Bruins get worst-case outcome, lose out on top-10 pick from Leafs

Boston Bruins

The Bruins had a 58.1 percent chance of grabbing Toronto’s first-round pick on Tuesday night.

By Connor Ryan

May 5, 2026 | 7:56 pm

3 minutes to read

Lady luck was not on the Bruins’ side Tuesday night.

The Boston Bruins missed a great opportunity to land a top-10 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, as the Toronto Maple Leafs retained their 2026 first-round pick after winning the first overall pick via the NHL Draft lottery.

Had Tuesday’s lottery results pushed Toronto out of the top five, the pick would have gone to the Bruins, giving Boston’s playoff club a chance to add another legitimate prospect to its already thriving pipeline.

As a result of Toronto retaining its 2026 first-round pick, the Bruins will likely secure an unprotected 2028 first-round pick from Toronto — barring some additional complications if Toronto’s 2027 first-round pick is also a top-10 pick.

An unprotected 2028 first-round pick could lead to Boston getting another legitimate prospect a few years later.

However, Toronto winning the draft lottery — and potentially earning the opportunity to draft Gavin McKenna — is the worst-case scenario for Boston.

Not only does Atlantic Division rival Toronto receive a legitimate offensive threat to pair with Auston Matthews moving forward, but a Maple Leafs team that was once staring at a long-term rebuild may not necessarily be a lottery team in 2028 by the time Boston has an unprotected first-round pick.

And even if Toronto falters in the coming years, a 2028 first-round pick wouldn’t quite fit Boston’s current center’s current timeline if the Bruins are intent on making the most of David Pastrnak’s prime years when he enters his age-30 season in 2026-27.

Boston entered Tuesday’s draft with a 58.1 percent chance of securing Toronto’s pick, with the Leafs having a 41.9 percent chance of keeping that pick in the top five.

These were the odds entering the Draft Lottery in Toronto on Tuesday, according to Tankathon.

• Choice No. 1: 8.5 percent (Toronto retains)
• No. 2: 8.6 percent (Toronto retains)
• No. 3: 0.3 percent (Toronto retains)
• No. 4: nothing
• No. 5: 24.5 percent (Toronto retains)
• No. 6: 44 percent (move to Boston)
• No. 7: 14.2 percent (transfers to Boston)

In the end, the Maple Leafs jumped ahead of the rest of the field, with Penn State forward McKenna the likely target for Toronto.

Despite some tough luck on Tuesday, the Bruins still made good on the draft deal that put a potential 2026 first-round pick within their reach.

The Maple Leafs initially traded a conditional 2026 first-round pick (top-five protection), Fraser Minten, and a 2025 fourth-round pick to Boston in March 2025 in exchange for Brandon Carlo.

Boston appears to have already won the deal given the potential the 21-year-old Minten has shown in his first full NHL season, as Minten has scored 17 goals and averaged 15:33 of ice time over 82 games with Boston.

At the time, it looked like Toronto’s 2026 first-round pick would hit somewhere in the 20s — considering the Maple Leafs were seemingly fixed in the win-now window.

But the 2025-26 season was an outright disaster for the Maple Leafs, as injuries, decline and the departure of Mitch Marner led to a complete collapse.

Toronto ultimately finished the season with a record of 32-36-14 — and had the fifth-best odds of securing the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft.

Had the Maple Leafs’ pick dropped to sixth or seventh overall, it would have gone to the Bruins, giving an already retooled roster a prime opportunity to add to a young group of prospects led by James Huggins, Minten, Dean Letourneau, Marat Khusnutdinov, Will Zellers, and others.

Instead, the Bruins will need to wait a little longer to find out when Toronto’s pick will be transferred to them.

Toronto already traded its 2027 first-round pick to the Flyers last season in exchange for forward Scott Laughton, though there are strings attached to that pick if it is another top-10 pick.

According to the terms of the initial Bruins-Leafs dealPhiladelphia’s 2027 pick is a top-10 protected prospect.

So, if Toronto keeps their pick in 2026 and gets a top-10 pick in 2027, the Maple Leafs would have the option of giving their 27th first-round pick to either the Bruins or Flyers — with the other team getting an unprotected 2028 first-round pick as a result.

Given Toronto’s reluctance to help their longtime Original Six foe, it seems like a given that the Leafs would opt to give Boston an unprotected 2028 first-round pick rather than give them a top-10 pick in 2027.

If Boston wants a long-term rebuilding pick, Toronto’s unprotected 2028 first-round pick could make a solid return if they continue to struggle. But if Boston is trying to capitalize on the help of this current position now, the Bruins could flip their future first-round picks in order to add more immediate help.

Boston still retains its own 2026 first-round pick, one second-round pick, one third-round pick, three fourth-round picks, and one seventh-round pick in this upcoming draft.