Robinson to incorporate a lot of counters and pin-and-pull runs to really mix it up and make Tampa Bay’s run game quite lethal. And yes, there will be plenty of motion and pre-snap movement in Robinson’s offense. We’ve seen plenty of motion and at times double motion during the offseason. And also no pistol formation, either. Baker Mayfield has either been in shotgun or under center.
QUESTION: Hypothetically, take this current roster and put them at the bye week of the 2025 season where the Bucs are 6-2. How does the season end up? Do they get 12 wins and make it to the NFC Championship Game?
ANSWER: This is a great hypothetical question, and I generally like hypotheticals because it promotes thought and there is truly no wrong answer. Let’s start with the premise that I believe that Tampa Bay’s 2026 roster is significantly better than last year’s team. And even Super Bowl-winning head coach Bruce Arians, who was a recent guest on the Pewter Report Podcast, believes that too.
On paper it looks like the talent has been upgraded the most on defense, and that’s because the defense had a ways to go to get from bad to hopefully good. But let’s not forget that the offense, which was ravaged with injuries last year, fell a whole touchdown in point production from a year ago. Tampa Bay averaged 29 points per game in 2024 and that scoring production dropped dramatically to 22 points per game. The hope is that the offense will be much more productive with Zac Robinson calling the plays this season.
Bucs OLBs Rueben Bain and Al-Quadin Muhammad – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
At the end of the day it was no surprise that the Bucs went 8-9 and had a losing record because the offense was scoring 22 points per game and the defense wound up giving up 24 points per game. So let’s say that the offense’s scoring average improves to 27 points per game this year and the defense’s scoring average improves to 21 points per game with all of the new additions.
So let’s project the outcomes of the final nine games of the 2025 season using those numbers, starting with the improvement on offense.
Week 10 – Bucs vs. Patriots – 28-23 – L / 27 points per game still results in a loss
Week 11 – Bucs at Bills – 44-32 – L / 27 points per game still results in a loss
Week 12 – Bucs at Rams – 34-7 – L / 27 points per game still results in a loss
Week 13 – Bucs vs. Cardinals – 20-17 – W / 27 points per game still results in a win
Week 14 – Bucs vs. Saints – 24-20 – L / 27 points per game results in a win
Week 15 – Bucs vs. Falcons – 29-28 – L / 27 points per game still results in a loss
Week 16 – Bucs at Panthers – 23-20 – L / 27 points per game results in a win
Week 17 – Bucs at Dolphins – 20-17 – L / 27 points per game results in a win
Week 18 – Bucs vs. Panthers – 16-14 – W/ 27 points per game still results in a win
So the outcome with an offense that scores 27 points per game last year would have resulted in three more victories down the stretch, pushing Tampa Bay’s win total from eight to 11 during the 2025 season. The Bucs would have hosted a home Wild Card game.
Now let’s project the outcomes of the final nine games of the 2025 season using those numbers, finishing with the improvement on defense.
Week 10 – Bucs vs. Patriots – 28-23 – L / 21 points per game allowed results in a win
Week 11 – Bucs at Bills – 44-32 – L / 21 points per game allowed results in a win
Week 12 – Bucs at Rams – 34-7 – L / 21 points per game allowed still results in a loss
Week 13 – Bucs vs. Cardinals – 20-17 – W / 21 points per game allowed results in a loss
Week 14 – Bucs vs. Saints – 24-20 – L / 21 points per game allowed still results in a loss
Week 15 – Bucs vs. Falcons – 29-28 – L / 21 points per game allowed results in a win
Week 16 – Bucs at Panthers – 23-20 – L / 21 points per game allowed still results in a loss
Week 17 – Bucs at Dolphins – 20-17 – L / 21 points per game allowed still results in a loss
Week 18 – Bucs vs. Panthers – 16-14 – W/ 21 points per game allowed results in a loss
So playing better defense alone and allowing just 21 points per game affects the outcome of five games, flipping the results that result in three more wins and two more losses. The net effect is a 9-8 record in 2025 instead of an 8-9 record. Better defense alone without any improvement on offense would allow the Bucs to win the division and host a home Wild Card playoff game.